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The End of Assad? Syrian Rebels enter the outskirts of Aleppo for the first time since 2016

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭jmreire


    The head of HTS has said that all public, administrative and embassy buildings are to be left untouched. Several reasons for this of course. They want a new administration up and running ASAP. So no looting or other forms of destruction. Then, especially with the Russian Embassy, they will want to get access to everything they can regarding Russian intelligence, security and any "other" info. For the other embassies, I'd say that their staff, or at least a skeleton / security crew would remain. I'd imagine that the rebels already have most of that covered, as part of the attack planning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,158 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Not sure where you're getting the idea that the Russians will be sticking around.

    They were only granted the use of military bases in Syria at the invitation of Assad. Assad is gone and the people the Russians are bombing are now widely accepted as being the people in charge. They certainly aren't going to be interested in doing a deal with the Russians.

    The best case scenario the Russians have is that they will be allowed to evacuate in good order.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,211 ✭✭✭yagan


    Ive seen a TV news report of thousands of displaced syrians crossing back over from Lebanon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Theres as many shades of Islam as the 40 shades of green (more, probably) but they all have one thing in common. They are all Muslims.The further away from extreme Islam, Taliban / Isis etc. you get the more relaxed it becomes. I've eaten and drank with more Muslims than I care to count. And they matched me drink for drink, which proves that it was not their first session either. So it is with other things as well as drink. Sex? No problem! Meet a lady, marry her, sleep with her, and the next morning divorce her. But the one thing thats unavoidable is that you are and will remain a Muslim, because tom leave Islam is definitely Haram, with a very heavy price to pay for breaking that law. So he will feel more at home in an Islamic Country, especially with his wife and children. Not because of the reasons that I've outlined above, just to point out that theres great flexibility within Islam. And when you consider the barrel of snakes that is Putins regime, he may well feel safer amongst his co-religionists.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,939 ✭✭✭donaghs


    Well that didn’t take long. Turkish backed rebels attacking Kurdish controlled areas.

    Mainstream news call the Kurds US-allied SDF.

    https://www.voanews.com/amp/as-assad-falls-fighting-intensifying-over-northern-syria-town-/7891689.html

    Turkish news calls them YPG/PKK terrorists

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/opposition-syrian-national-army-seizes-80-of-manbij-in-anti-terror-operation/3418099



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,939 ✭✭✭donaghs


    Apart from the humiliation to Russia, I don’t think this new situation really helps Ukraine.

    From strictly military, not diplomatic point of view, Russia has no skin in the Syria war now, so can redeploy any forces there to other fronts, like Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,563 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Syrian flag changed in the Syrian embassy in Moscow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭scottser


    Assad has 40m worth of property in Moscow - he'll be grand.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,563 ✭✭✭✭Say my name




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    They lost plenty of equipment there tho, some of it like the antiaircraft is rather pricy too



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭jmreire


    40 million worth of property in Moscow? Only 40 million worth? He wont be getting many invitations from the Silovicki or Oligarchs so…thats poverty level!! That wouldn't buy you a sailboat, never mind a luxury ocean-going yacht. But eriously, I remember reading an article about his wealth, and it was estimated at 22 billion. How true this is, I cannot say, but it's believable, and could even be a little on the low side. The Assad family have had 50 years to steal Syrias wealth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭jmreire


    If they have not left by the time HTS arrive, may God help them, because they wont be leaving in that case. They will be shown the same mercy that they had shown Syrians.. and that was none!.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,868 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I have a suspicion the success of this rebellion likely entailed backroom deals between Erdoğan, Putin, and the main rebels groups. Erdogan, knowing Russia has its hand full in Ukraine, could have given Putin an ultimatum.

    It could be that Vlad decided to sell Bashar out on the condition that he gets to keeps his main base in Syria. The fact he has asylum in Russia could have been part of the deal. Of course there is no guarantee the Jihadists stick to any deal longer term. We can see how much faith the Israelis have in Jolani's claim to now be the moderate face of Islam by them bombing Syrian bases to smithereens.

