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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,122 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,212 ✭✭✭yagan


    Many expressed their doubts about Russia's technologically freshness when they starting sending up soviet era stock like the Bear for long range patrols in 2007.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,962 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    A nuke that might work is deterrent ,

    A nuke that doesn't work ,or a launch command that's disobeyed is pretty severe, and likely to invite a coup,

    Firing a nuke into Ukraine either tactical or strategic would likely be the end of the Russian army in Ukraine,(almost all of it ) and any russian assets outside of Russia .. because NATO would act .. admittedly - Russia would probably have time to pull it's troops out of Ukraine ..

    In hindsight if the Russians had fired a tactical nuke into a small contested city in Donbass early on , then the war would likely be long over , many more lives and cities would have saved ,

    But hind-sight is like that ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,150 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    To preempt the usual "concern"..

    The counter-offensive so far seems like a smart move considering how hard the Russians have been pushed. Maybe it will gain some ground, maybe it won't.

    No they didn't "announce it", the Russians reported it first.

    The Ukrainian military knows more about their tactical situation than armchair second-guessers. Again, we'll see if any progress can be made.

    The timing is likely important.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 683 ✭✭✭Bitcoin


    Upto a 8km advance by the Ukrainian forces in just one day. Total collapse of the orcs in the area.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,131 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,334 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Let's go easy on the "total collapse" side of things for a while.

    One Ukrainian assault group made good progress along one vector of attack, almost certainly chosen because they new the Russian defences were particularly weak at that point. There might be other success stories that we can - and will - celebrate, but we're a long way from "total collapse" at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,131 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Untitled Image

    Ukraine looks like getting 3 Mirage 2000 5Fs later this month.

    Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov said that Paris intends to equip the aircraft in such a way as to ensure Ukrainian air superiority over Russian aviation.

    However, although initially the role of the Mirage 2000-5 is that of an air fighter jet, the Ukrainians want to be able to use it to hit ground targets, notes the French website of RTL. France has optimized the Mirage 2000-5F so that it can carry SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

    It seems that the French authorities will transfer up to 20 Mirage 2000−5F fighter jets to Ukraine, claims Avions Legendaires.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,122 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    I'm glad someone picked up on this because I noticed comments like this getting upvoted on Russian telegrams. How do they not see the irony. They also act like NATO is running out of armour to lose in Ukraine. Have they not checked their own Soviet storage bases?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 880 ✭✭✭junkyarddog




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,840 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    That's odd. Have the Ukrainians targeted electricity infrastructure previously? I don't recall them going for largely civilian impacting targets?

    Save boards.ie by subscribing: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭septictank


    Russian Orthodox celebrate Christmas over the 6th and 7th of January, these strikes are a Ukrainian present to them.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,127 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    In fairness, have you seen what the US Air Force is using?

    The things are 70 years old, and are expected to hang around most of another 30.

    image.png

    The Bear was a fantastic design, the B-52's counterpart.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,212 ✭✭✭yagan


    I had thought of the b62 but it was never mothballed but constantly updated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭purplepanda




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,876 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    The US Military keeps their machinery in much better repair than the RuZZians. There aren't as many* incidents of money spent but no parts bought or applied.

    B52 is a very successful design.

    *: personally never heard of any, but the US military does waste a lot of money. William Proxmire wasn't wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    not sure how conversation ended up in B52 when it started on nuclear weapons

    US spend on maintenance and upgrades in 2023 alone is $51.5bn only for their nuclear arsenal

    Russia spent $109.45bn in 2023 up from their pre war budget of 50bn on their whole military in an active war they started

    I suspect nuclear weapons require quite a bit more upkeep than b52 planes especially since the radioactive parts literally decay and irradiate the electronics

    There is literally a video linked on previous page with Russians driving motorcycles with bathtubs attached into combat



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,919 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I think it was a tanget related to Russian maintainece of Soviet hardware, which led to the mention that Russia still use the Bear, with the counter-agrument that the US use the B52 and that both are examples of durable Cold War hardware still in use.

    It's a fair point, but as you have also pointed out now, compared to what the US put into their maintainence the Russias invest relative pittence and on the whole do not appear to be as dilligent as the professionals you'll often find in the US Military. At least they appear to be nowhere near as well funded or commanded.

    This is a major factor to my suspicion that their nuclear arsenal has long since turned into a pile of radioactive scrap metal.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,920 ✭✭✭green daries


    I would say russia has working /fixable rockets and some tactical size nukes. Putin put a lot into that side of the army a few years back if I recall correctly.

    I don't think they have a huge amount of the war heads (or whatever there described as) combat ready. B



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭vswr


    Article is a bit sensationalist…. there had been jamming in the Med for well over 10 years now, and sporadic to continuous in the Baltic the last 5….

