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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

1874875877879880943

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I can understand this. There is also the ethical question of why they should pay taxes to fund a state that consistently works against their own best interests, or to fund pensions that they themselves will never have.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    In the middle east, it's a tax haven and the workers benefit with , am I correct in saying, no income taxes ? So a Canadian mate said, the Canadians want to know, if they are sitting on hundreds of billions, possibly trillions, why are they , like here, paying so much tax. If prices rise here say e50,000 a year. That is e100,000 after interest has been paid and that is AFTER tax!!!

    Things are getting far worse if you're looking to buy... there is no rental availability, but I'm assuming rental prices aren't increasing by ten percent pet year?

    You'd think, being a tax haven, they would extend some of that ridiculous generosity shown to companies with more money than God, to peasant workers... but no… this is very relevant to house prices. I mean they are rising more each year on average, or certainly in Dublin, than the comedically low entry point of the marginal rate of tax



  • Posts: 553 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    From someone who is currently trying to buy in Kilkenny as a single person its an absolute **** show at the moment over the last five years. Cheaper houses are up nearly 50K since Covid, house sold at 175K three years ago now 230k asking, houses at 200k now at 260k asking.

    Lucky enough my rent is 750 for a small one bed apartment but if i somehow get evicted and can't get a place i'll be moving country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Looking back (I left during lockdown) the worst aspect is/was the way EAs use the sellers-market as a licence to act complete A-holes rather than the out-of-control prices.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Irish EAs provide such a shocking service for the amount of money they get.

    The housing market is bad enough as it is, but the sleazy / rude / incompetent estate agents are just the icing on the cake. They're like car dealers from 30 years ago, before the internet brought some customer service to the industry.

    Some sort of innovation that shakes up the buying process can't come soon enough.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,625 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Poland also have a much bigger differential between property and population, they estimate they are short of 4 million units to house the people living there and its just as well Ireland had not got this discrepancy to begin with and its just as well Poland population is falling or it would be worse

    https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/10/07/poland-records-eus-highest-house-price-growth-for-third-consecutive-quarter/



  • Administrators Posts: 56,215 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Several research papers on recipients of ftb grants have found that for a large proportion 

    A. They did not need it to purchase

    B. They purchased or built a bigger home than they would have without the grant

    You are talking about the Parliamentary Budget Office reports that get covered in the media. There's also a Mazars report.

    And the report said about 30% may not have needed HTB, i.e. 70% did need it. Both reports report significant concern with self builds which appear to be significantly skewing the numbers.

    However, on the point that was made about HTB inflating prices, all the reports are clear.

    The PBO report stated that the HTB impact on prices in the market was, and I quote, "very small". The Mazars report goes a bit more detailed on this point:

    The research indicates that many of the risks that were perceived when HtB was introduced have not come to pass. There is not definitive evidence that HtB pushed up the price of new houses. Certainly new builds have a large and growing premium over the price of existing houses. However, this existed before HtB. Importantly, when prices are adjusted to reflect quality improvements in new houses relative to existing houses, the apparent impact in the raw data disappears. This is particularly the case in areas where prices were already high and were up against the affordability limit. It is also not the case that the prices that were paid for new homes by people who received HtB relief were above new house prices in the economy in general. In fact, they were slightly lower, likely because of the price eligibility cap.

    The notion that HTB is impacting affordability negatively in any way that is meaningful is nonsense.

    All of the reports suggest that the HTB scheme is poorly targeted. Mazars recommended withdrawing it, but also said that now (at the time of writing) was not the time to withdraw it.

    Despite the problems that have been identified, now is not the time to withdraw HtB. Because of this, it is recommended that the HtB scheme should be extended in its current format for a period of two years to expire at the end of 2024.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    A whopping 69% of Ireland's 25-year-olds are still living with their parents

    https://jrnl.ie/6606062



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    What is their plan ? Live at home until they buy or inherit?

    Or do it for years, can't handle it after a while.. end up sharing and being gouged on rent, then can't save enough for a home...

    Get On the housing list ASAP , as soon as 18... or just get out of here, earn far more money abroad with a far better quality of life. Sun etc...

    They spent years in college. They should probably spend ten minutes thinking about their future...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    Unless you have family help to buy a house or wish to delay growing up by staying at home into your mid 20s, the housing crisis in Ireland is not worth fighting. Emigration is the better option. RTE News had interviews with young people on Instagram about emigration and lots of bright youngsters giving their opinion that they were going to emigrate because of the lack of opportunities. It really shows how the country is only thriving for home owners while those that rent or live at home see the country as failing. Sad to see so much of the money in the last 2 decades wasted on propping uo the housing market rather than developing the country to become a more liveable, modern and sustainable place to call home; it does feel like the place is one financial crisis away from being back in the early 00s in terms of how it has evolved and developed; strip away the Googles and Facebooks; as well as the many expensive meals out and the problems in education, healthcare, infrastructure and housing will suddenly highlight two lost decades.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    The real world figures don't back that up, though. We still have more Irish citizens returning than emmigrating per year.

