1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

Snow doesn't normally bother me but picked up a new car an it doesn't have all season tyres

. Might have to work from home 🤔

does anyone remember 10cm of snow being forecast in I think January 2010 I could be wrong on that date but it was around then, and it never came to pass. The radar showed the precipitation but it didn’t hit the ground?

I wonder will east Galway still do ok we’re all excited.

I have friends coming over on Saturday afternoon and won't be leaving until around 10pm. I am in Naas.

I have to wait for met eireann to give more detailed warnings before I can recommend cancelling.

Then getting to work will be interesting on Monday.

BBC weather graphic - line from roughly Clare/Galway border up to lough neagh. Everywhere south of that line 20 to 40cm of snow. It’s increasing likely I’ll sadly miss out by the looks of it but hoping for a good event for everyone south of here.

is this a downgrade?

When prolonged cold spell beforehand might coastal effect not be as pronounced ?

I remember massive snowdrifts late Dec'81 / Jan'82 all over Cork and Tipperary ,for a week to 10 days , and again of shorter duration but just as heavy in Jan '84 . Latter blizzard( it was ! ) had us snowed in in Mitchelstiown . Nothing for it but a lockdown in a pub until we could drive back to Cork .

Be very surprised if that happens. Expect any snow to be further north of Clare and Tipp. Anyway we'll see what evening weather models bring.

I think no matter what journey the low takes the commute to work/school will be treacherous next week. Whatever be it rain sleet snow will freeze hard. Could double the length of time to travel on roads

No amount of evaporative cooling can negate 850hPas of +4c. Maybe 0c or -1c at most. This reading is for North Tipperary (Nenagh to be exact)

Just came across a very good post from John Holmes on Netweather. Very interesting.

Thursday 2 January 2025(1435)

Once more to look at the latest issue of the 500mb anomalies.

On the 6-10 most contours over the UK belong to the very fast flowing air running round the bottom of the main trough centred about over Newfoundland. Not warm by any means but with no input from Arctic regions. It is not that different with the 8-14 output in origin. Some warming compared to the 6-10 which is ‘perhaps’ a slight sign of changes down the next few days. Time will tell.

Looking at the UK Met raw output for the 3 days 6-8 January. You may remember that I noted that on all 3 days the 500 flow came from a northerly point on each chart. The latest 3 shows the first two doing similar but by day 3 (8 January) it originates from the Atlantic. Even the first two days enter the chart from a less northerly point than previously. Overall  the 500 pattern shows a tendency to back towards a more westerly flow. To me it does suggest that the first real signs of a lessening of the upper cold is tentatively starting? The surface flow does, just, keep the two troughs separate.

Not what most folk will want to read but I think there is a slight movement with both sets of charts to something a bit less cold in the 3-6 day period. What I’m not sure of is how much longer beyond that date. The anomaly charts in the 8-14 period do not suggest a rampant Atlantic but neither suggest any really deep cold from any direction. So it is sitting on the fence time for me as to what happens after this weekend.

I don’t normally make comment about the surface in here but I believe that the main surface low is going to be the major player with milder air extending well north. By Sunday we will all know if that is right or wrong.

Makes a very valid point but still not over yet. Think a more southerly approach on the low would do no harm.

I remember -14 degrees that January . Queuing for water from water trucks in the shutoff afterwards because so many burst main pipes being fixed . Not nice .But hopefully Irish Water have all that under control by now ?😁

ICON is a little further north again resulting in a largely cold rain/sleet event on Saturday but increasingly turning to snow on high ground (mostly) in the middle third of Ireland from early Sunday morning. Where there was once a much colder pool of air over Ireland a few days ago has become watered down into marginal territory, thereby reducing the snow risk for many. The precip clears Ireland on Sunday night.

Arpege keeps everything much further South than Icon. Heavy snow, just for Cork