    The problem with the Ryanair flight is that it was flying RNAV (GPS navigation). There has been a program in place to remove "legacy" (I use that term lightly, as with all the issues of GPS in regions of war, they are showing their worth again) navigational aids (VOR, DME, NDB) through Europe… reasons were plenty, with GPS you have better position details, you can use airspace more freely compared to being constrained to traditional air routes which hop to hop radio beacons, or intersection of radio beacons…. allowing for more traffic to be in the air. Navaids are expensive to run too

    With more traffic in the air, you need anti collisions systems like TCAS (ACAS?) which rely on Mode-S, which relies on GPS…

    Common denominator, GPS, mess with it, it reduces airspace capacity, and if some airports can only facilitate RNAV arrivals, it affects that too…

    What we're seeing around Ukraine, is not necessarily flights being targeted, moreso, GPS is affected, which as above reduces airspace capacity, or closes RNAV airports, resulting in cancellations or diversions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭vswr


    If you have a secure rear…. field telephones are a thing (a WW1 thing)…. just drag some copper or fibre behind you… can blast all the EW you want then (although that in itself makes you a target)

    edit: or, if the terrain topography is true…. Ukraine are working with height advantage…. meaning higher frequency jamming from the Russian may simply just not "see" any Ukraine kit (due to the mechanics of RF propagation at higher frequencies)…. also easier for Ukraine to use their kit



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭vswr


    Russian's double down on stupidity… so yes, Chinese intervention was required.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,919 ✭✭✭Rawr


    That's assuming the whole "China told him not to" thing is more than just a cover for their lack of ability to throw this kind of weapon.

    By saying that China are "holding them back" "tempering Russia's anger" or "strictly telling them No!" it's kind of a percieved double-whammy for Centrist propagandists for making it look like the Russians are holding back their worst attack (they are not, their current effort is likely the best they can manage), and that the Chinese are so powerful that they can manage to control Putin. (It's true that they likely can lean on Putin a lot more now, but their power is relative to Russia, and to their tinpot collection of BRICs-i-verse friends)

    Again this is based on my theory that Russia don't have functioning nukes. It could very well be that China are not aware of that themselves…but I suspect they have an idea of what Moscow can manage, especially since they are illegally supplying the lions-share of their current tech needs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭vswr


    I wouldn't go as far as assuming Russia doesn't have functioning nukes…

    The submarine and nuclear forces have always been kept to a higher standard than the rest of the forces.

    Also, while there has been some spectacular failings of many of Russia's "new" weapon systems. There has been numerous successful tests of existing nuke delivery systems as recent as within the last 6 months in the Pacific Ocean. Both ship borne and sub launched ballistic systems.

    To write off an arsenal of 5,000+ warheads as completely defunct is just silly.

    If it does ever get to the red button time, I doubt Russia would be the ones who do it anyway, it would be by proxy of "someone who went rogue".

    China are stepping in as they don't expect to be ready to make an attempt on Taiwan until circa 2027. Nukes going off before that, along with the excuse for a heavy handed western response to all threats would be a disaster to their plans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 895 ✭✭✭Avatar in the Post


    Are you familiar with "Trigger's Brush"? Not a military term :-D

    I wonder if there's much left from the original 'off the peg' in her?

    EDIT - beaten to it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,212 ✭✭✭yagan


    What happens Putin really isn't a priority for China, whose main national project is international trade.

    The US chip tariffs are already having an adverse effect on Taiwan's main exporter TSCM as China's chip making sector has gotten a boost that reduces demand from Taiwan.

    Geopolitically the far east of Russia is already a defacto extension of the north Chinese economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    TSMC is up 115% last year (12% last month) and about to open the latest and most advanced factory … in US

    The chipmakers are booming with record sales “without” China being at the party

    One theory I read is that China will pressure Russia in 2025 to end war in Ukraine in exchange for Trump lessening tarrifs, you are not wrong about Russia being Chinese puppets now



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    You don’t know that

    Russia spent (and that’s with figures they boasted about) less than UK or France on what is meant to be a 10-20x larger arsenal, the numbers simply don’t add up

    Best case scenario for Russians is an arsenal about size of UK, which would still be **** news for anyone on receiving end BUT a shadow of Soviet days or the 90s for that matter

    Take Oreshnik for example which is worse tech than what they had before for what is meant to be a new missile but is a rebrand of other old intermediate range missiles, it’s liquid fueled for gods sake not even solid

    This is a country which invented Potemkin villages and is almost four years into three day war that the glorius second best military in world was meant to have been a quick ride into kiev and onto Berlin on an armata tank shielded by next gen fighter jets and protected by best air defences in world

    Instead we got turret tossing completions, meat waves on foot and scooters with a casualty for every 3x3m plot of mud, Cessna drones hitting every one of their refineries and Kremlin itself attacked by drones, of and let’s not forget the Wagner incident which they airbrushed from history

    No one believes any Russian claims because they have exposed themselves for the shithole corrupt criminal run regime they are



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