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November Vanilla Werewolf - Game Thread

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Comments

  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 21,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭Leg End Reject




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Why is everyone ignoring Trit in favour of Lord? I see no reason for the Lord wagon.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 21,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭Leg End Reject




  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    There's a whole day to work things out. If Lord is a wolf, why does he not vote Oscar there that's the million dollar question.

    There's two scenarios for this:

    The first is that Oscar is a wolf, so voting there would kill her. But Strawbs is already bussing in this scenario so why not take the last minute switch, kill Oscar wolf and have Strawbs and himself look lock clear as a result?

    The second is that another, as yet unknown wolf is ALSO voting Oscar, so for Lord to vote there means all three are on the same person. Oscar is village in this scenario so it looks terrible for all three wolves aboard the same wagon if she flips. The only other voters on Oscar are you and trit. Lord moved his vote from you to trit.

    So you can see why, in the case of Lord flipping wolf - it would not be a good look for you at all?

    I am only dealing with the facts here, my own thoughts don't come into play here at all.

    And, I have to stress this pretty strongly - we need to flip Lord to confirm ANY of this so this is all just a load of 'Who Shot John' until we know what Lord's alignment is.

    If Lord is village, it's an entirely different set of circumstances.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,709 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red


    I hate it when Necro is right



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,793 ✭✭✭tritium


    so Lord goes from me not being on his radar to me being his pick for a late vote


    I’ll have a one person ffa for you all tomorrow



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro




  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 21,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭Leg End Reject


    Why would strawbs and Lord look lock clear if they'd both voted on Oscar and she flipped wolf? It's not unheard of for wolves to bus to argue they're village later in the game.

    Strawbs was on Oscar from early in the game, but Oscar was getting attention so that could have been distancing. At that point strabs wasn't getting much attention apart from being called out on her low post count, but she was a low poster in a previous game and wasn't a wolf.

    Oscar voted for strawbs who didn't look like she was in danger and then held so whichever one of them flipped gave the remaining one an argument for being village.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Well I was going to bed but I'll answer this first.

    How does Greens vote on Strawbs to kill the wolf look, let's go back to actual factual scenarios. Would you agree he's much more likely to be village than a wolf on the balance of probabilities?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭lorcand1990


    Morning all

    No surprises where my vote will be going later 🤣

    Am I finally gonna get my Lordy lynch!?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭lorcand1990


    Looking at d1 votes I'm the last of the single voters that isn't on the very likely good list

    I'd imagine that could be a talking point so to clarify now my vote on Lord was not any sort of throwaway vote or looking to hide. I was on lord early Monday and never moved my vote



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 42,954 Mod ✭✭✭✭Lord TSC


    that just feels like OMGUS. 😂


    morning all. Looks like there was a really heavy push overnight for me, huh? :/ I guess I’ll be spending today fighting an uphill battle anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,591 ✭✭✭MacDanger


    I'm going to go back over the voting last night and will hopefully report back before munch



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Don't understand push on Lord. They may be a wolf but to me nothing in their game play suggests that.

    I was number one suspect for two days because I was suspicious. My so called suspicious behaviour was brought up over and over by three posters.

    Lord was regarded as highly suspicious after the first lynch as he had 'saved' me, the most likely big bad wolf. So he and I were now linked, and one of us most likely wolf.

    Now it is generally accepted that I am likely village, but Lord is still suspicious, partly because they were already deemed suspicious by the group.

    But last night's suspicious behaviour looks decidedly more village like if I am in fact a villager.

    Also I Don't see how changing a vote to Tritium indicates likely wolf. Trit was and is one of the most suspicious players. Highly associated with Strawbs a known wolf, and called out for faking their FFA on me, likely village.

    Their was a wagon building on both me and Lord pre lynch, but he didn't really try and direct it on me. A wolf would happily let a villager take the fall, but villagers are more unsure. They did call out stuff I said several times, but it seemed genuine and seemed more like trying to get a handle on my alignment.

    Also they knew late switching/switching spots could be used against them but did it anyway. Speaks to me of a villager trying to get their vote right than wolf as I was easiest wolf target.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Also, I truly believe Necro is village not wolf, as wolves know my alignment as villager and they were directly responsible for removing wagon from me and starting new wagon on Strawbs, known wolf with less suspicions on them than me.

    However this yeet a person to flip as villager stuff is bad gameplay. Flipping a villager reveals a villager. Gives little reliable info beyond that as any actions around that individual can be explained as confused pillaging.

    Flipping a wolf is the real game changer. Both in terms of actual game play and we get real info in terms of what way they voted and can examine their interactions on threads.

