Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Coming from Russia-leaning sources while being encouraged to search for this on the social media site belonging to a known Russian fanboy.

Yea, let's take any of that with a cr*p-tonne of salt and discount as Kremlin spin until substansiated.

Frankly it would be helpful for that nitwit Donnie to use such language. It would make it abundantly clear that the US isn't a partner to Europe anymore and that all planning should be made without them for the forseeable. It's likely gotta be done that way anyway, so no point stringing things along in the hope that Donnie will change his mind.

The art of the deal - Rush rush rush. The golf course is starting to dry out.

I kind of hope it's true.

One thing Europe doesn't do is rush anything. It doesn't need a duplicitous ally and could certainly do without hanging on waiting to see what he says next, which will cause more unnecessary delays.

I absolutely agree with Shirreff. Talking giant financial numbers is part bluster. The lead times for these weapon systems are too long to be of use to Ukraine in many instances - 2 years to make a SAMP/T SAM system. Lockheed makes about 500 PAC-3 MSE missiles for the Patriot system per year, with plans to ramp to 650 by 2027, However, Ukraine is but one customer and the order books have ballooned.

I don't think Ukraine is going to be able to buy weapons from the US and I suspect Trump will not allow transfer of advanced weapons to Ukraine, such is the depth of his submission to Putrid.

Realistically, the available weapons are really those already in service in European countries. Some, like fighter aircraft, have considerable skills and training hurdles. All up, the quickest and most realistic option for assistance to Ukraine given the comprehensiveness of the betrayal by the US, is for European countries to involve themselves directly.

I think that if every European country with a reasonable air force committed 50% of it's assets to a large combined CAP mission over Ukraine, The Orcs could be pushed to economic collapse fairly soon and it would largely mitigate the loss of US support.

Ukrainian and various European defence manufacturers made it clear time and time again they can ramp up quickly and are producing at below capacity simply due to low number of orders

Rheinmetal alone already produces more shells than US, Ukrainians themselves are making millions of drones and can make more

There’s 300bn of Russian money sitting in Brussels, that right there is enough to pay for this war well after Trump is gone in 4 years

Ukraine being "pushed back gradually" is only one interpretation of what's happening, and relates only to the line of direct contact between the two armies. What Russia is gaining is only what Ukraine has opted to cede, i.e. towns and villages that have been utterly destroyed, and for which the Russian's have paid an enormous price in terms of men and material.

BUT - and it's a big BUT - at the same time, Ukraine is progressively degrading Russia's most valuable source of income - it's oil storage, refining and export infrastructure - for the relatiely low price of a few hundred drones and a handful of missiles every few days. Despite the crippling damage being done 200, 500, 800km into Russia, Ukraine is not losing a single soldier in that aspect of the conflict.

Over and over again, we have reports from the Russian side of attacking groups being reduced to a few surviors (sometimes a single one) before ever they reach the line of contact. That is entirely due to Ukraine's dominance in the area of drone surveillance and drone warfare - and that is something that they themselves have developped at great speed in the last couple of years.

So even if the US tap (faucet?) is turned off overnight, there will be no instantaneous implications.

thats what should happen but ive no doubt that our fcukwits will blow that on a few more security huts/bicycle sheds and another bailout for developers/builders or rte…

Erdogan is an interesting one, as he's got his own NATO-friendly Turk-o-sphere pocket that he's trying to build up with Azerbijan (among others). I destablised Russia is in his benefit. Thanks to the Ukraine War, the Russian-sponsored Armenian exclave of Nagorno Karabach was defeated by the Turkish-backed Azeris. Thus ending a 40+ Year old frozen conflict dating back to the Soviet days. An area of the world that once used to be squarly in the domain of Moscow now finds itself under the influence of Ankara. In a way this even includes Armenia, who have since begun the work to move away from Russia and towards NATO / Europe.

Erdogan would likely prefer to see Russia to continue in a weakened state so that he can spread his influence further East to the other ex-Soviet Turkic nations. Strategically, Turkey staying in the fight also continues to make the Black Sea a potential southern NATO lake if you count the Ukrainians.

