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Cork South Central - General Election 2024

  • 31-10-2024 10:43AM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭


    Hey all,

    With the General Election on it's way, how do people see South Central going?

    The last election results looked like this:

    CSC.png

    According to Adrian Kavanagh's website, the following people have been nominated so far:

    Deputy Micheál Martin (Fianna Fáil), Deputy Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire (Sinn Féin), Senator Jerry Buttimer (Fine Gael), Cllr. Séamus McGrath (Fianna Fáil), Cllr. Úna McCarthy (Fine Gael), Cllr. Shane O’Callaghan (Fine Gael), Cllr. Laura Harmon (Labour Party), Cllr. Pádraig Rice (Social Democrats), Mick Finn (Independent), Anna Daly (Aontú), Monica Oikeh (Green Party), Michelle Cowhey Shahid (Sinn Féin), Shane Laird (People Before Profit), Margaret Kenneally (Fianna Fáil), Veronica Houlihan (Independent Ireland), Ted Neville (Independent/National Alliance)

    The constituency is increasing from 4 to 5 seats, and is taking in territory from Cork North Central. As per the Examiner's website, the main changes are:

    In Cork South-Central, there have been 12 electoral districts moved into the constituency from Cork North-Central. With the commission considering the River Lee was a natural boundary between the two constituencies, these areas are being transferred into Cork South-Central. This includes Bishopstown, increasing the population of the constituency by 22,000.

    There will likely be a few more people nominated once the election is called, but we will be looking at, at least, 3 new TDs for South Central.

    At this moment in time before the campaign kicks off, I have to imagine that Micheál Martin, Séamus McGrath and Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire will get elected, along with 1 FG seat. The last seat then I see as being a toss-up between the soft left (Labour, Soc Dems, Greens) or a 2nd FG seat. But we'll have to wait and see…



«134

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭Pen Rua


    The new Soc Dems Cllr, Padraig Rice, is quite active and has nabbed a number of Echo headlines. There also seems to be heady ad buys on his / Soc Dems end on Instagram etc. He came in third in the local elections, so that will be curious.

    The list seems to have a lot of current TDs, Senators & Cllrs. Surely they will have a step up over the newbie candidates as one would assume they would have a degree of name recognition the others wouldn't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 923 ✭✭✭DylanQuestion


    Good to see Bishopstown, Glasheen and the Mardyke back in South Central. I see too the City Centre has moved to South Central as well. I wonder if there is scope for there to be just a Cork City area, like Limerick City



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,935 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Martin and McGrath are certainties.

    O'Laoghaire should also be safe bar an utter collapse by SF - they even gave him a running mate that is zero threat to him whatsoever (she polled 11th in the locals, behind another SF candidate).

    I suspect that Shane O'Callaghan will get a seat for FG. Buttimer will be glad to have gotten his Bishopstown heartland back but he may be yesterday's man.

    The 5th seat is where things get interesting. Doesn't look like there is any strong Independent candidate who could threaten to win a seat. With FF/FG already having 3 seats locked up it's difficult to see them having enough left over to win a fourth seat. On that basis I think it'll be between Rice and Harmon since the centre-left lane is wide open (and Oikeh shouldn't offer any real threat)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,075 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Mick Finn has done ok in the past so maybe he might have a shot (he came 6th in 2016)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Mr.CoolGuy


    I'm not talking to any canvassers until the manifestos come out. I think it's pointless without them as they'll just agree with everything you say otherwise.

    How many lines do you expect Cork to get on them from the main parties? I'm thinking 2 to 3.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 923 ✭✭✭DylanQuestion


    Don’t you know we are in the middle of getting a Luas and Event Centre AND a motorway to the port! We shouldn’t be so greedy to expect more than 2 lines!


    (Sarcasm)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Mr.CoolGuy


    And it will all only take about 50 years from start to finish!

