Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Could we be nearing the endgame?

I've been thinking about were both sides are with their positions and with the realpolitik of how things are likely to play out in the near term.

The Ukrainians have seemed to come to terms that they will not be driving the Russians out militarily, they will not be joining NATO any time soon, and any bilateral security guarantees that they were looking for seem rather anaemic without US involvement, and the other countries that were given support being lukewarm about getting directly involved. It's already being signalled that they will live with the Russian occupation without recognising any legitimacy to their territorial claims and work through peaceful means towards a full eventual reunification.

The Russians core interests are with the military alignment of Ukraine and with their territorial claims. I've already mentioned the unlikelihood of Ukraine joining NATO and the lukewarm military commitment from other European countries, so things aren't a million miles away from consensus on that front. What remains is Russia's territorial claims. They've spoken about the entirety of the four oblasts and Crimea. I don't think they have the support back home or will to go any further than the rest of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Could the Ukrainians concede to Russian occupying the remaining parts of the Donbass without a fight? Probably not.

What we do know is that the new Trump administration are coming in and America wants an off ramp. And some might speculate that they want to bring Russia in from the cold as they square off against China. Would America concede Donbass? Who knows? But It's pretty much on the cards that US military support to Ukraine is going to be cut either way. And that the Ukrainians will take very seriously what the US considers a reasonable deal.

When the only constant is that Putin never keeps his or Russias word how do you ever negotiate anything?

Why do you only do the assessment of Ukraine?

Can you also do one for Russia?

….

don’t worry the Vatniks will be along shortly to tell us that this is all part of Putlers plan and that Russia are holding back with all their good weaponry…. And if they so wanted could overrun Ukraine in a matter of (3) days… and to let Ukraine have their fun with their toy boats…..

FCUK RUSSIA

Many European countries can co-operate with their neighbours in a positive way. With Russia the only operation is a special military one, and there's no co-operation because no-one trusts them.

Why can't Russia ever admit that they were struck by a Ukrainian drone or missile. Ukraine admit it plenty. Every single time a target is hit whether it a building, ammo depot or oil depot it's always from debris after they shot down a Ukrainian drone or missile. They must think people are stupid. On Russian telegrams none of the Russians are actually believing this.

I'm struggling to post the link but a odd'ish story from Violetta Baran from the US about a top-level Russian diplomatic flight over Christmas to the US. Russian embassy claims rotation of diplomatics, Violetta says increasing talk of hush hush behind the since talks between Biden administration and Russia about ending the war against Ukraine.

Here's a quote from the story.

The top leadership of Russia uses this plane for official flights.

 Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have previously flown on it. Sergey Naryshkin, the head of SVR, also used the Ilyushin Il-96-300. Vladimir Putin also flies a plane of the same type of aircraft.

This aircraft is from the Russian Special Flight Squadron.

What ruble is doing?

Also more careless smoking incidents reported in putin's terrorist state:

https://kyivindependent.com/saboteurs-destroy-two-trains-near-moscow-destined-for-occupied-ukraine-group-claims/

I think it's a bit naive to think that an agreement or settlement could end the war. Dissident Ukrainians will be blowing up Russians for the next 100+ years. Putin has effectively created a permanent thorn in Russians side for what might as well be the rest of time.

I agree that NATO membership for Ukraine may be a difficult goal to achieve and it is my opinion that there still is too much of a distance between the position of Ukraine and that of putin for a simple diplomatic agreement to be reached in the short term.

What Ukraine has on its side now is much more than a simple partisan movement but a powerful experienced military of over a million active personnel, its own arms industry and a number of economically powerful countries that have committed to continued support as they face an illegal invasion by a terrorist state.

The USSR could not stay in Afghanistan when Afghanistan had much less international support than Ukraine does. I can't see how putin can succeed in getting anything positive from his terrorist activities as even if some of Ukraine's allies supply less in future the Ukrainians simply will rely more on what they can produce themselves.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-claims-use-of-peklo-drones-against-them/

It was a known Russian military HQ, and would have been under surveillance I'd imagine. When the dead officers and their function become known, it will become clearer if it was a targetted attack.