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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The closer 2050 gets, the greater the interest will get as the realisation sinks in there isn't any affordable tech for storing energy in the vast quantities needed to have nothing but renewables as power sources.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Any country that has nuclear energy should be looking at extending it as long as possible, and in some cases, there's a good case for expanding that capacity. For the rest of us, it’s not likely.


    Our problem as a nuclear “virgin” is that the global industry is only able to operate by building huge plants, which would create problems for us. Leaving aside the enormous costs of building a plant, once it’s up and running we need backup sufficient to cover any single plant failure - but if just one plant provides 20% of our demand, we need a hell of a lot more interconnection to make that work.


    Speaking of oversized construction, there’s been a significant development in the world of SMRs:

    Nuclear startups face new competition as energy giant Enel enters the ring | TechCrunch

    Much as I’m loathe to spread links from such a bullshit-amplifier as TechCrunch, the companies involved in this are real and serious players in the global mega-infrastructure business, so maybe this is a little more to it than the usual gang of tech-bros trying to swindle billions out of VC funds.

    For background: Enel is the world’s second largest electricity company by revenue (China’s state-owned grid operator is the biggest) and Ansaldo builds power stations, but what’s interesting here is the presence of Leonardo SpA in that consortium. They’re a major European defence conglomerate: SMR technology has been the preserve of military users since its beginnings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I agree with you that ever older reactor should be sweated for all the life that safety will allow ,

    Our grid probably would be big enough to handle a couple of reactors , especially if we have enough energy storage and interconnectors, ( funnily enough the same things wind needs) ,as well as spinning reserve and back up stations , ( same as wind )

    I assume it's not as easy as just asking the Koreans to build us a power plant when theyre done with Poland ,

    But the other thing is - where's all the fuel going to come from , in an increasingly nuclear world,?

    There's no doubt that the data storage industry would appreciate it , maybe we get them to build and run the station , ?

    Can I be the first to recommend lambsy island as site for the station

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,842 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Lambay island can get in the queue. Limerick and Belmullet have already called shotgun for an NPP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Damn it ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Fossil fuel companies are likely to benefit from nuclear. Because it takes funds from renewables and it gets delayed and cancelled. It means they can sell more fossil fuel. Exporters of fossil fuel like UAE and Iran are investing in nuclear so they can export more.

    If you move to a grid where nuclear is on dynamic pricing and has to compete with renewables when available you could end up with a situation where in order to break even you'd need to charge three or four times the price for nuclear power when renewable output was low. In that situation nuclear won't be able to compete with storage.

    Nuclear fission was discovered in 1938. By 1944 the first 250MW plutonium breeding reactors were online. And we've had clean, safe, reliable, portable SMR's since 1953.

    Currently 16 years is the shortest realistic time to add a known working reactor design to an existing nuclear power plant in Western Europe.

    After that it'll take maybe 20-30 years to pay off. The economics of nuclear depend on getting a fixed (index linked) price for all of the power it can produce for that time, and most of it will be paying off interest costs.

    The economics of building an NPP using government borrowing at 2% (which is what the UK had at one point) are completely different to commercial finance which IIRC is more like 8% and over 30 years would be five times the cost. It's not the upfront cost of nuclear that's scary, it's the repayments.

    There's also the failure rate. The USA has a 50% failure rate for most of the last four decades on plants that actually started construction. More recently 50% cost overruns, not counting financing costs. Japan is struggling to get unaffected reactors back on line. France got caught out a little while back while trying to keep old reactors running too long.

    You can't compare the advertised costs for future nuclear with today's renewables. We know renewables will get cheaper. The limiting factor is probably waiting to retool the factories for newer types of solar panels until after they've paid for the costs of the previous changes. In the UK the regulator required an additional 30-50% more concrete and steel to the new reactors, while in solar that's the sort of reduction in overall materials used in the next panels, with even more reductions in and substitutions for silver, copper, silicon and aluminium.

    The current learning curve for solar is close it getting cheaper by 40% in real terms per year. The learning curve for nuclear is positive , even the French during their massive rollout of similar nuclear plants back in the day were finding costs were increasing towards the end.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,398 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It is coming up to three years since this thread started as a breakaway from the energy one. Now at 1700+ posts and 35 pages. That is an average of 10 posts per week.

    The pro-nuclear posters point to the limits of renewables, the current NPP projects in various countries, and the high cost of gas-powered plants.

    The anti-nuclear ones post to the long lead times, need to back up the NPP and the unsuitably large size they are for the Irish grid, and the high failure rate of NPP projects, particularly in the USA.

