Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

The US has dpicm ,, gmlrs , and patriot missiles , Europe doesn't , add in the lack of 155mm shells in the Europe , and the lack of access to US military satellite info , and surveillance,

Then the humvees , and stingers ( already in short supply )

And that's before you get to the money and the US either lifting or easing sanctions, or just not really introducing new ones - although the new Ukrainian kinetic sanctions on oil refining ,pumping and export facilities seem very - effective ..

And meanwhile Scholz is still in a coma and won't send Taurus. Jesus wept.

All the talk about the peace is quite pointless. While Putin is alive, only he can decide whether to stop the war.

Trump knows that. That is why what Trump does makes sense in a perverted, immoral sense. The war can stop if Putin gets all he wants. The war stops, Trump gets the peacekeeper laurels. Done deal. No point in involving Europe or even Ukraine into that scheme.

Much, much more difficult solution is to make Ukraine and the EU stronger and push Russia out of Ukraine. This may not take that much time — faced with the united, strong Europe, Putin will cave in. And vice versa — if Putin sees a divided, undecisive Europe, he will continue throwing his last reserves into the meatgrinder in the hope that Ukraine breaks instead.

It's come from a position where a good friend who has a Ukrainian spouse….

Oh jaysus here we go again…..Im constantly amazed how regularly you seem to refer a Ukrainian 'friend' or 'neighbour' or 'someone you met'.

[Edit: just seen they are taking a holiday]

I think you're giving too much credit to Trump, there! Trump doesn't know anything, other than where to get a bucket of KFC and a steady supply of diet Coke.

Here's the thing: While Putin is alive, only he can decide whether to stop the war. … Trump knows that. That is why what Trump does makes sense in a perverted, immoral sense. The war can stop if Putin gets all he wants.

Straight off, Trump can't give Putin all he wants, because Putin has so monumentally messed up he can now never get "all" that he wants. Worse still - for Putin - he's stuck in a Catch-22 situation where he desperately needs the war to continue so as to keep things relatively stable at home, but the longer it goes on, the more unstable things at home are likely to get.

One of the Russian paramilitary groups made the point some weeks ago that the very worst thing that can happen now is an end to the conflict. They argued that all the highly trained, experienced batalions have been destroyed, with little more than 20% of the on-paper numbers being real soldiers, and maybe not even that much. (This matches what we're seeing in so many areas of the frontline). So if the war is declared over, all those conscripts and cripples and drug-addicts will head home as fast as their crutches can carry them, and the mighty Russian military (Second Greatest Army in the World) will collapse into a heap of medal-laden generals with no troops, no tanks and no idea what to do. Nothing Trump can do will fix that.

At the same time, we've also seen Ukraine steadily degrading Russia's air defence capabilities. Ukraine may not have total control over the skies, but almost every night now they can send a swarm of drones and missiles to any target of their choice in any part of Western Russia. Those targets are, of course, refineries, oil and gas pumping stations, storage tanks and munitions depots. To borrow someone else's quip: Russia will run out of refineries before Ukraine runs out of land. And every one of those strikes is a test run for new Ukrainian weapons tech.

So Putin is going to dither about, desperately hoping for a solution that'll keep him from falling out a window; Zelenskyy has good reason to dig his heels in and wait for the best possible outcome; but Trump needs this conflict to come to a full stop within 100 days, because that's already 99 days longer than he promised and he just doesn't have the attention span to stick with it longer than that.

Nobody who benefits from peace wants war, but peace also makes benefitting powers prone. Whatever mechanisms they put in place to prevent war seem to only account for the time in which they're created. They're not built to withstand shifts in the sands of geopolitics.

There is nothing more terrible than war. We should probably be a bit more forgiving of historical figures like Neville Chamberlain with respect to this. Much should be done to prevent it, but the ethos breaks down when you're confronted with someone who thinks they have more to gain through conflict than peace.

I forget who said it - a former British army man of some kind - that Britain's pre-WW2 defence spending was a pittance in comparison to what it ballooned to as they were forced to face the reality of what was happening on the continent. The same will probably have to happen now quite soon.

And the fact is that the way the USA is turning, it wouldn't surprise me if they start supplying Russia with weapons at some point in the not-too-distant future. They appear to be in the middle of a fairly inelegant political pivot towards that grim future as we speak.

It's hard not to be pessimistic at this point when you consider not only that but that two of the main European bulwarks of France and Germany are merely one election away from electing governments with notably pro-Russian sentiments themselves, and then who knows what the fk would happen? Ukraine being overran would seem like only a precursor.

You paint an appalling vista.

Also, according to Syrskyi Russian shelling was down 40%. 2024 the ratio dropped to 5 Ru shells for every Ukr shell

The Czech initiative has produced 1.6 million shells, the Nordics are increasing production. Germany ramping up. I don't think it's matching Russia yet but it's rising quickly

In separate news - another nice package for Ukraine from Germany

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/germany-increases-planned-military-assistance-to-ukraine/

The Federal Government of Russia has introduced increased tarriffs and energy consumption limits on it's population. Some obviously not happy.

Putin says it's to combat climate change.

Why can’t RTE call her up on her lies??

I think it's clear what Trump's domestic agenda is. He wants to apply his design on international affairs and wants to split European cohesion as much as Putin does.

His primary interest seems to be money though. The Telegraph have obtained a copy of the economic 'deal' he submitted to the Ukrainians and it was effectively a mafia style takeover of the country.

Trump isn't even the one to worry about, although he's no fan of the EU, it's true. People like Steve Bannon have been quite open about their efforts to split the EU apart. The idea is to turn Europe into a collection of states more or less at odds with each other and therefore unable to assert collective power on the world stage and bonded in economic vassalage to either the USA or Russia, depending on their geographical position on the continent and historical ties.

If Europe plays hardball with Trump on Ukraine, I think Trump will use the acrimony as a pretext to withdraw from NATO entirely and then we're in truly uncharted waters. Theoretically, Putin would then be free to ramp up the nuclear sabre rattling against the EU with little comeback. Now I'm not saying that Putin would follow through, but he would certainly hold up this high card to remind Europe that tough talk can only go so far.

Ukraine has been weaning itself off Chinese drones and now has the domestic capacity to manufacture 4 million a year.