    I won't be shocked if the leader of HTS doesn't see the end of 2025.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    It is now widely reported even reuters mention it that Asad/Putin/Erdo deal was struck that is why there was no fight since this started few days ago. Rebels are mostly Turkish proxies and will do what Erdo order them to do. There was no looting or destruction as Asad handed out power before he left and ordered army not to fight. They were withdrawing and leaving HTS march forward ever since Aleppo. Israel is just bombing ammo depots so HTS wont have much to start any trouble if they decide to find new enemy other than Kurds. There will be inside fighting between IS, HTS and Kurds plus tribal factions. Pretty much civil war. Unfortunatelly this also means it wont end up good for Kurds. Syria will be partitioned that much was clear long time ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,097 ✭✭✭Polar101


    It might help Ukraine indirectly. Russia declared in 2017 (or so) that they'll bomb any Syrian rebels to pieces, and were openly allied with Assad. But as they demonstrated in Armenia, and now in Syria, Russia as an ally is someone that can't be relied upon. Fewer nations might be interested in aligning themselves with Russia, or buying Russian weapons in the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,867 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Russian intel would be something to barter with in discussions with the US and Israel. I'd expect a lot of it to be destroyed already though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,471 ✭✭✭halkar


    They sell plenty AK47s 😁 Even US buys $hit load of them using arms dealers to give terrorists they support.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,867 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Russian AK47's were held in high regard when I lived in the US and could buy them at the corner shop when I visited Florida. Other ones were viewed as knockoffs. This is some time ago, perhaps no longer the case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,090 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    Looks like this prediction was correct

    In a space of a day the spinsters went from “ISIS / terrorists / rebels”

    To “this was all part of 42D chess plan negotiated by master strategist Putin, Erdogan with Assad stabbed in back”

    Meanwhile in Russian papers



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭Grayson


    Like they say in jurrassic park "Life Drugs will find a way."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,483 ✭✭✭crusd


    Why the quotes? Whatever you think about asylum from other areas you cannot possibly think people did not have a genuine reason for fleeing Syria



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,090 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's all part of the master plan.

    Like how Sun Tzu Putin fooled us into thinking his war in Ukraine would take 3 days or tricked us into thinking Ukraine would be gone from Russian soil by October.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    What I don’t understand is

    1. Where does the Jewish global elites with their space lasers fit into this conspiracy
    2. Where does CIA and dastardly Americans fit into the conspiracy narrative
    3. How the hell are Russians going to try to spin throwing their ally under the bus as a positive

    Last week has illustrated to “friends of russia” that Russia has no friends, only Putin’s own interests



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,867 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    And that 'friends of Russia' are idiots. No surprise though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,995 ✭✭✭✭Grayson


    I do wonder what will happen to their bases. Apparently all the ships based there have been put to sea. And their air base, which is inland, is now completly cut off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,186 ✭✭✭✭volchitsa


    That's a really interesting clip, thanks for that. I must say it's not nearly as OTT as I had expected; there's obviously a spin on it, but a lot of it is pretty grounded, and even the spin reminds me of a lot of what was said to justify the US departure from Afghanistan and/or Trump's unforgivable abandonment of the Kurds.

    "If a woman cannot stand in a public space and say, without fear of consequences, that men cannot be women, then women have no rights at all." Helen Joyce



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,054 ✭✭✭Jack Daw


    Does this really matter, a few weeks maybe months of hope and positive outlook and then it'll be back to square one. I do love the idea that now ISIS are the good guys according to the EU, America etc.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,913 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I kind of suspect that the friends of Russia fall into 3 general categories:

    1. Historic geo-political allies from the Cold War: Here we are talking about the likes of North Korea and to a lesser extent China. China is more of a transactional partner, but North Korea is somewhat motivated by historic alliances with the Soviet Union.
    2. Global Pariah States that have no-one else to talk to: North Korea again, but this is also where you get the likes of Iran and pretty much any unrecognised splinter-state that the Russians helped create. They have noone else to talk to apart from the likes of Russia. I think Assad's Syria fit in here too.
    3. Impoverished Tin-Pot dicatorships: These states (usually in Africa) might be operating under the belief that being Russia-friendly and that flying around little Russia flags in videos will get them funding from Russia. What they are either not aware of (or wilfully ignore) is the Monopoly-money state of Russian currency, and just how racist the Russians can be. The Russians might establish a Wagner precence in their state, but that is entirely for the sake of extracting wealth for themselves. This usually includes Sub-Saharan states who have recently had military coups and I guess might also apply to the BRIC-tastic South Africa.

    Regardless of why, the Russian sphere of influence is hodge-podge of semi-useful partners and otherwise semi-useless failed states who make the Warsaw Pact look like some kind of masterpiece of organisational perfection (it wasn't). This is likely part of why Putin is so adminant on holding onto parts of the old Russian Empire…because in reality the modern Russian Federation is functionally alone in the world.



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