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Forming the next Irish Government - policies and personalities

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭elperello




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,723 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Split Justice and Transport which are currently split. Uhuh

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,408 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    Considering that FFFG don't need many extra votes it's difficult to see what goodies that some of the independents can really push for though I suppose they can claim they have secured great deals but the results will become clear over the next couple of years .I am surprised that the two lads in Kerry rowed in as I expected their demands to be unrealistic to give them the off ramp .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,486 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It seems to be mostly sops to rural demands which tend to be cheap to fulfil (even if a waste of resources). The Healys will be cheap enough to keep in rather than out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,574 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    Verona Murphy keeps claiming she brought government investment into Rosslare port when its brexit that did that https://www.eolasmagazine.ie/the-new-ceann-comhairles-political-journey/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    She saw road tax reduced etc based on that interview

    Why do you think Brexit was the only reason? or just dont want to give the lady any credit?

    Funny how upset people get when someone gets a bit of good news in life. Begrudgery in Ireland is rife



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,723 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    It's not begrudgery to point out that she's talking pony.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,191 ✭✭✭✭elperello


    In fairness she has been a vocal and consistent advocate for Rosslare Port since she entered politics.

    I suggest her political support for the cause at least reaches the bar for claiming some credit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Now FF and FG can get down to the real business of sharing out the spoils.

    The politicians are sold on the nonsense of "rotating Taoiseach" - the only debate is about who goes first and for how long. This makes a mockery of the election and it sets a precedent which will endure for successive elections or until a rotation collapses a government i.e. whenever a rotation coincides with a major crisis. Until then, it will diminish the Office of the Taoiseach - "Welcome to Ireland, President Trump. I'm the top dog here for the time being but your next bowl of shamrock will come from my rival whom I will support loyally."

    As usual, gender and geography will be decisive in Ministerial allocation, not merit and certainly not policy or performance so the sitting FF/FG Ministers are safe. That leaves room for five new Cabinet Ministers i.e. to replace the three Greens, plus Heather and Stephen Donnelly. The Regional Independents (Michael Lowry) are pushing for a full cabinet minister, a super-junior minister and two junior ministers. It's a high price to pay when FF/FG are just one vote short of a majority but Independents with Ministerial jobs will never bring down the government.

    Mary Butler and Dara Calleary are tipped for FF Cabinet posts but nothing is nailed down. There would be a lot a disappointment among long-serving and capable FF Junior Ministers e.g. Thomas Byrne, James Browne, James Lawless and Niall Collins (not not Niall O’Connor) and Jim O’Callaghan Senior Council (who disdains anything Junior).

    Jennifer C MCN. and Martin Hayden are tipped for FG where there are fewer credible rivals. Jennifer looks a certainty even now.

    Michael Lowry will be king-maker among the Independents. He crowned Verona, Queen of the Dáil but now he has to keep his troops happy and the Healy-Raes at bay.

    Taoiseach says this will get done by 22 January i.e. he has already agreed the divvy-up with MM. Now they can enjoy Christmas. They will come up with a Programme in January and then sort out their own troops.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2024/fionnan-sheahan-norma-foley-wants-to-be-the-new-heather-humphreys-and-mary-butler-is-guaranteed-cabinet/a355278699.html

    Post edited by Caquas on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,063 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Where have we come to when a party 10 seats shy 'concedes' that it will go second. Bizarre tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I wonder has Martin thought this through. If he still has aspirations to lead FF into the next election, I think he would be in a stronger position if he took his turn second, like a football team playing the second leg of a tie at home. As things stand he will be under strong pressure to clarify his intentions round the time of the handover if he has not already done so, and FF may not be polling strongly at that point…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I doubt he's going to run for dail again. He'll be Taoiseach for 2.5-3 years, then hand over to Simon Harris and, at the same time, have a leadership election for FF. Ivan Yates suggested that MM's son will take over his seat then in next election (well he'll run for it, no guarantees, etc).

    For a man who at one point looked to be first FF leader to not be Taoiseach, hell probably end up leap frogging John Bruton, Brian Cowen, Albert Reynolds, Liam Cosgrave, Leo Varadkar and Garett Fitzgerald for how long he's served as Taoiseach (he's currently 2nd shortest office holder, with only Harris behind him)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    That's how I think things are most likely to pan out too, but if Martin even wanted to leave his options open I think taking second go would be a better call…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,063 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Martin could see out a few FG leaders. Head and shoulders above Varadkar and Harris. Has surprised me tbh, kicked into statesman mode as soon as he took office and it’s worked for him



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Shane Ross having another conniption about Verona in the Sindo today. But his real target is Michael Lowry.