    Lots of young people talk about leaving, but when they look at the rental markets in the most common places to go like London/NYC/Toronto/Sydney its not a whole lot better there.

    And of the ones that do go, the vast majority come back in their early 30s when it comes time to settling down.

    Young people would be better off focusing on getting out the vote here amonst their peer group.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    All of the options here are stomach churning. Housing completions, dont even matter that much, affordability is massive… If wages are poor here, property prices eye watering and you lose fifty percent of your salary, over a nothing threshold, this will slow down the return of irish citizens, back to the state…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    But its the exact same scenario in every major emigration destination for young Irish people. We've never emigrated in numbers to the EU, its always been the Anglosphere, and every major Anglosphere city has its own housing crisis right now.

    Thats why our emigration numbers aren't actually significantly increasing, its very different to after the 2008 crash when for example Australia and Canada were doing far better than Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭shoegirl


    Most emigration was traditionally to the UK, later on to continental Europe, and when long term residential visas were easier to get, US, Canada or Australia.

    Most of the people "emigrating" are really going on 1-2 year holiday visas and to countries which have huge residential property crises of their own. So they come back in the end, potentially with a bigger deposit than they might have saved here. Yes, a few do stay but I'd say the bulk of 20-somethings going on a holiday visa won't qualify for long term work visas. The age related thing too does mean you have to go before you hit 30 or 35 or not at all. I remember looking into it when I was younger but the cost to me at the time was completely prohibitive, there was just no way I could have done it back then. One thing I do notice is that a lot of entry level salaries still start low here and take a long time to creep up. Anybody who doesn't job hop every 2 to 3 years has a good chance of being left behind on a salary they'd never buy anything on, so it might be just as attractive to go somewhere where salaries are double or more what you might get here, and there's nice weather and living conditions to go with it.

    Its often single people too, as single people are far harder hit here than couples with 2 incomes would be when it comes to housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭shoegirl


    This is also the case - another point was that in the late 00s you could get 2 AUS dollars for every euro so the minimum cash requirement for travelling was easier to reach. Plus also there was huge demand in Australia particularly for skilled crafts trades so there was a large body of people who had little chance of getting work here who were qualified for longer term visas and pretty much guaranteed work over there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Hang on a minute... its not the same. Those other countries, have proper infrastructure for a start and you don't lose half your income over a nothing threshold. The latter being a massive factor... you are getting seriously cosmopolitan cities, Dublin is anything but...

    Also getting a room or place to rent in Dublin is nigh on impossible, I don't believe for a minute, its anywhere near as extreme even in other places with housing issues, which is everywhere the majority of our immigrants are going... but I'd love to see proper break down on like for like rents, Dublin v Melbourne etc and pay, and net income...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,914 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    You keep using the line "lose half your income", max tax is 40% and this is only on earning over €44k, which you may see as "a nothing threshold" but doesn't make it so.

    edited to adjust correct figures.

    Post edited by Rocket_GD on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 350 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    70% of 25 year olds live at home with their parents in Ireland today. This is an abject failure of modern Irish society and you can talk of corporation tax, high earners and high house prices but for these people living at home well into their 20s, that is an utterly depressing place to be. From relationships to cutting the apron strings, the country is nurturing a generation of adult babies and this will have profound impacts on things like the future birth rate (immigrants will need to replace home born children) and provision for retirement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 692 ✭✭✭dashdoll


    Apologies for the rant but I'm feeling SO demoralised at the moment. Looking for a 2bed apt in South Dublin. Knew it would be hard but not this hard. Single buyer, late 30s so really want to get on the ladder.

    I've spent every Saturday morning for the past 4 months going to countless viewings. I must have bid on 15 or more at this stage but I'm getting outbid every single time by couples mainly or cash buyers in a couple of instances and I'm looking at apts with asking price of maybe 30 or 40k to spare in my budget.

    I went sale agreed before Xmas but it didn't work out. Couldn't believe my luck tbh. It was an off market sale.

    Went to 5 viewings on Saturday, bid on 4. All were advertised at 350 to 380k. One is now at 445k today. Others around 400k so I'm out again. This is all after first viewing with more open viewings planned. I'm in a position where I'm so lucky to have approval for 300k and a 90k deposit which I saved over many years and still can't seem to get anywhere. I do realise I'm in a better position than many.

    I know there is no magic wand but it just feels like the odds are really stacked against me and feeling sorry for myself today. I honestly don't know what to do at this point. I need to be in and around this location for a number of reasons so I'm quite limited. Honestly considering giving up completely at this point and just revisiting in a year or so but seems like my savings will be even worth less then.

    I need to be around this area for a number of reasons including thst I have a family member with additional needs nearby who I help a lot.

    I have considered moving to co. Kildare buy it wouldn't work really for family reasons and I wouldn't know a single soul there.