    I do not see any movement from the usual suspect posters, and a very high level of repetition.

    Should this thread be abandoned?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    No.

    This thread exists as a safety valve for the broader energy infrastructure one. It being here means that people who have no desire to see the endless back and forth of the nuclear debate don't have the other thread polluted with those arguments.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭gjim


    "The pro-nuclear posters point to the limits of renewables, the current NPP projects in various countries, and the high cost of gas-powered plants."

    I think this is being generous. I'd love to debate nuclear with an interested supporter and I actually follow a pro-nuclear youtube channel and have always been fascinated by the technology - but the vast majority of "pro-nuclear" posters that turn up in any energy discussion here are more interested in engaging in some culture-war fantasy of "owning the greens" and most are confessed climate change skeptics.

    Being "pro-nuclear" in Infrastructure, doesn't mean you're interested in the actual technology, how it works, its history, the current state of the global nuclear fleet, etc. - instead it seems to have become a cover for climate change skepticism.

    This thread exists as a safety valve for the broader energy infrastructure one. 

    Yes exactly. When a new fresh faced "pro-nuclear" poster turns up, polluting the main thread with pro-nuclear, anti-renewables, "owning the greens", with their exciting discovery that wind is intermittent, EVs suck, etc. then they can be directed here. Ideally all the ideological bs could be confined to this thread while the energy one would be for more informed and technical discussion.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,398 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Mod: OK - this thread stays.



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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    I'd love to see the main "Energy Infrastructure" thread split into two, maybe three threads, something like:

    • "Energy Infrastructure Ireland - Today to 2030's"
    • "Energy Infrastructure Ireland - Post 2050"
    • "Energy Infrastructure Ireland - Policy and Strategy"

    The first would focus only on our existing energy infrastructure and the plans under way in the short term. The current grid, projects like the new interconnectors, new BESS, new gas generators, new wind and solar, along with the ongoing RESS auctions, etc.

    The "Post 2050" thread could cover Nuclear, SMR's, Hydrogen, Biogas, etc.

    The "Policy and Strategy" thread could be the wild west where people can discuss if the government direction is a good idea, the cost of it all, etc.

    I'm on the Energy Infrastructure thread for the excellent updates that posters like @Apogee give on real projects. It is frustrating seeing the thread polluted by climate change deniers nonsense. Every time I go to the thread I hope to read updates on real projects, not what I often find unfortunately.

    I also agree completely with @gjim it is such a pity we can't have an interesting conversation about Nuclear technology and the honest pros and cons of it and how that might be fixed.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/27/why-are-new-nuclear-projects-still-too-costly-in-europe

    The overnight cost of new European-built reactors, which excludes financing during construction, exceeds €10m per megawatt. … For a typical pair of European Pressurised Reactors, this translates into an investment of up to €50bn,

    And you can't ignore the cost of financing because it'll be at least 16 years of accumulating interest before there'll be any income and the energy market will have changed considerably by then. As will the regulatory conditions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    We already have nuclear.
    British nuclear via the interconnector.
    Soon to be French nuclear via the Celtic interconnector.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,459 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Maybe I've missed something but why would a climate change denier promote nuclear energy?

    If one rejects the theory of Anthropogenic Climate Change, then it would follow on from such a view that we should continue burning coal. Today, a pro-nuclear view is the logical result of looking at the utter failure of policies like the German Energiewende where they spent Lord knows how many billions on it and still have an order of magnitude worse carbon emissions per kwh of energy used than what France has managed since the 1970s.

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    Help us in helping Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    Because new Nuclear is at best 16 years away everywhere except China, saying 'let's invest in nuclear instead of wind/solar/geo' sounds a lot better than 'let's burn all the remaining coal oil and gas' to normal people. But the result of listening to that,and a country plowing all investment into nuclear at the expense of other green power techs is a minimum of 16 years increasingly burning fossil fuels to meet energy demand instead of replacing a ton of fossil use with new wind and solar in the next few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Climate-change denialiam isn't a scientific position, it's a political one: it's a form of reactionary Conservatism.

    Similarly, the Green movement was at its outset, a political one. The Greens started as a radical, left-wing anti-pollution movement, and on that basis, they opposed Nuclear energy.

    Conservatives, meanwhile, opposed the Greens on principle because the Green movement challenged their status quo. Thus, political conservatives supported Nuclear power mainly because it already existed and the Greens opposed it.

    Later, as climate-change came to the fore, and more "ordinary" people became concerned about the environment, the Green position on Nuclear split, with the newer, more pragmatic, scientifically-minded members forming a Nuclear-tolerant wing alongside the more political "never nuclear" camp.

