General Irish politics discussion thread

Or texting kids.

That FG won’t do as well polls to seats suggest is possibly true, given the opposition a lot of that is offset.

The lead opposition have the worse name recognition we’ve ever seen. They remain essentially focused around the same individuals as 2020. Aside from the TDs they have lost already due to one thing or another, many of those elected are empty vessels who never had a big local presence.

Outside of that, neither Labour or the Soc Dems are strong in terms of named candidates either. Each are losing some big hitters themselves, even if at a slightly smaller scale the impact is arguably more pronounced. There is work for them to consolidate before they grow themselves.

Yes independents remain a strong force. And yes (ironically) the Alan Shatter’s and Kate O’Connells of the world will impact them.

But the point on brand recognition is a bit overplayed, it verges into wishful thinking with regards to Fine Gael and their detractors. They are still going to be able to have Harris doing his low intellect energiser bunny stuff around the country and Pascal Donohue there to do the spreadsheet stuff.

Just seen the full candidate list for that Dublin central seat, SF might have a real problem on their hands running two candidates, even if one is MLMD, against the likes of malachy steenson, claire daly and the monk meaning their core vote is going to split all over the place, it is going to be a fascinating fight to watch. I honestly think they've over corrected on their 2020 issues of running too few candidates and may be running too many now.

I suspect Mary Lou will still scrape through in the end. Sinn Fein are still high enough in the polls to get her across the line.

Gary Gannon and Neasa Hourigan have a battle on their hands. Add in an outside chance from Mary Fitzpatrick and it's very difficult to call.

It would be extraordinary if the Monk was elected.

My own prediction is that Hourigan is a goner.

With two SF candidates along with all the other travails for SF; it's hard to see (from outside the SF reality distortion field, anyway) anyone other than Pascal topping the poll.

Shouldn't be running two there. Shouldn't be running two anywhere except Louth and Donegal; or three anywhere.

She got 35% FPV last time. Even halfing thay and saying there's 18% for Mary Lou, at best I think Janice will get 5% of that or so and that will leave Mary with 13%. Pascal got 13.2% FPV the last time. The worst case scenario for SF is that it will be very close, but ML will Just about miss on on first. But I still think that's unlikely. The notion that she will only scrap through is absolutely off the wall.

Michael O'Leary was on the radio just now, and he hit the nail on the head. He said (or words to that effect) SF are best ignored / not worth voting for…that if they cannot run their own party what hope would they have of running the country.

It reminds me…how many "leaders" have SF had in 30 or 40 years / been appointed by the A.C.? The bearded one ( who says he was never in the IRA, but nobody believes him - if he told me it was raining outside I'd look out the window) and MLMD.

Did better in the second half of the interview, but poor start.

A valid-counter argument to that (your assertion that we could not run the country this past 100 years) is that we should do as Gay Byrne suggested back about 25 or 30 years ago, that we should hand the country back to the Queen with a note of apology.

Bad and all as this country is, it is a lot better than most countries around the world. We are lucky we are English speaking, a member of the EU, and are a very successful tax haven for the likes of Apple to bring their world wide profits to. Plus we can, as throughout the last century. shelter behind the UK, US etc and not have to spend anything much on our own navy, air force, army.

Like O'Leary on not, he is spot on with his analysis. Even some teachers I know agree with him. O'Leary the accountant has grown Ryanair to be the biggest airline in Europe. ( Quote : With its number of passengers soaring to almost 182 million in 2023, Ryanair is the hands-down biggest airline in Europe. . The airline has seen a steady growth in recent years, expanding 13% since 2022, and this trend will likely continue thanks to the carrier's investments in 300 new Boeing aircraft. )

What has the hopeful SF minister for finance ever achieved - except for dropping out of 2 college courses, the last one in Letterkenny?

I said it was a valid counter-argument, not that I agreed with it.

To be clear - I am a big fan of this country, but I would like for the government to do more. And Michael O'Leary is a tool, and whether or not he is successful in business is no measure of whether he would be good in government.