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2025 Property Predicitions

  • 12-12-2024 01:53PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,309 ✭✭✭✭


    Last year's prediction thread.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058328750/house-price-predictions-for-2024#latest

    How does one add a poll?

    Post edited by markodaly on
    Tagged:


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,154 ✭✭✭spaceHopper


    Where it says new discussion there is dropdown arrow



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,309 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Cant seem to add one now.

    Perhaps a mod can?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,855 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    I can’t see any major change- slight rises here and there I would think but mainly Bob along at the already high levels they’re at due to demand for housing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,436 ✭✭✭halkar


    Rents are high, interest rates going down and lack of supply. I predict 5-10 % increase.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 263 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    More of the same through next year unless the long-predicted global economic shock occurs (eg China putting the knife into Taiwan) as the country is still minted and the government will be the same so spending on propping up the property market will remain elevated. House prices still greatly overvalued (not 10% like the ESRI says, more like 30%) but the money is there from the government to fuel demand at these prices. I think possibly it could be a bumper year without an economic shock; growth 10% in the economy and house prices up again 7-10%.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,856 ✭✭✭ballyharpat


    Property prices up by 5-10%, labour is going up, materials are staying the same. A shortage of tradesmen, perhaps some eastern European tradesmen may go to Ukraine to help rebuild, there may be some properties becoming available, but still a shortage of builders.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I'd pencil in another 10% rise by EOY 2025. Nothing has changed from last year, so putting aside the unforeseeable and ever elusive "black swan" event, things will keep on going are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭drogon.


    All depends on what the next government does to fix the current issue, which will inevitably cause prices to go up rather than down. Especially if the first home scheme is introduced for second hand homes.. Interest rates falling will have impact too, 4X salary was introduced when rates were going up, now that rates are supposed to be coming down, we may see its impacts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭BENDYBINN


    paying a mortgage is cheaper than renting……demand way greater than supply…..only way is up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,413 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Correction overdue, sale prices to drop by about 20%



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 759 ✭✭✭Infoseeker1975


    I would not be buying a house in 2025, need to see the impact that Trump has in relation to corporation tax here, not referring to the established companies with employees, more the instances of revenue being booked here with no or near to no employees.

    Demand being greater than supply is one thing but personally think uncertainty needs to be factored in; huge wealth in Ireland these days though not necessarily spread across those trying to get their first property.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭drogon.


    more the instances of revenue being booked here with no or near to no employees

    Correct me if I am wrong, but when this happens, it is basically the EU entity of the company funnelling money through Irish subsidiary and nothing that Mr Trump can do here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 759 ✭✭✭Infoseeker1975


    My example was probably a poor one in terms of risk, for me a far more realistic threat would be in relation to IP. Our tax laws have deliberately allowed for very favourable treatment of IP for a long time, this has resulted in substantial US revenues being moved to us and more CT for us.

    Think I read somewhere that CT in 2014 was 5bn and it is heading towards 25bn this year excluding the Apple monies. If that figure was greatly reduced, then it would have a serious impact.

    Trump can change this and bring back IP & this would have a major impact on our CT figure, think it could be halved in number.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,423 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    In short term, still very strong increases coming in 2025. Demand high, supply low, interest rates dropping back, not that they did much to slow down prices anyway.

    In my area, a 3 bed costs about 3000 to rent. A 4 bed 3600. There's not many, but that's what they'll achieve.

    Theoretically, a young couple would buy and pay a mortgage of 3000 a month given the alternative of renting

    3000 a month over 30 to 35 years makes one hell of a high purchase price, higher than they are now for sure.

    So I'm going to vote for 10% rise in 2025 again, supply is not going to be sorted any time soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,149 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    More of the same…or worse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 151 ✭✭GalwayBmw


    you have less than 20yrs to prove your theory with all my respect. This factors in for many of us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 151 ✭✭GalwayBmw


    the higher the demand is the more chances for the prices to go down. It's a leverage world we live in…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 759 ✭✭✭Infoseeker1975




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I expect prices rises of around ten percent , mass immigration, government not serious about increasing supply… Look at what they do, not what they say…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,344 ✭✭✭✭suvigirl


    They could, if the will was there, ban overseas investors from buying up homes.

    They won't of course



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,344 ✭✭✭✭suvigirl


    Do we have 'mass immigration ' in actual real terms, I don't think so



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,035 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Guessing you are south Dublin with those rental prices.

    We are looking at over 40k homes built this year. Where they are built is a major factor and I dont know how many of the 40k will be in South Dublin.

    I assume 20k at least in Dublin overall, but would be interesting to see the numbers by council division.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    What we have is a NET increase of about 100k a year. That's been the case for at least two years, and it will almost certainly be so for the coming year. For a country with a population of around 5 million, that is a 2% rise in population in just 12 months.

    To put this into more tangible terms, this is equivalent of adding the population of Limerick to the country every 12 months.

    Post edited by RichardAnd on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 285 ✭✭Hontou


    I remember guessing a 5% increase last year and then thinking, 'No, surely that is too much?' I'm going to stick with around a 5% increase again. Reports always emphasize the areas with the greatest property price inflation, but there are some areas in rural Ireland where properties are not selling. Trump imposing tariffs and the increase in minimum wage may have knock-on effects on some employment, which could prevent many from getting mortgages. But the pent-up demand and increasing population will probably still increase prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,423 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    No I'm in Lucan west Dublin, just checked my numbers again and they're correct, not a huge difference between where I am and some of the more expensive south Dublin areas, just shows the absolute lack of supply has pushed prices up to breaking point for rent.

    There's an example below of a 3 bed and a 4 bed. Yes, it's Dublin but not a traditionally expensive area of Dublin. On border outwith kildare really.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/house-tullyhall-crescent-lucan-co-dublin/5928033

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-the-paddocks-square-the-paddocks-road-adamstown-adamstown-co-dublin/5954106



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