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Trump - The positives - (see Mod note in OP)

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,648 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    In the coarsest sense, Trump did well by average Americans by continuing the GOP-led jihad against the IRS.

    In Trump 1.0, the IRS shrunk mostly by not replacing retiring/quitting employees. This meant fewer audits and lower tax take by the government, by percentage of GDP, versus the past. Tax fraud is likely up, and people not paying taxes is up as well.

    Biden budgeted something like $60bn more for the IRS as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.

    If you ignore the 'weaponizing the IRS' junk the GOP fed to their base (later proven to be false), a big IRS means more audits for more people. One group that got more audits with a big IRS versus a smaller one, was those receiving Earned Income Tax Credits. These are typically poorer Americans - Congress decided aid could be given to people most efficiently through tax credits. This is another idea that really isn't good - people need money in their pockets - but it was better than nothing. Audit rates for minority EITC recipients went up under Biden.

    With Trump 2.0, expect a smaller IRS, fewer audits and more people not filing taxes. This last point really gripes me, as someone that has dutifully filed their taxes for nearly 50 years, enduring the immensely complex process (Irish taxpayers have it so easy by comparison). Also, the IRS online systems are, overall, pretty pathetic and difficult, too. I don't expect them to improve either in Trump 2.0, they got a tad better under Biden. But, I think I'll have less chance of being audited.

    And remember, this isn't a rich/poor thing. Everyone files taxes no matter how little you make - you still have to tell the US Government how little it was. Everyone's subject to an audit. We've all got anecdotes over how bad that experience can be, too.

    So, yeah, Trump 2.0, smaller IRS, I can support that.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,555 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The IRS brings in about 7$ for every 1$ of funding and it is all money owed to the government. A smaller IRS is purely to enable rich people avoid massive swathes of taxes.

    It very much is a rich poor thing, much like the original Trump tax cuts that exploded the deficit. A few low and middle income people may benefit as a side effect, but that is not the point and the overwhelming benefit will go elsewhere - while chumps end up paying for it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,489 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Huh? A requirement that everyone bend the knee to entitled, ego-driven claptrap is pretty much the hallmark characteristic of this administration. Trump is literally famous for demanding this.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,198 ✭✭✭✭Deja Boo


    "It seems like we can't have a conversation about the positives Trump…"

    He has positively proven himself to be callous, selfish, unstable, ugly and dumb…. and those are his good qualities.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,648 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    The money that the IRS brings in, is an enormous amount of fines and penalties - it's not your tax liability. Often, if the person has enough assets they can contest the fines and occasionally win (in tax court, of all things.) Tax court isn't available for a lot of people, though, and it's a difficult process. But, people do win. A smaller IRS will mean fewer inappropriate fines. And, again, anecdotes and horror stories abound of IRS overstepping and destroying people.

    Sorry, no one likes the tax collector, a smaller one is a good thing.

    TBF, it's really hard to find anything positive about the Convict President.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,874 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Mod: @Dick phelan will not be responding to any posts.
    Reminder to all - no discussing the trans topic or you will follow Mr. Phelan!
    Several posts deleted.

    I'll repost my earlier warning…



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,505 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Well we got another positive over the weekend with Trump's tariffs; Trump voters will finally get a chance to learn first hand how tariffs works since they think it's the sending country paying them (or that it will mean production moving back into the USA). I'd hope they connect it to the inflation pressure it brings (and hence no lowering of interest rates) as well but I think that may be to advanced of a lesson to expect them to pick up on (or the fact that the original Chinese tariffs 92% had to be returned to American farmers as subsidies as China stopped buying soybeans etc.).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,340 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Regarding the tariffs, can somebody explain to me like I'm 5 why Trump has done this and what he expects to happen? What is the benefit to the US for implementing tariffs?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,505 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Several Republicans have stated they will not increase the borrowing cap in the new budget (due in March) and insist that any new tax cuts etc. have to be funded with in the budget it self (currently ever budget has had an increased cap in borrowing for the state because it was not balanced); there are currently more than enough Republicans saying this that they will scupper the budget (and the Republican conference in Trump's Maralago earlier did not solve this). This is a problem because Trump wants to give himself and friends hundreds of billions of tax cuts which have to be funded in said budget; Trump think that hole can be covered by tariffs instead because tariffs are paid to the state (in essence a new form of VAT but more hidden as you don't see a separate line on the receipt but rather in a price increase).

    To sell that to his voters however Trump is claiming (I don't want to speculate if he's stupid enough to believe it or not) that the countries hit by the tariff will pay it (they don't; the importer to USA pays the tariffs) and that it will force manufacturing back to the USA (it will not; it will increase product prices instead because it's still cheaper than to manufacture it in the USA if even possible).

    The net result is higher prices (tariffs passed on to the consumer) which drives up inflation pressure which stops any chance for the Fed to lower interest (it's already being stick at 2.8% with a target at 2% before tariffs) which in turn makes it more expensive to borrow money (lowering investments in new factories etc.). And of course as already noted Canada & Mexico have already activated counter tariffs making exports more expensive into their countries (or in some cases simply stop buying American products or let American companies compete for contracts) which hurt both sides as companies will have to shrink down to fit the new lower business volumes.

    Hence TLDR is - Trump thinks tariffs will plug the hole in the American budget to let him give himself tax cuts while in reality he'll tank the economy further. Said tariffs are likely to have to go to further support companies losing business (as with the Chinese tariffs he implemented 92% of the tariffs had to be paid back to the American farmers to compensate loss of soy bean sales as an example) and unemployment driving down tax collection further.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,823 ✭✭✭Glaceon


    He seems to be implying that he wants control of Canada based on his latest ramblings on whatever social media platform he's using. Suggesting they should become "our Cherished[sic] 51st state"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,669 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    His tariffs is equivalent to his first Presidency where Mexico will pay for the wall at the border……

    I don't know why he's doing it to Mexico who has so much power over the border….