    We need to hunt those mose suspicious as wolves not most suspicious villagers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭lorcand1990


    Vote notes

    Leggy, strawbs and trit all vote on oscar both days

    Macdanger on leggy then trit

    Yoss on Maniac then lord

    Necro on Liz then lord



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Also with regards the narrative that Yoss faking their vote on Trit clears both Yoss and Trit as village but makes Lord suspect wolf, there are a number of issues with that.

    If both Strawbs and Trit were wolves with possible third non Yoss non Lord wolf than they may not have had the numbers to flip the wagons given the way the votes were spread. If this is the case voters on the non Strawbs/non Trit wagons should be scrutinised in detail.

    If Yoss and Trit were both wolves this scheme could have been cooked up precisely to clear them and pin wagon on last Trit voter while knowing Trit was safe. There are a few supporting points: one Yoss saying this clears Trit, which is a leap IMO. Also before Neo died he called out Trit for their fake FFA, Yoss declared he noted this and then started questioning me. Called me a big bad wolf. Against Yoss as wolf though they have never voted for me, and would have been best way to save Strawbs last night. I lean village on Yoss but want to point this out

    Also once again a vote for Trit is not suspicious. They are one of the wolfiest players in the game.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Note too, Lord voting Leggy both nights yet moves late on without declaring both nights to Liz night 1 and trit night 2

    In fact, had Lord not moved night 1 its possible Leggy may have been yeeted as two others were voting her. Liz was yeeted on three votes via last vote cast



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Also in case I'm munched.

    Trit and Leg are still sticking with the me being a wolf narrative. They may be doing this and planning to munch me as a way to cover themselves, e.g. if we were wolves we wouldn't do that.

    I still think they'll go with someone else as I am not as lock clear as village as much as Jayo or Green, so still lynch wagon potential.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    I don't know what the second paragraph means. Yeet a person to flip a villager?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 827 ✭✭✭jayo44


    @OscarMIlde for all your posting there this morning on lord I still would not rule you out being wolf I still think it needs to be considered.

    Yeah you vote strawbs on second night fair play but in first night you vote liz, someone lord switched too late that ended up saving you. I don't think your bailed on wolf or bathing but I don't think you should be guaranteed village.

    As per lynching lord I personally feel that he is wolf all along so it's not a big deal for me to vote there but on the chance that I am wrong it will answer some questions and raise more. Eitherway I'm OK with lynching lord.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Well unless I'm taking you up wrong you're suggesting Lord wagon to see if they show as village. Shouldn't we be going after the most wolfy game play. Nit picking voting patterns ignores that villagers Don't know anyone's alignment and may inadvertently save a wolf or condemn a villager. If Strawbs had turned out to be village then people would be gunning for Green. If Trit is wolf and Yoss hadn't misdirected than Lord would be lock clear villager.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭lorcand1990


    And Leggy was humming and hawing over voting lord, definitely d1 and I think d2 also and didn't go there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭lorcand1990


    There are no guaranteed villagers that are alive. We have strong village leans- you're obviously one of them. Nobody is cleared as it is impossible



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Nope I want Lord dead because I think he's by far the most likely wolf!

    But obviously, as a villager I cannot be certain on this.

    Voting patterns are important though - remember that wolves know exactly who their team-mates are so will more likely than not vote to save each other.

    So, in the event that Lord turns out to be a wolf - this information becomes extremely relevant.

    As I said repeatedly though last night - it's all circumstantial evidence until we yeet Lord and find out if he's a wolf



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 827 ✭✭✭jayo44


    I get ya and I agree I should rephrase it but you know what I mean.

    I don't think Oscar should be not looked at down the line. She was using herself as part of the argument that everyone thought she was wolf but now it turns out she is villager just because she voted strawbs last night.

    To me there's possible connections between the 3 of them.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    It's not just that though, Strawbs would have to have been bussing her own team mate from almost the start of the game. Now, it's not impossible it's just not the most likely scenario in my eyes

    But don't worry, it's certainly not being overlooked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭lorcand1990


    Yeah I agree down the line if it's an issue they absolutely need to be looked at

    I've said a few times we can't rule out bussing. I'm with you on Lord anyway for next lynch, he's been my strongest wolf lean all game



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,905 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 827 ✭✭✭jayo44


    I was today years old when I discovered what bussing means 😂😂😂😂

    3 wolves..... If they thought they were going to lose one anyway would it be wild for them each to vote against the other at some stage in the first few nights to down the line strengthen their position when it comes down to the final six or so.



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