Ah Donnie….Mr "Art of the Deal" himself, making an absolute horror-movie style dog's dinner out of what could have been a constuctive trade deal that would have make him look awesome, but instead makes himself and the US appear completely unreliable in any form of a "deal".

Futhermore, if he wasn't such a dimwit he would have learned that an EU-membered Ukraine (or at least a Ukraine that was already linking into European logisitics…which had already started) would be easier / cheaper and more reliable when it came to collecting and transporting those minerals back to the US. Train-lines, massive Euroports…all that jazz. But no, lets listen to Vlad and how his buddies will keep sending cash to the Trump Org. to keep him solvent.

I think he's pretty much guarenteed that Ukraine goes down the EU route now, which is where they were heading anyway.

If we let Russia get their claws on it they'll use it to finance our own destruction. We have to use it now before "something" happens to it (glancing nervously at the US).

I don't really know much about these financial things, Is there a way for the Tangerine Toddler to get his little hands on this money?

Yes! I think Erdogan and Turkey is a very interesting side discussion on his own

It just shows that Russians and their propagandists who harp on about “multi-polar world” and “spheres of influence” and “geopolitics” didn’t think thru the implications for Russia if what they claim they want (they actually want a Cold War two superpower duality, but can’t claim that with straight face) actually materialises, and if one of these “poles” (such as China or Turkey) are in same neighbourhood as Russia and also contain undemocratic leaders with delusions of grandeur, historical axes and claims to grind and are greedy

Turkey and Erdogan want to regain turkeys position as the bottleneck thru which east/west trade goes (which made Ottoman Empire great) and more importantly be the path thru which gas and oil and energy travels thru with them getting a cut for doing nothing

This was has direct benefits to Turkeys arms industry (rumour is they are ones whom provided millions of shells to Czechia effort)

But it also made Turkey as the place thru which Gas and oil from Caucasuses (which you mentioned) and farther from Central Asia bypassing Russia whose infrastructure is being destroyed and are being wiped out as competitor, They also have plans to use Syria which mysteriously overthrew Putin’s best buddy recently as a way to get energy from Gulf, Saudis and new fields in Egypt and even Israel

Make no mistake Erdogan is no friend of western liberalism and democracy, but unlike Trump they are not stupid either

I suspect it’s only a matter of time before someone taps Trump on shoulder and point out he is destroying US arms and energy exports with his stupidity

Why would Ukraine trust the US again under Trump?

Trump could flip the table tomorrow on any deal he makes today just on a whim.

There's more long term security in building out capacity with your neighbours than anticipating the whims of the USA.

I don't see any real strategy from the Trump, only acting out as it suits.

It is a thing that bullies are so because they're afraid of being bullied, know how a person is afraid of being treated by how they treat others. Trump saying that Ukraine brought the invasion on themselves is like something his father probably said to him.

By all means Zelensky should always seek what he can get from the US for Ukraine's defense, but do so knowing that any agreement is subject to change on a whim.

How does that work in reality

A lot of the contracts are with private US companies and already paid for

Does he just say oh no they can’t sell now what contracted for because I’m sanctioning Ukraine?

That right there has massive implications and would overnight destroy Boeing, Lockheed, GD and so on and so forth, the whole of the US military industrial base that depends on not just the US military (whose spend he is also cutting), as other allies will say “wait if he’s doing that to Ukraine he can do that to our orders for F35s etc”

Indeed. There is no strategy. Supporters pretend to themselves that it's some kind of 4D chess but in reality he's a populist with no principles surrounded by sycophants.

They go at problems with hatchets, and when it doesn't work they blame. No one is held accountable, it's a free for all in the king's court.

There's the slim possibility that Trump's randomness combined with Putin's desire for ties with the US could equal some sort of erratic deal for Ukraine, but it's looking slimmer by the day.

Another cult thing like MAGA.

I won't be surprised if the likes of Reform split into pro Ukraine and pro Russia camps.