    However, political conservatives have stuck to their position throughout this, and still cheerlead for Nuclear. To them it has nothing to do with CO2: it's purely an opposition to what they see as unacceptable change (renewables, demand pricing, polluter-pays policies) from the Greens. You'll find a strong crossover between Climate-change denialism and other strands of reactionary politics, like the perpetual "culture-war".

    Before anyone starts a row: the question was specifically about climate-change deniers, so my answer is only about deniers. I am well aware that one can be sceptical about renewable energy without being a climate-change denier: while denialism almost always implies scepticism, that doesn't mean the reverse is true. (or, “p⇒q ⊬ q⇒p” if you prefer)

    Post edited by KrisW1001 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Just to set things straight; my opposition to renewables and favouring of nuclear is that it is considerably cheaper and is better in every way and doesn't incorporate the visual pollution and blighting of the landscape with solar panels or wind turbines or the insane environmentally destructive proposition, regularly posited, of flooding vast tracts of the landscape in order to band-aid the massive energy storage hole renewables can never dig their way out of.


    Not only is nuclear cheaper than either OSW or solar, it has a significantly greater CO2 reduction effect. That Norwegian paper recently calculated Germany would have decreased their CO2 output a further 70% of that achieved so far with their Energiewende renewables insanity, the same insanity this country is pursuing.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,398 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    In the Guardian today:

    Four of UK’s oldest nuclear plants to run for even longer as Hinkley Point delayed

    EDF extends life of reactors to ‘boost energy security’ and bridge gap before new Somerset project starts up

    So a delayed Hinkley Point means it is going to cost more because of extra finance before switch on plus inflation.

    I think that an Irish nuclear plant will never happen until the small modular nuclear plants become cheap - which I suspect will be never.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,842 ✭✭✭✭josip


    I’d prefer to have visual pollution over air pollution. Especially when you consider the lead time to get a NPP built. I’m also one of those weirdos who don’t find wind turbines visually intrusive, I find them interesting to look at and watch. It makes no difference to me when I’m hill walking, if it’s up through a wind farm, beside a hill with a windfarm or on a mountain far away from wind turbines.

    There’s also a difference between the Germans nuclear decision and ours. The Germans had nuclear and were scammed by the world’s biggest gas dealer (Putin) into giving it up so that he could sell them more gas. That was a poor decision; I think nearly everyone agrees about that, not just in hindsight.

    But we missed the nuclear boat back in the 70s and whether that was the right or wrong decision at the time, that ship has sailed. There is zero commercial or political appetite for nuclear in Ireland. This thread is one of the few places in the country where you will see the idea floated. All the NPP proponents have got to ask themselves why is that? Is everyone else wrong and they are the only ones who see the bigger picture?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    I can see nuclear in Ireland happening exactly as soon as modular off the shelf NPPs are being mass produced, which will be some time between now and the 12th of Never



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    This might be one of the 'few' places, but the others have substantial credibility.

    and so on.

    But what would engineers know about such things…? Much better to listen to the mindless witterings of a cycling tours vendor.

    None other than the head of Engineers Ireland:

    So this is not the only place in Ireland where this discusssion is taking place or has arisen.

    The boat has not been missed, it's a ridiculous assertion. The UAE, South Korea, Finland, Poland, France, etc, have all recently commisssioned new reactors or are on course to having them built.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    Nuclear is the grey bit at the bottom. It's up and down rather than being dependable baseload.

    Nuclear output in the UK at the start of this month was 2.37GW and you're suggesting that after meeting UK demand there was a surplus to export ?

    https://gridwatch.co.uk/

    image.png

    How much power was France exporting when they had half their plants offline because they didn't appreciate that their plants would suffer the same corrosion issues that plagued the same type of plants in the US earlier ?

    How long overall will it take for France or the UK to install enough new plants to replace the old ones they've already closed down ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    I was merely stating that we already get nuclear generated electricity in Ireland via the interconnector, which i believe is a fully correct statement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,431 ✭✭✭gjim


    Maybe I've missed something but why would a climate change denier promote nuclear energy?

    Because they think it's some sort of checkmate intellectual move that will "own the greens/libs/whatever".

    So they're not actually interested in nuclear at from what I've observed here - the deniers/nuclear promoters know little of the technical aspects or recent history of the sector and none that I can see have any kind of technical/engineering background or interest.