    Tomorrow they could just stop policing the borders and the illegal immigration will be hundred times worse. You'd want to keep Mexico on board and work with them….

    Madness

    Post edited by Headshot on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 910 ✭✭✭Dr Robert


    Good enough for the people who voted for him. They'll have less in their pockets. Ridiculous stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    He seems to be obsessed with trade deficits. He wants to reduce the US trade deficit.

    He thinks tariffs on foreign imports, and more protectionism, will evnetually reduce the US trade deficit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,644 ✭✭✭✭billyhead


    He will destroy the US economy. The price of eggs were the least of the Americans problems. Trump is going to cause further poverty but as long as he and his wealthy buddies are rich what does he care.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,340 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Trade defecit means USA buys more from Canada or Mexico or China than those countries do from USA?

    If you're the biggest economy, won't that always be the case? Manufacturing and such happens offshore.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,340 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    So basically it's acting like a new tax because he wants to cut the tax for the wealthy and obviously can't add an income tax or anything like that.

    Why specifically has he targeted the 3 countries he has though?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,505 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Biggest trade volumes and excuses to go after them basically.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 211 ✭✭Terrier2023


    I am enjoying his presidency so far he is definitely an alfa president and the world needs alfas for a while too many pussies in governments all over the world ! I like his back to basics and common sense and his attempt to regain a sense of pride in the country once more. American goods made in America tax cuts to bring American companies home, tax breaks to manufacture in America. He is a patriotic man and he wants other Americans to be patriotic too. We sure could do with a bit of patriotism her in Ireland. All we have are career politicians who couldnt give a shite about our serious problems, we the voters & tax payers problems.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    The trade balance is the difference between the value of exports and imports of goods and services.

    It can be expressed in terms of just goods, or just services, or both combined.

    Here is our data for goods only:

    image.png

    As you can see, we have a large trade surplus in goods with the USA, which is why we are often mentioned.

    This worries me a bit, but I am more worried about change to the CT regime, and future FDI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yes, a tariff is a tax. A tariff is an example of a protectionist policy, designed to favour domestic production.

    Some people mistakenly think that the foreign country pays the tariff, which is false.

    The US importer pays the tariff on imported goods to the US Govt.

    He has targeted countries that run large trade surpluses with the USA, and also because of issues like flows of illegal immigrants and illegal drugs.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I have a feeling you meant to use the word "alpha"?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,874 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Mod: @Terrier2023 please read the charter for the politics forum if you wish to post here. Consider this a final warning!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,416 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    This does seem like a truss moment for trump.

    Maybe truss will get her wish and tanking future western economies will be called "doing a donald".

    Also good to see the sycophants dealt with sharply. Seeing the odd one over on current affairs whose only contribution is to pretend the president that authoritarians love is somehow in charge.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,505 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Sadly it's not going to be that dramatic; yes the markets will go down (early indicators at about 2%) but it's not going to be enough. Personally I think the first real potential Truss moment may come in March with the new budget and borrowing ceiling; the only question is who'll give in first (Trump or the hard line republicans who want a balanced budget; my bet is on Trump but I could see some D donkeys swinging "to save the workers") which is likely to lead to a funding shortage (again). The question then becomes on how long the shut down will last (last time it was 35 days under Trump and that was the longest in US history) as I'm sure Elon et al will see it as an excellent opportunity to save money in practice. That could prove to a Truss moment with lowering of credit scores on US bonds etc. which would push up the interest rate on their bonds (and hence put further pressure on the budget as the interest repayment is already the largest cost).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,188 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,489 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    The gist of it is "with an under-resourced IRS, Americans have a better chance of getting away with not complying with their tax reporting obligations, and being able to do this makes their lives better". But of course their lives are made worse by higher rates of tax default and tax fraud, resulting in reduced government revenue, resulting in spending cuts and very possibly resulting in an increase in tax rates in an attempt to make up the shortfall. Avoiding the bureaucratic faff of having to fill out even a quite lengthy tax return doesn't look like much of a benefit to offset against this.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,505 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Depends on where you come from; it's not new news that IRS targeted poor families (as they are more likely to make mistake as they can't pay an accountant and have lawyers to dispute findings) and the answer of course is to fix the tax system. However, that's such a complete mess with so many vested interest that no one want to even start to consider the mammoth task that would involve (basically scrap it and start fresh is the only realistic approach) esp. in today's environment and instead they will keep adding exception, patches etc. to it making it close to impossible to do without an accountant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,188 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Nor does the prospect of potential legal proceedings for tax evasion



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,648 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    By that reasoning, though, spending can never be cut as someone loses a goodie. This isn't Ireland with a constant source of external money that's generated without investment by Ireland, the products being produced (Megacorp IP licensing) require little or no investment by Ireland. Ireland, for instance, refuses to pay down its debt despite recent huge tax windfalls like the Apple decision, instead, it's government wastes the money or simply hands it over to the citizenry to drive up inflation. It doesn't invest in programs to improve education and it's healthcare funding approach is teacups bailing the Titanic.

    The USA does have to pay for things from revenue it itself generates, so spending cuts are important.

    Increasing tax rates in the USA on those most likely to be able to pay them seems reasonable to me and is something being widely clamored for, to solve the 'income distribution' problem.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,669 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Looks to be another win for Trump and his Tariffs bullying policy



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