Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Defense of their own land is the goal for Ukraine.

Ideally to reclaim what Putin has invaded and stolen. Most of us suspect that full reclaim may be very difficult (unless the Ru military or the leadership has a partial or full collapse) and that down the line this will probably end at the table. Ukraine don't have any option but to defend themselves and fight as hard as possible, anything less only encourages Putin to take more from them.

Again the language and phrases you use are bizarre and betray all kinds of strange world views.

Meanwhile in Russia another Putin critic has an unfortunate accident out a window…

A Russian ballet dancer who was an outspoken critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine has mysteriously plunged to his death from the fifth floor of a building. 

Vladimir Shklyarov, a married father of two, plummeted around 60 feet to the ground from a building on Saturday, a spokesperson for the Mariinsky Theater in St. Petersburg, where the 39-year-old was the highest-ranking dancer, told Fontanka.

Russian authorities initially labeled the fall an accident, blaming the painkillers he was taking before a complex spinal surgery

If one were to purely look at the battlefield in terms of territory gained/lost, I can see how one might make the mistake to think that Russia is winning this war at the moment.

If we look more broadly at all the battlefield statistics being reported, it's clear that the Russians are losing men and materiel at unsustainable levels while Ukraine is still refusing to sacrifice it's future by holding off on mobilising their youth. Certainly, Ukraine is losing soldiers too but almost three years in and we've seen few, if any, confirmed reports of battles where Ukraine has lost more than Russia. Sacrificing territory for the lives of those who'll continue to bravely defend the next line is sound military doctrine.

Again, looking at the wider picture. Almost every "successful" missile strike by Russian forces reported involves them murdering civilians. Contrast that with the multiple UAF strikes we're hearing of every week where they're dismantling the Russian war machine and the petrochemical infrastructure funding it. One side's "successes" encourage it's opponent to fight on, the other's damage the invaders ability to fight on (and in turn destroys the morale of the invader's troops).

Sure, ceterus paribus, it's hard to see Ukraine managing to militarily turn the tide on the frontline to the extent that they could fully liberate the lands stolen from them. The status quo never remains the status quo, however. There are many, many things which could change this situation.

One of the simplest is the fact that the dictator in charge of the aggressor is a 72 year old man in a country where he has a life expectancy of 73.4 (2019 data). Even in the US, this demographic has an incidence of heart attacks of about 18% (while Russian figures are far higher, it's probably more accurate to use US stats as Putin's healthcare is more likely to be on a par with a first world country than the second world kleptocracy he rules).

The Russians made a very foolish mistake in Bucha by demonstrating to Ukrainians that surrender means death, torture, rape and destruction. A negotiated settlement that doesn't involve full NATO membership for Ukraine (or iron-clad guarantees of US lead "boots on the ground" support in the eventuality of a further incursion) - something which Russia is utterly unwilling to accept - amounts to little more than a slower surrender so Ukrainians will fight on with or without US support. Europe hasn't been as supportive as it should have been either but it's a pretty fair assumption that even if Putin's pet pervert totally pulls US support in January, Europe will step up more. It may not amount to as much support as the US would be withdrawing in this scenario but, it'll keep them in the fight until such time as Putin dies, the oligarchy/silovicki get sick of watching their fortunes dwindle, the Russian economy collapses completely or some black swan event occurs.

I'm the same age demographic as most of the men in the UAF and you can be damn sure were we in the same situation as Ukrainians have found themselves in: where surrender meant sacrificing my wife and underage daughter to the depravities of Russian soldiers, I'd be staying on the frontlines to kill as many of the bastards as I could (or more realistically given the fact I'm an overweight, out-of-shape middle aged guy with no military training: working in whatever support role my superiors deemed me most useful in) before I inevitably met my fate.

Ukraine does have options even now. Spurning negotiations has not helped Ukraine and its not served Ukrainian interests. At every point where Ukraine chose to spurn negotiations, its worked out badly for them. Crimea in early 2014 after going back on the power-sharing deal. Donetsk and Luhansk lost after refusing to negotiate with the separatists. The territory lost since 2022 after pulling out of the Istanbul deal.

In no way can Ukraine be said to be in a better position now than it was entering negotiations in 2022 or 2014. If the Minsk agreements had been implemented, or the Istanbul agreement reached Ukraine's position would be vastly better. At all times the "friends of Ukraine" have argued against negotiations, and at all times when following their advice, Ukraine's position has gotten worse. To the point that even the "friends of Ukraine" acknowledge now that the 1991 borders is unachievable.

That has been the end result of 10 years of the never negotiate stance. It's just led to Russia taking more.

You talk through your ass.

Well, israel should negotiate too, but they wont so their position gets inevitably worse and worse even despite massive backing from NATO countries to carry out their war crimes. Something to learn from maybe.

The "friends of Ukraine" are not the victims.

nobody in the western allies promised Ukraine that they would take back all their territory or did they ?

Ukraine hasn't spurned negotiations, nothing real or genuine has been offered. They have been bombed 24/7 by Putin since Feb 2022 with no let up, no ceasefire, nothing.

Like many of his shams, Putin opened fake negotiations in the first week of the war (after promising the week before not to invade Ukraine). He did so to give the false appearance to that Russia was "looking for peace", obviously absurd considering they were the ones doing the invading, but it fooled some people. Likewise when Ukraine eventually rejected the fake talks, Putin could project that Ukraine "didn't want peace"

Putin's supporters lap all this stuff up and bake it into their revisionism of the war to endlessly shift blame away from Putin onto Ukraine/the West - which is their agenda.

Very versatile those North Koreans. Not only have they perfected the art of invisibility but are also grandmasters of deep sea cable cutting now.

It was a decree, declaring negotiations with Putin an impossibility (but not with other Russia leadership) and talks weren't ruled out.

Unsurprising considering Putin has broken treaties multiple times, annexed, proxy invaded, and full-scale invaded the country.

No one trusts him, least of all Ukraine to actually negotiate. Hence it's suspected it will be foreign led, e.g. by Turkey to broker some sort of temporary something down the line (a freeze in lines, ceasefire, etc)

@Sand you wrote on 15th November 11:35pm here

“And yet it’s zionists who are engaged in conquest and genocide, the Muslims are just trying to live within their land”

Yet funnily in this thread you can’t apply same logic when Russians don’t even bother any more pretending that they are not waging a genocidal war of conquest

Let me rephrase that replacing just two words

”And yet it’s Russians who are engaged in conquest and genocide, the Ukrainians are just trying to live within their land”

What do you have to say to this strange concept ^ it’s your own sentence with just two words replaced

Looks like critics of the war are starting to fall out windows again. This man spoke out against the war in Ukraine. Poor fella went out onto the balcony to get some air and smoke, lost his balance and fell down. Hard to believe isn't it!

Russia can make 40-50 KH 101 monthly. That's about 600 a year unfortunately.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/skilki-rosiya-mozhe-viroblyati-raket-x-101-na-misyac-50467375.html

Putin critics likewise.