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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    Russia controlled double the land they do now in 2022

    The obsession Russians have with land and the continued willingness to die in waves like lemmings for dirt they probably would lose the moment Putin dies (and oligarch rats turn on each other) is incredible

    Zero lessons learned from last time they overstretched and got their asses handed to them and lost larger chunk in Kursk than they captured in all of this year

    But like I said earlier, if Russians want to try to spin their mess as a victory, good for them, if it means most of them go home to terrorise their fellow orcs, thats great for em

    IMG_5537.jpeg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭uptherebels


    For it to be proportional the ratio needs to remain constant. Not can stay the same. Must stay the same

    So if you don't know what the ratio is, then you don't know if it is constant so can't claim proportionality.

    That's why you were asked to explain it. To show your understanding of the term or lack thereof



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,936 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Yeah I don't get the fixation on land either. Ukraine's strategy is relatively sound, make Russia pay in a completely unsustainable way for every yard. There's been no big defeats, no war-changing moments or even a hint of one, just a dreadful grind with Russia taking particularly terrible casualties.

    It's also a terrible yardstick by which to measure who is "winning" in the overall scheme of things. The German offensive in 1918 broke through Allied lines all over the place, resulted in the biggest land gains since 1914, put Paris under threat again, etc. Six odd months later the war was over and the Germans had surrendered.

    The amount of land Russia has captured so far this year is, in itself, pretty insignificant and only really means anything at all if you believe that Russia will ultimately be left in a position to retain everything it holds if and when the conflict is frozen or ends.

    The real question is not who's winning based on minuscule incremental seizures of ground. It's how long the attacker and the invading country, which isn't fighting on an existential level like the invaded country, can sustain the cost and strain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,126 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    It’s amazing to think that not too long expressing support for Russia over America would have been career ending for media or Republican individuals



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,766 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Putin probably has a higher genuine approval rating in the US now than in Russia.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    The problem for those celebrities and politicians who are wearing the Russian flag is that the public can turn against them on a dime

    Let’s say Russian buddies the Iranians damage an aircraft carrier

    Or Russian buddies in China invade Taiwan

    Or Russia itself attacks US forces like they done in Syria and actually causes serious multiple casualties

    Or Russian cargo bomb brings down a passenger plane full of Americans

    The day after those “friends of Russia” might want to be knocking at nearest Russian embassy looking for asylum



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 896 ✭✭✭Avatar in the Post


    The many usual suspects…

    “Ukraine is retreating. The defeated Zelensky is giving up land.

    Woe is Ukraine! (crocodile tears) WOE IS UKRAINE!!!

    It’s Hilarious. The battle of the bulge was mentioned above where the Germans gained land in a last ditch effort, that was ultimately fruitless. Secondly, The Red Chums forget the Greatest Russian Victory EVER was when they retreated before the Germans allowing them to move further East where Germans lost millions of troops.

    Also, has Zelensky actually given up any land? No. But, he is making shapes to show Putin is the problem here in every way. Any Red Chums here think Putin would agree to have rUkraine be a member of NATO? It would be a HUGE humiliation for Putin. Zelensky is playing Putin like a fiddle.

    Who saw Ukraine invade Russia to prove the emperor has no clothes?

    The Red Chums on boards.ie cannot even play 3D chess. But, they have great capacity to disregard looking like idiots. I’ll give them that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,337 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Proportional losses means when Russian losses increase so does Ukrainian. ... If the ratio is 4:1 then when Russian loses go from 1000 a day to 1500 then it is likely that Ukraine losses went from 250 to 375 on the same day.

    Yeah, I know what proportional means (and it's a hell of a lot stricter than you seem to think); but if you're talking about who's winning and losing, you can't wave your hands around and say "I don't know what the ratio is" and then base your next argument on that unknown.

    Sure, if the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian deaths is 4:1 your example might hold true. But is that the real figure? All reliable information from the frontlines, coming from both sides, indicates that it is not. The real figure for deaths is seemingly closer to 10:1 in the areas of active urban combat, and possibly 30 or 50:1 or higher in the "meat wave" sectors. Your assumption that the proportion remains the same is inherently flawed, because we know that Russia is sending troops on a one-way mission more and more, and we know that Ukraine is getting better at killing Russians further and further behind the frontline.

    So once again, what's your definition of winning?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,176 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Given the way Putin's financial situation is heading, 6 mths could turn out to be the end of him, no matter how many weapons he has left in stock…wars need cash, lots and lots of it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,126 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    Interesting article posted recently about how Russia can’t afford to lose or win the war. If they gain control of eastern Ukraine they’ll have to bear the cost of rebuilding an area they have flattened with a shot economy. Where are all the locals who lived there living now?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,153 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    At the moment they don't worry about rebuilding or regional economies on occupied territory - there are no consequences of that to Putin. All that matters is taking Ukrainian territory. Once they secure it, it's Russian "forever", and something will eventually emerge out of the ash (like Grozny)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,176 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Maybe not, but sure as hell, its treason when he orders his police and military to turn their weapons on protesting citizens of his country.

