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Forming the next Irish Government - policies and personalities

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    When you no longer stand for anything but the maintenance of power you will hold on to it for a while.

    The opposition just need to bide their time and watch your combined vote fall until there are no more assorted grifters and parish pump opportunists left to shore you up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,925 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    He may be still nursing some wounds over this episode, feel he has something to prove:



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,953 ✭✭✭Hibernicis


    The one and only accomplishment of the current opposition is biding their time. And at the rate they are going they will be biding it long into the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,925 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    post deleted



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,925 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    post deleted



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  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The main opposition currently don't stand for anything so they are probably safe enough.

    Will be interesting to see if SF still have a populist approach going forward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    From observance the main opposition refused to be something or 'stand for something' they weren't and didn't chase a vote they could not stomach even if it meant not getting into power.

    Will that pay dividends, who knows. But I know what side I want to be on. Let the zero sum game FF FG are insisting on playing (with some brazen aplomb I have to admit - Lowry etc) continue, the circus is just getting going.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,873 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Can anyone explain why FF/FG has installed so many Independent TDs in Ministerial posts across Government, including two at Cabinet, plus Impartial Verona presiding in the Dáil?

    FF/FG only needed one extra vote to form a government after Verona became CC. Could FF/FG not induce a single TD from outside their ranks to vote for MM, the only viable candidate, as (temporary) Taoiseach?

    Has the ghost of Tony Gregory been exorcised from Leinster House? FF/FG have paid a high price for a quiet life in the Dáil but they have only brought the political acrimony indoors.



  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    But their strategic ambiguity on the issue lost them some of the left as exampled by Coppinger refusing to vote for MLMD.

    Will be interesting to see if they can recover some of the lost left vote.



  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Even the SF friendly The Ditch has called out SF for not standing for anything

    https://www.ontheditch.com/sinn-fein-lost-momentum/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,016 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Because they don't want another election before the end of 2025?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    For 'strategic ambiguity' see major disappointment that they didn't take the bait those with no moral compass wanted them to take.
    We all saw the salivating and 'advice' here and among elements if the commentariat on the turn they would have to take if they wanted that vote.



  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Just took them how many years to act. Or was it the opinion polls that pushed them into action?

    The left certainly noticed SF shift to the right.

    https://www.socialistparty.ie/2024/07/sinn-fein-immigration-and-a-further-shift-to-the-right-pbp-should-cease-advocating-for-sf/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So to counter you post individual opinions.

    I wonder would the writer have changed his 'opinion' after the election where SF saw off the far right and held on to their core vote.
    And I love the way you pivot to holding up opinions of left pundits as correct that you would ordinarily rail against. 😁



  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How did they see off the far right, what's the evidence?

    They invited the far right in and then lost them because they realised SF were willing to go pro or anti immigration depending on which way the wind was blowing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,925 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    FF/FG only needed one extra vote to form a government after Verona became CC. Could FF/FG not induce a single TD from outside their ranks to vote for MM, the only viable candidate, as (temporary) Taoiseach?

    Are you being facetious here? In the real world governments cannot set out on the basis of a majority of 1 or 2. So the 'Regional Independents' were the most appealing source of the numbers for a 'workable majority' but they had to get something in return. FFG apparently set their face against 'constituency deals' for individual TDs so the most obvious reciprocal offer for the RIs was junior ministerial positions. FG in particular don' seem to have a lot of TDs crying out for promotion so they probably felt that giving away a clutch of junior ministries was not a particularly onerous price to pay for prospective government stability. Don't see why there should be huge internal acrimony for this government: most of the RIs are experienced operators who would not be expected to go round rocking the boat without serious provocation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The far right targeted SF's core vote (see the core messaging and abuse of SF candidates across media and social media)and failed to make any inroads.

    Think what you like jh79 and try open rabbit holes and deflect to those living rent free in your head, I could nearly write your replies at this stage.
    My core point remains - the FF FG grip on power will remain but it is slowly weakening even if people remain in denial. Will the bolt hole of depending on parish pump politicians bolster their chances or is it a last bolthole? That is the question.



  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Before they turned on SF they were abusing every other party on SF behalf.