    Shane was the leader of the short-lived Independent Alliance from which Lowry, the great survivor, kept his distance. He has a point about Lowry's exorbitant power - and the weakness of FF/FG - but Shane Ross is the last person who can complain on that score.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,333 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    And so the charade continues......

    These two parties are downright the same. Making up fake conflicts throughout the election campaign.

    The regional independents and those in their constituencies will be the biggest winners out of all of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭pureza


    They’re like a modern day Soc Dems and labour…

    Oh wait 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭Caquas


    The fundamental problem for our democracy is not that the two largest parties are the same, although that is a major headache for the parties as they try to define their USP during electoral campaigns. The problem for the Irish people is that neither of our two largest parties stand for anything in particular.

    Both parties have long since abandoned their founding principles - Irish unity, the Irish language, free enterprise, self-sufficiency, small farms, Christianity - or diluted them beyond recognition. Now they have "core values" i.e. whatever the focus groups tell them. This is not unusual as parties adapt to social change - the Tories in the UK, the Republicans in the US and the Danish Social Democrats come to mind. Ireland is unusual because the Civil War divisions have not been replaced by any clear alternatives so we have both parties fighting for the mucky swamp euphemistically known as the "centre ground". Sometimes they are so deluded as to call it the "moral high ground"😥

    Just over 40% of people voted for these "divil ya know" parties and almost 20% voted for someone who will extract local advantage from our national parliament. That is the Dáil majority on which our government will be based for the next five years.

    It will all become clear on 22 January.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I'm not sure why FFG aren't looking to deal with the 6 or 7 most parish-pump-oriented independents on a one-to-one basis, rather than trying to reach an agreement with this problematic Regional Group.

    And looks like they're now heeding my sage advice:

    Although there are 11 TDs, including Aontú, in the Regional Independent Group, only a small number are ultimately expected to fully sign up to an agreement with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael…

    Michael and Danny Healy-Rae are also close to agreeing a constituency deal with the incoming government.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,976 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Let me get this clear, according to you, 60% or so of people voted for what is likely to be the next government, and this is somehow a problem for democracy?

    You decry a lack of policy, but surely their policy can be summed up as steady as you go and we will tackle bit by bit the problems without upsetting the apple cart. That is what people have voted for, and whether we like it or not, we have to respect the people's decision.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,408 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Most of those 60% votes were not first preference votes, but transfers - maybe well down the ballot. That is the system we have. Candidates can be elected on not many first preferences - just have to keep ahead of those below them.

    Just look at Labour in the UK - they were voted to a huge majority on 33.7% of the first (and only) preference. Labour won 411 seats - a majority of 96.

    Is that what you want?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,032 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    What's the problem with parties not standing for anything/having a strong ideological bent/differences? The fact is most people don't hold strong ideological views. The Irish voting system just reflects that as it gives voters choice. It's not like the UK or the USA where due to FPTP political parties can be captured by people with minority views but very ideologically motivated ie Corbyn, Trump, Thatcher, Brexiters etc etc. In the UK case multiple governments have been elected with a minority of votes but due to FPTP large parliament majorities. Grand if the government of the day is in line with your views but that won't always be the case.

    Thatcher is a prime example. Arguably a great prime minister for London and the South of England. For the rest of the UK the less said the better if we are being kind. That's an example of what you are asking for. Under the Irish system it's far far harder for such a divisive politician to get into power.

    Very few TDs got voted in on only first preference votes. Strong ideological views won't get you the 2nd,3rd, 4th, 5th etc preferences that get a TD elected. At some level you have to reach beyond your base to get elected which entails moderating your policies. Coalitions involve even more compromise further blunting any large ideological differences versus opposition parties/the general public.

    As other posters have said the current government will have politicians who were supported by 60% of voters. It's democracy in action.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭Caquas


    I thought I was being clear but obviously not clear enough for you or Rosahane.

    I said just over 40% of people voted for FF/FG. Another ~20% voted for Independents with the aim of extracting local benefits from the national government, regardless of its compostion. Therein lies one problem for our democracy.

