Forming the next Irish Government - policies and personalities

No, although they give that impression.

Under Article 28.11.2,

The members of the Government in office at the date of a dissolution of Dáil Éireann shall continue to hold office until their successors shall have been appointed.

The issue may arise next Wednesday because Art. 28.10 states:

The Taoiseach shall resign from office upon his ceasing to retain the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann unless on his advice the President dissolves Dáil Éireann and on the reassembly of Dáil Éireann after the dissolution the Taoiseach secures the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann.

In effect, because Simon Harris will not have the support of a majority in the new Dáil to continue as Taoiseach, he must then go to the Áras and resign (but won't ask the President for a new election). Then Art. 28.11.1 kicks in:

If the Taoiseach at any time resigns from office the other members of the Government shall be deemed also to have resigned from office, but the Taoiseach and the other members of the Government shall continue to carry on their duties until their successors shall have been appointed.

This post-resignation Government is sometimes called a "caretaker government" but it is better described as an "acting Government" i.e. it has full powers but lacks a democratic mandate. That is why SH and MM are so relaxed about letting the coalition negotiations run into next year - they will still be in power.

FF/FG may be willing to sacrifice the CC role in order to get closer to a majority and they certainly don't want to get further from a majority by letting SO'F grab another term. But in that case, they should give the Chair to an Opposition TD who would otherwise reliably vote against the government e.g. someone from Labour or SDs (now that we are past the play-acting about either party going into coalition).

The votes of VM and other Independents can be had for a much lower price and without a humiliation on Day One for FF/FG. Of course, the Independents will want seat(s) at Cabinet whether or not VM gets to be CC.

Let's see if FF/FG can actually control their TDs in a secret ballot.I think some FG TDs would be happy to send a message to their party leadership by voting for VM who is closer to FG values than some in the party leadership. A lot of FG TDs are as disenchanted after the election with "new energy" Simon as their former colleagues were with Leo, who both lead the party to humiliating defeats but got away with it. How many jobs will Simon secure for FG when FF have 10 more TDs?

That’s the tradition. Here’s the practice. Muted 😂

There'll be plenty more outrage where that came from in the next Dáil but will the CC take the same robust approach to it? Aonghus O Snodaigh certainly wouldn't and he would give the lie to the notion of a "muted" CC.