    SF problems with the right were self inflicted. They were happy to have the bump in the opinion polls and refused to deal with the issue amongst their support. Should of dealt with it when Holohan made his sexist , homophobic and racist comments in 2020.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Like forcing him out of the party and making it clear his comment were not going to be tolerated?

    That support went elsewhere/turned against them because it was made clear that SF would not be amplifying it.
    IMO a lot of it was not truly 'far-right' and was led up a path by what is a noisy rabble (the actual far-right) which is being found out. Those who turned to the far-right because they were angry/frightened and kept in the dark by government policy can be won back. Remains to be seen if SF can do that.
    Meanwhile you will studiously ignore the big questions for FF FG and whether their current (IMO) desperate dalliances with a rattlebag of parish pump politicians will grow their support or will their share continue to decline towards a tipping point.



  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Chasing that vote initially and the strategic ambiguity on what SF would do with immigration caught them out in the end. The right were calling them traitors for a reason. They invited them in and then wanted rid when it was no advantage to them.

    I reckon FF/FG will be ok. Wouldn't bother me if they merged anyway.

    It's all relative anyways. People are not happy for Lowry to be involved but the alternative was far worse with the criminal elements within SF.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,966 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    This narrative that Sinn Fein saw off the far right as some kind of virtuous defenders of enlightened values is just compete and utter bullsh!t, you are right to call it out. If Sinn Fein lost votes to the far-right, it can only be because SF were attractive to those with a far right viewpoint. Usually parties lose votes to those closest to them in outlook as the electorate shifts position. In this case, Sinn Fein lost votes to the far right because while far right enough to attract those votes in the first place, they were not far right enough to retain those votes.

    Sinn Fein lost 20% of their vote from 2020 to 2024, making them at least the second-worst if not the worst performing main opposition party in the history of the state. They lost votes to all parties.

    They have a lot of issues and the party is at a major crossroads. Who knows where it will turn?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,873 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Not facetious. Many countries have viable minority governments, notably the Nordics. Our last minority government proved quite durable until Simon Harris became untenable as Health Minister (just a reminder).

    Obviously, not as stable as a majority government but no less stable than a fractious coalition. And a government which is one which is just one vote short is the strongEst minority government, especially where that extra vote could come from any of our plethora of opposition parties and Independents. Even if they are corralled by M. Lowry!

    Instead we will have a coalition with a bunch of Independents (the hint is in the name!). It will probably endure for a full term but will it be effective and coherent? What happens when the Corporation Tax disappears and all those lovely promises must be abandoned?

    Like the “rotating Taoiseach” BS, we seem to believe there is a special virtue in coalitions. I prefer a democracy where people get the government they voted for, or at least something as close as possible to it, not some mish-mash of ideas and power-plays.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,564 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    he has his whole family as politicians to look after local stuff



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Lowry wasn't involved when people went to the polls.
    Why am I not surprised you would be trumpeting the far right - anything can be supported as long as it does down the shinners.
    The far -right will and have turned on anyone who opposes their fascist views. They were not able to eat into SF's core vote, despite some on here relishing that, even if it meant the far right gaining a foothold. Be careful what you wish for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,966 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Coalitions are the norm in most democracies, outside of the US and the UK, of course China and Russia are singular examples also of single-party government. What is wrong with a coalition?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,925 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    a fractious coalition…will it be effective and coherent?

    Again I'm really not seeing how the proposed arrangement should be any weaker on this one than the sort of ad hoc one you advocate. As I've said the leading lights of the Regional Independents have been around the block a few times and know what it takes to steer a government through a full term. I would take this as a clear signal that the RIs intend to stick with with this coalition through thick & thin



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,230 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    That Irish government you mentioned was a coalition except for the fact Fianna Fail were afraid to call it one.

    If the party in minority power can only do stuff after consulting the opposition then there really isn't much difference.



  • Posts: 8,350 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How is calling SF out for courting the far right "trumpeting" them?

    Francie, nobody is buying it. The left have called SF out for their shift too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,966 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    In fact that government he mentioned was an effective coalition of FF, FG and regional independents, now why would that be a good idea then but a bad idea now?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,032 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You keep offering the far-right vainglorious talking points.

    They(SF) repudiated far-right notions, despite commentators like yourself relishing SF accomodating them and they got their candidates elected while the far-right didn’t.
    You are trumpeting a far-right narrative- own it.



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