    The main problem I highlighted was that neither of the two largest parties stand for anything in particular. Many voters who support FF/FG do want a "steady as she goes" approach but neither of those parties offer that - they are full of ideas for change including some radical notions like replacing families with "durable relationships" as the foundation of our society. They increased public expenditure at an unprecedented rate but have little to show for it. Their ideas and their actions do not add up to a clear vision of society.

    FF / FG offered us a choice between two election programmes which were just mish-mashes of ”goodies” and that will now be seamlessly welded into a "Programme for Government" because neither party is really wedded to anything. But for the first time they won’t have a smaller party - Labour, the Greens, the PDs - to provide ideological ballast and to take the blame.

    Voters have every right to feel that they were sold a pig in a poke.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭pureza


    what are the ‘goodies’ you speak of and why are they benefit less if they are ‘goodies’

    What has the public expenditure increase been spent on and could you give us examples of how much shouldn’t have been spent or where? Roads rail pay increases etc etc

    What basis do you have for criticism of a situation where everyone voting for FF and FG knew what they were voting for?

    Is it that it doesn’t tie in with what you wanted? C’est la vie,C’est la Democracy,N’est pas ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,976 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    One minute you are saying that they don't stand for anything in particular, but the next minute you say they are full of ideas for change!!!

    Your analysis is confusing and appears to be driven more by a personal distaste for our society than by anything else.

    This country is one of the best places to live on the planet, that people vote for that to continue is not surprising, and that they vote for the parties who have made it one of the best places to live on the planet is not surprising either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Welcome home - sorry you missed the election campaign - here's a summary of some goodies.

    I would mention two which are likely to prove bottomless pits of Exchequer spending if they make it into the Programme for Government - free childcare for all (watch that €200 contribution dwindle with each passing Budget) and Carers' Allowance regardless of income.

    What has public expenditure been spent on? Feast your eyes!

    https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/2025/

    What would I not spend it on?

    4345652_16_articlelarge_LeinsterHouseBikeShed.jpg

    This is emblematic of the wider problem - gross overspend even when the project is worthwhile e.g. the National Children's Hospital. And dismal failure to implement plans (Metro North).

    I am not complaining that people voted for FF / FG. (No shortage of others here to beat that drum.) I am complaining that FF and FG have no vision or political philosophy. They simply watch the way the wind blows so people can't know what they voted for. They get a rudderless ship which is directed by other interests (the Greens, the Healy-Raes, the Regional Independents). That's how FF and FG gave us two of the most useless and dangerous referendums.

    In truth, this is a broader problem of liberal democracies and is leading to paralysis in Europe but here we have a particular case because of the Civil War.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭Caquas


    You don't see a difference between a party which stands for something in particular and a party which has "a mish-mash of proposals for change"?

    Where have I ever expressed a distaste for Irish society? Your prejudices are showing.

    You credit FF and FG with making Ireland one of the best places to live? I credit the Irish people in general with making our society what it is. I worry that the political parties will do what they have done repeatedly - blow up the economy. (Yes, FF was principally to blame in 2008 and in 1979 but FG was trying to outbid them in 2007 and made a hames of the economy in the 1980s.). What will happen when the Corporate Tax windfall disappears as quickly as it arrived?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭pureza


    Rubbish

    The government didn’t spend that money on a bike shed

    Neither did they promise to spend it

    That was civil servants as you know and bad cross party oireachtas committee management

    Next please

    The rest is more rubbish used usually by the not very learned to conflate manifesto aspirations with programmes for government

    If you’ve fallen for or are peddling that type of codswallop,I’m not debating with you,I’ll just point to where you’ve been misled

    As for comparing Ireland to a broader problem in Europe? Ireland with probably one of the best performing lifestyle mixes in the world,you really are showing an ignorance of many facts in order to highlight whatever prejudice you have going here

    Go get a seamstress to fix the holes in your argument

    Maybe get one in Europe where they’re paid less



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,869 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Good thing happens: It was the Irish people not the politicians

    Bad thing happens: It was entirely the fault or the politicians, whether in power or not and nothing to do with the Irish people.

    Top level political analysis.

    I frequently don't like how people vote, but "people didn't vote the way i wanted" is not a problem for democracy.



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