    He's desperate, when you as a public figure are reduced to shilling for Putin, and reporting about supermarket trolleys, that's it! The absolute pits.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,176 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Not if the FSA + "others" control Tartous, they wont!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,577 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Seeing lots of reports of poisonings of children in Russia. Mostly in the communal facilities like schools. But now seeing propaganda from the top about children of migrants in Russia. It's smelling like the authorities have plans on the children of migrants to do what they did with the children of Ukraine. That is take their identity away. Give them Russian names. Raise as Russian as Russian can be in Russian families. And now with proposed laws coming in about lowering employment age get them into the economy as loyalists, fighting and working for Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    There has been plenty of stories on podcasts such as Economist, BBC Ukrainecast and Telegraph Ukraine the Latest about stories about what’s happened in occupied territories in last three years, usually it’s one of these:

    • dead
    • tortured → dead
    • sent concentration camp → quite likely dead
    • kidnapped and dumped on orphanages
    • kidnapped and trafficked into child sex slavery in Chechnya and Arab places
    • refused evacuation offers, got Russian glide bomb or artillery turning their house into a coffin → dead
    • gang pressed into meat assaults → dead
    • made work in mines as slaves
    • dead due to lack of healthcare as hospitals full of Russian soldiers getting priority

    There have been somewhat happier endings

    • became refugee in Russia and managed escape via Baltics and either claim asylum or make way back to free Ukraine
    • got exchanged for POWs
    • bribed Russians to let em through (this was common in initial weeks of war) to free Ukraine

    Now that I think about it there was a quote one Ukrainian soldier said about liberating all of Ukraine

    “Why? There’s nothing there but rubble, fat rats and dogs and colonising Russians trying to snap up cheap abandoned apartments in buildings managed to survive”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,851 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,577 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Ha ha ha …if true.

    Putin being the grand daddy of history in warfare and not realising it's 2024.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 880 ✭✭✭junkyarddog


    Despicable behavior,but I guess we now expect nothing less from that cesspit of a country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,577 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    It should also be noted the Chinese are in town right at this moment to see the effect of western sanctions on Russian banks. And how they could run into problems if they invade Taiwan and what the west could do to their banking system. So if the Russian bank collapses it may save Taiwan and cause China to think twice or thrice against the notion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,933 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Reminds me a lot of this scene in the Simpsons (I hope GIFs work…)

    IMG_2187.gif

    It was just a joke back then, but damn…they guessed right with Russia.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    Where are all the locals who lived there living now?

    Athlone, the poor bastards.


    A little gentle ribbing, no need for the Westmeath Militia to jump down my throat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    @zv2 was right

    Ukraine did attack and advance in Kursk

    Now reported by Forbes in more detail


    Meanwhile fluff article with few facts you linked remains the only article on bbc in over three days showing that BBC don’t have capacity (or interest? Or funding) to cover this war in detail like other publications such as ISW, Telegraph and NYT do day after day

    IMG_5538.jpeg


    Oh and here is one for “friends of Russia” who tried to spin that Ukraine is not willing to negotiate



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,110 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    The sanctions on Gazprombank have hit Russia very hard. But as with so many things, it was left too late.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,220 ✭✭✭yagan


    I never could understand the BBC underreporting on this conflict.

    One interesting standout about the BBC programme Question Time in the years prior to the brexit vote was that not one pro EU UK MEP was ever invited onto it, yet Farage was invited on repeatedly and if I recall rightly I think he was on the panel something like 20 times.

    If you were to believe that Russia had influenced Brexit to weaken EU unity then there's plenty of bias on display in the BBC to bolster that suspicion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Kidnapped children and giving them to old kgb/fsb support people is something Russia has doing for years. Forced population growth i think it can be called. All the state run places like orphanages are empty for obvious reasons. I would not be surprised if north Korea and China were the main supplier is the past. It's all so far down the dystopia horror movie that's it's almost hard to believe.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,220 ✭✭✭yagan


    Just on the sanctions it looks like Japan has an exemption to importing Russian LNG

    The sanctions, however, made exemptions for transactions related to the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project in Russia's far east until June 28, 2025, according to an updated general license published by the treasury department."The Sakhalin-2 is important for Japan's energy security," Muto told a news conference on Friday, noting there is no immediate disruption as transactions through Gazprombank with Sakhlin-2 or Sakhalin Energy are excluded from the sanction.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/osaka-gas-says-us-sanctions-gazprombank-will-not-impact-its-russian-lng-purchase-2024-11-22/

    It's amazing how certain countries avoid any criticism when enabling Russians invasion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,962 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I think the territorial"concessions " that Zelensky is talking about are 2 fold , (one) setting the stage to the incoming American regime that the Ukrainians are reasonable, they don't want this to be a forever war funded by the West ,

    & Two , setting the stage for their own people , they'd already done this previously to an extent with Crimea, stating what is militarily possible/ or even likely..

    That doesn't mean that Ukraine have written off their lost territories, but in this war , now . the Donbass, Geographically is not like kursk or kharkiv, a quick assault won't retake all or most of it , it would be a relentless slog ,(as the Russians have shown ) ,

    The Russians struggled to take it in 2014 (once the Ukrainians started to get their act together)

    They've slogged since 2022 , as well , at huge cost .. I don't think Ukraine is even considering that as an option,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    IMG_5543.png

    very concerning, much sadness

    All those young Russian men who got dragged out of night clubs and won’t be around to make babies for Putin furthering the population decline



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 880 ✭✭✭junkyarddog




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