Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

Can you explain to us what Trump achieved?

You just know it's gonna be investing in crypto lol!

Or I have vibes like the mafia using the teamsters pension as there piggy bank.

Trump backed off the tariffs for 30 days - Trudeau agreed to implement their 1.3b border plan - a border plan that was agreed last November, its ready to go. Its all smoke and mirrors - very damaging smoke though.

Meanwhile look what Musk is doing.

Saw this on Reddit, and it sums up just how basic Trump is at all of this. For anyone that thinks he is a master negotiator and knows all the ways…he doesn’t. He is just a joker at this.

Long post, but well worth the read.

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don’t know, I’m an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of “The Art of the Deal,” a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you’ve read The Art of the Deal, or if you’ve followed Trump lately, you’ll know, even if you didn’t know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call “distributive bargaining.”

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you’re fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump’s world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can’t demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren’t binary. China’s choices aren’t (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don’t buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you’re going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won’t agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you’re going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn’t another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is  impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here’s another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn’t even bringing checkers to a chess match. He’s bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

Dead cat without looking like a buffoon like Boris.

I'm left wondering where Musk intends moving the federal employee and private citizens data he has access to now, as in new secure data base, given that the new dept he's been assigned by Trump is only out of the starting blocks. More important, does Trump know or care if Musk intends the data he holds to be provided to another quango or non-governmental agency.

He got nothing though, and has the potential to lose a lot more. The 1.3bn border plan that was approved months ago will be enacted, however Canadas leaders now know there is broad public support for pushing back against Trumps measures if required.

Canada will work with Trump to avoid tariffs over the next month but you can guarantee they’ll also be working on plans to soften the impact should Trump pull the trigger - they will not be rushing to bend the knee.

The tariffs were real, his bluff was called and he folded like a lawn chair.

The boarder deal had been in place since last year, Trump got nothing new, and has had to enter into a task force with Canada. Sounds like a serious win there…sure.

Trump got what he wanted (with what already existed) and Trudeau got a new task force.

Now, you were saying something about delusion?

Somewhat hilarious watching Trump fans spinning this as his genius negotiating skills...

Another win for Trump. The threat of tarrifs work. Btw I didn't see Biden reverse the 10% tarrif that Trump put on China in his first Term. I'd say there will be a deal in the next couple of days with China.

This was 3 days ago…

Some negotiator right there, isn’t he?

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2024/12/government-of-canada-announces-its-plan-to-strengthen-border-security-and-our-immigration-system.html

And also for reference, here is the border plan that Trudeau was referencing…

The date, December 17th, before Trump was in office. Oh the glory. And if anyone REALLY thinks Trump had any influence in this (he isn’t mentioned at all, by the way), it takes quite a while to work something like this up…so, yeah.

Trump folded like a deck of cards.
Comical

One thing that is absolutely certain is that companies cannot operate in uncertainty and many will now being actively planning to move supply chains away from the US.

I worked with a global multinational after the Brexit vote (and led the Brexit planning group but that’s neither here nor there) and based on rhetoric from the British government, proposed investment plans to the UK were moved and and supply from UK to EU was realigned.