    I wonder should I just pause for now but things could be even worse next year.

    Apologies again for the rant. Hope others are getting on better.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,914 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    I was discussing income tax, which is calculated as per below. The point being not everyone loses half their income as poster is suggesting.

    https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money-and-tax/tax/income-tax/how-your-tax-is-calculated/

    The first part of your income, up to a certain amount, is taxed at 20%. This is known as the standard rate of tax and the amount that it applies to is known as the standard rate tax band.

    The rest of your income is taxed at the higher rate of tax, 40%.

    Standard rate cut-off points
    Amount taxed at 20% (any extra is taxed at 40%)

     

    2025

    2024

    2023

    2022

    2021

    Single person

    €44,000

    €42,000

    €40,000

    €36,800

    €35,300

    Lone parent

    €48,000

    €46,000

    €44,000

    €40,800

    €39,300

    Married couple with one income

    €53,000

    €51,000

    €49,000

    €45,800

    €44,300

    Married couple with 2 incomes (the increase is limited to amount of 2nd income - see example below)

    Up to €88,000

     

    Up to €84,000

     

    Up to €80,000

     

    Up to €73,600

     

    Up to €70,600

     



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    47.1% over €44k
    52.1% over €70k

    40% income tax

    8% USC

    4.1% PRSI

    Can name them whatever you like. They all come off your income just the same!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Prices are going to increase, its government policy… are you currently renting? Laughable, here is bloody prime example! Of someone capable of borrowing a serious sum of money, still cant afford a home… MEANWHILE, thousands of welfare layabouts, are put up in new build apartments in south dublin, for nothing… no management fee of thousands a year either… Paid for by working people, who cant get a place of their own. This is going to start causing serious resentment issues and is morally corrupt, beyond belief. it is also for obvious reasons, becoming a bigger issue, as property prices increase ten per cent a year, the benefit of getting housing for next to nothing versus actually paying market rent, is an obscene redistribution of wealth and resources…

    Where in south dublin are you looking? its a big area… Also, are you sure you want an apartment?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    thank you! call it the tooth fairy tax if they want. Can i opt out of PRSI and USC, Gary? you know its funny, a few years back, staff on the marginal rate, turned down over time if they were into the marginal rate of tax… Because they are working for half time… But they are obviously all idiots…

    What do you think of the special tax arrangements in place , usually for American workers, because of how uncompetitive our taxation system is?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Been there, it’s miserable. One of the most awful experiences in life.

    My only advice. Comprise on the apartment and be willing to pay more than you ‘think it’s worth’ to get the misery over with as fast you can. It’ll always feel a bit uncomfortable. You’ll wish it was cheaper.

    But 2 years from now you’ll have your own place. Your salary will have gone up, your tax bill will have gone down and you’ll barely remember what you paid for it.

    If you’re currently renting. The probability you’ll be better off waiting a year when paying a 6%-8% rental yield and salaries are inflating at 5% and you’ll be a year older so your borrowing capacity will fall is pretty close to 0%.

    If you’re living at home. Life’s too short.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,702 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    What to do ,really depends on your current living situation and costs… Also, if **** hits the fan, I would not want to be stuck in an apartment, many people arent long out of negative equity, from the last collapse. It isnt a problem if you are happy where you are, but many were trapped… Thinking getting a step "on the ladder" was all that mattered…

    You need to be thinking two steps ahead, not one…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Define "proper infrastructure". In plenty of American and Australian cities having a car is as required as Dublin, and the suburban sprawl is even worse.

    Dublin is more "cosmopolitan" than most Anglosphere cities these days, if foreign born population is the definition, which it usually is.

    Median house price in Sydney is €880,000. Median rent is €550 per week. Have a look yourself at the figures for Irish emigrant hot spots like Toronto, Melbourne, London, NYC, Boston etc - they're as bad, or worse, than Dublins.

    Again, the data is really clear on this - there is no wave of emigration in Ireland:

    "In the year to April 2024, 30,000 Irish citizens returned to the State while 34,700 Irish people emigrated, leading to a net outflow of 4,700 Irish citizens from the State."

    During the 1980s, or early 2010s, there was a net outflow approaching ten times that amount leaving per year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    The large numbers of young people living at home is absolutely a failure of the state's housing policy, but thats not at all related to the point I made.

    I simply stated that young Irish people are not emigrating in large numbers, largely because the housing market in all of our traditional emigration locations is as bad as Dublin right now. Which the data very much backs up, as I posted above.

    People are talking a big talk about emigrating, but once they actually look into it the vast majority are not doing so.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Poster has a 30% deposit. Negative equity won’t happen. A drop in prices post purchase would actually be helpful to upsize.

    If prices did somehow utterly collapse. Banks will stop lending. Poster may likely have lost his job. Way better to be in a mortgaged home than rental at that point!


    Also, some people go on about apartments like they’re prison cells. Very Irish thing. They’re absolutely grand!



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