Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

NATO without the US in the Euro area, which looks like it will effectively happen with Trump, will be in a serious period of disorganisation - naturally. Individually certain Euro nations are relatively strong, but acting together as one with the sudden drop of a key member will leave them in a period of vulnerability. They need to get their **** in gear, basically.

Russia will probe like hell, "accidentally" drag an anchor chain across a critical cable to "test" how Europe responses, pop a submarine up somewhere in territorial waters, etc, etc, etc - anything you can think of they will try

Putin wants one thing, a fractured NATO and a fractured Europe - their entire doctrine relies on it (their thinktanks actually thought this would happen with the invasion of Ukraine). When those fractures exist then it opens up possibilities for Putin to do things, leaks have shown they plan to absorb Belarus, they have plans for Moldova, they even have plans to try for a landbridge to Kalingrad (which is why the Polish military is building up so rapidly)

It sounds mental now, but then again so did the thought of Russia invading Ukraine any time before 2022.

Russia is at constant hybrid warfare against Europe - it can turn that dial up a good bit more.

There isn't a massive mega panic, but Europe needs to wake up much more than it is now. And beyond Trump's term, if another pro-Putin sympathiser gets in, we naturally need to have ironclad defenses.

There "friends of Russia" label has been thrown around so often it's lost meaning, but this is certainly one guy who deserves the label. Yet here he is, seemingly involved in "peace" talks.

I know Trump isn't exactly known for his reliability and consistency in statements but he has said more than once that Putin cannot be allowed to have a deal that he can feel he "won".

For all the bluster and rhetoric, I can't see Trump endorsing handing Russia what they want, nor backing Russia in publicly saying that Ukraine doesn't want peace.

They are right in saying that Europe has to do far more in terms of assistance and supporting its own coherent, unified defence that doesn't hinge on the US, but Russia walking away from this with some sort of positive deal is not in the US interest either.

Pfff…

Confirmation of Russian attack on Chernobyl

This is directly related to the boost Trump has given Putin. Russians feel they can do what they want with even more impunity

While Trump is a registered self obsessed (unt, he's right about Europe nothing pulling their weight in relation to military spending. The European attitude to defence considering its resources has been a joke since WW2.

My bother has spent the last 20 years contracting to the USA military between Rammstein and Sigonella(other than about 2:years between Pearl Harbor and Afghanistan). The US presence in Europe is huge since WW2 along with the costs for that presence.

There is nothing new with regard to American isolationism, we have just gotten used to them "policing" conflicts all over the globe. Given the threats to their strategic interests with an aggressive Chinese regime, Iran and the USA own economic position they are spread pretty thin and their adversaries know it.

Europe for the most part has lost the stomach for war, with the exception of Poland and the Nordic countries. Germany are a joke, France can't be trusted with regard to Russia and the UK military is in very serious decline over the last 20 years. Liberal democracies are at an immediate disadvantage with having to deal with a mafia/police state which has always prioritised military spending and are deaf to public opinion on the human and economic cost of war.

I'd be wary of the idea that Russia is about to collapse any time soon; historically they can endure suffering and death like no other nation.

With only European backing the idea that Ukraine can get back to 2022 borders in very unlikely; and impossible with two hands tied behind their back approach to date. Has Europe the stomach to fully engage?

I was in Kiev in 2016/17 and at that stage you would regularly see militia vehicles home from the front; this has been a very long struggle for many Ukrainians in the east and south; if a peace deal isn't made soon how long should it go on for?

There is no silver bullet out there for Ukraine and they are going to have to make some hard decisions.

Trump's words haven't helped but what he says and what he does are often two different things.

It's a message

"We can **** you with radiation"

All timed.

Edit

Following Trump's statement last night suggesting the worlds 3 global powers should discuss halving each others military expenditure a possible tri-lateral meeting looks on the cards soon.

President Xi will attend the Victory parade in Moscow and also Trump has been invited but not confirmed yet his attendance, so maybe that could be the venue.

Another concerned mouthpiece who has nothing constructive to say except "we need to stop the killing" trying in vain to argue their weak case. It really is comedic. These people don't change their opinions unless Russia tells them to. To hell with facts and lessons from history, I'll parrot what I'm told to. None so blind as those who will not see.

Great let em all do that, European euros will stretch further in eliminating Russian Nazis then

The only reason Xi would agree to that is their own economic position, but given his trajectory to date it's hard to see him hitting reverse or even pause.

Putin will look like the poor relation at the wedding of the year

would it be the case Russian society progresses that it will have a less and less ‘stomach for war? As time marches on society will become more knowledgable, more and more networking will be taking place, people will become more and more mobile, living standards may improve, they might become less subservient as time marches on, etc, etc, etc.

The nation has risen up before. Also, Remember the mothers/wives/friends of the marines/soldiers who perished in that submarine a few years ago. They came together to protest in a very public way. Quite often you need only one spark to state a fire. And also remember that poor Tunisian lad who set fire to himself when the local authorities. Refused a trading licence to him to make a few bob. It was the start of an outbreak of serious violence throughout a number of ‘ Arab states’. So that ‘spark’ can be very dangerous