    I think there's a significant intersection with the type that are into conspiracy theories. The personal type is typically convinced of their own unique abilities, intelligence and insights. When presented with the irrefutable fact that renewables have out-competed every other form of generation for investment for the last decade GLOBALLY whether in free liberal markets or command economies and at all sort of scales, it's mentally easier for many to cling to the belief that the world is full of "sheeple", hippies and fools who are too dumb to see or recognize how great nuclear power is.

    If one rejects the theory of Anthropogenic Climate Change, then it would follow on from such a view that we should continue burning coal.

    It's not about logic or consistency, it's about a narcissistic need to look "smart" and denying AGW is not a "smart" look these days given all the widely available evidence. It will get you laughed out of the room.

    Today, a pro-nuclear view is the logical result of looking at the utter failure of policies like the German Energiewende where they spent Lord knows how many billions on it and still have an order of magnitude worse carbon emissions per kwh of energy used than what France has managed since the 1970s.

    To claim that Energiewende has been an "utter failure" is at least a gross exaggeration if not simply false. I don't mind conceding that it may have failed in some aspects if you can provide some fact-checkable numbers? It has been a success according a bunch of metrics: in terms of electricity supply security, Germany has gone from being the biggest importer of electricity in the world in the 1990s to being in the top three global exporters every year for the last 20 years. Coal use has declined by more than 60% since 2000, Lignite by even more, the reliability of the grid has improved significantly (look for SAIDI numbers), the amount of CO2 emissions involved in electricity generation has fallen by more than half, etc.

    Comparing Energiewende to a French energy program from decades in the past makes no sense - the 1970s was a completely different world in terms of the energy sector. Not only was the decade dominated by the oil crisis, but many widely-used technologies we take for granted like natural gas turbines, HVDC, high-voltage transmission, batteries, wind turbines, PV panels either did not exist at the time or were niche/not commercially viable. That's before you consider the advances in the sophistication of grid management and grid planning.

    We can no more use a program from the 1970s as a model for a modern energy policy than we could use Roman approaches to road building to build a modern motorway system. What "worked" 50 years ago will simply NOT work today - if it did France wouldn't have spent the last 17 years trying to construct a single reactor in Flammenville while in the 70s they were finishing multiple reactors per year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    FFS, if you look at the French nuclear on any day, it varies in output by as much as 40%, I have noted.

    The problem is your entrenched negativism has blinded you to the fact that nuclear is in fact quite adjustable, contrary to your belief that it isn't

    France had an issue with 30-40 year old reactors, how, surprising, but those reactors on average over their existence have earned billions in exports, enough to finance a new reactor every three years, had they so chosen.

    Last year, France produced more zero CO2 energy than the country consumed in total, they are meeting the 2050 emission targets right now, while you do your chicken little act trying to discredit nuclear with every breath.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,939 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    So wind farms at any cost to the environment or sensitive landscapes despite their many limitations as reliable energy providers?? Your type then have a cheek to accuse others of not caring about the planet!! Also you appear to be suffering from something called "Carbon Blindness or Tunnel Vision" neatly illustrated below

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    The US gets it's nuclear fuel from Canada , so they're fine ,

    France got it's from west Africa, that's going away ..quickly

    Australia is upping production, but that's likely to go to US "allies " in the Pacific ,

    Which kind of leaves the 2 really big nuclear fuel players , Russia and khazakstan - not really on the best terms with Europe,

    So nuclear fuel security might be as bad as natural Gas..

    https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20241205-niger-military-junta-seizes-control-of-french-uranium-operations

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,842 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Where have I accused others of not caring for the planet? I think everybody on here does care about it; we just have different opinions on how to go about it and there are a variety of opinions. I can appreciate people's concerns about wind and support of nuclear. I just think that Ireland is not the best country to be in to realise those ambitions in 2024. That's the unfortunate reality. Our situation would be a lot easier if we had built nuclear in the 70s. But maybe not everyone on here is old enough to remember that Ireland was an economic basket case in the 70s and 80s. I don't know where the money for an NPP would have come from at the time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Was Ireland a basket case in the 70s ?

    I can very vaguely remember the late 70s give away budget , where jack lynch bought the election, maybe if he'd bought a power station instead then the 80s wouldn't have been so unendingly bleak.. although we'd probably just have the ruined remains of a half built power station somewhere ,

    Even in the 70s I doubt we could have pulled off building a nuclear power station anywhere in the country , there were protests about the possibility of one in carnsore point, that's before you get to the economics, or practicality of having a couple of reactors on our then tiny grid ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,377 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    What are the main things stopping nuclear in Ireland now? Just no interested TDs? I can't imagine any TD or Minister allowing it in their constituency.



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