    Interesting to see there's no nutjobs on the ballot yet. There weren't many running in the locals either relative to other areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭corkie


    The below are the confirmed candidates for the upcoming general election in alphabetical order (Last updated 30th October)

    • Jerry Buttimer, Fine Gael
    • Michelle Cowhey Shahid, Sinn Fein
    • Anna Daly, Aontu
    • Graham De Barra, Independent
    • Paudie Dineen, Independent
    • Mick Finn, Independent
    • Laura Harmon, Labour
    • Veronica Houlihan, Independent Ireland
    • Margaret Kenneally, Fianna Fail
    • Shane Laird, People Before Profit
    • Micheál Martin, Fianna Fail
    • Úna McCarthy, Fine Gael
    • Séamus McGrath, Fianna Fail
    • Monica Oikeh, Green Party
    • Shane O’Callaghan, Fine Gael
    • Donnchadh Ó’Laoghaire, Sinn Fein
    • Ted Neville, Independent/National Alliance
    • Pádraig Rice, Social Democrats

    Source thanks to this tweet!

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 165 ✭✭Corkladddd!!


    Could we get the positions of the above on some of the key issues in Cork?

    I'd like to know where they all stand on some of the more ambitious plans for infrastructure and their plans to influence/drive these to closure/success.

    Project

    Name - Position (For/Against) - Proof - Action Plan

    E.G.

    M28

    Jerry Buttimer - Against - Support of M28 Steering Group - No clear current action

    Some of the key items at a local level I think they all should have a position on are…

    M28, Dunkettle Interchange, North Ring Road, Elective Hospital, Cork Luas, Busconnects, Cork Sports Infrastructure, Public Housing………….Events Centre

    As a constituency despite having 3 of the top politicians in Ireland in MM, MMcG and SC we've had very little actually delivered bar false dawns and promises.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Should national level TDs be delivering local level items like that though?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭Pen Rua


    No harm firing off emails to each candidate asking them, albeit I'm not sure how likely a response would be given they're going to be out & about for the next three weeks…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 923 ✭✭✭DylanQuestion


    I emailed Pádraig Rice at 10pm last night about Bus Connects and he responded within 20 minutes


    I wouldn’t vote for Jerry Buttimer if he was the only one running



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I reckon Pádraig Rice is in with a decent shout of the 5th seat. Buttimer on the other hand, I'd be hoping a distant 3rd for him amongst the 3 blueshirts…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭Pen Rua


    Yes, credit where credit is due to Cllr Rice here. I mentioned an issue in our area during the Locals, followed up an email soon after he was elected and he's been on to me several times since, and often shares updates (without me chasing him etc).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 165 ✭✭Corkladddd!!


    I'd tend to agree with you and was trying to stick to Cork based national projects if you get my meaning, all of the above are to be implemented by national bodies or state agencies rather than local issues. I tend to put a red mark against people campaigning on local council issues (planning, roads, car parking etc.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,014 ✭✭✭Infoseeker1975


    Before the recent local elections I did not know who Cllr Rice was. I emailed Shane O Callaghan about a local issue & put a reasonable amount of time into it, did not even get a PFO.

    On the other hand, I contacted Cllr Rice & got an immediate reply; I do not mind if he disagrees, etc though he did not, he was very proactive.

    For 20yrs+ I have believed that certain aspects of the country should be handled outside of politics given the short term nature of their time in office; my current approach is who is most active and beneficial on a local level & engaged with the local community. For those reasons I will vote for Cllr Rice even if I only heard of him a few months ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,109 ✭✭✭Dbu


    Was out for a walk early yesterday and saw that Cllr Rice had put up posters inside Maryborough Woods estate. Thought this wasnt allowed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭dulpit




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 923 ✭✭✭DylanQuestion


    I thought there were rules on posting in parks. Shane O’Callaghan put some up in Broadale and people got them removed. Even if it isn’t an official rule, it’s not a good look

    However, Maryborough Woods Road (the main road connecting Maryborough Hill to Carrigaline Road) I think is fair game. It’s like the main Mount Oval road. They’re not cul de sacs and so are no different than say Pearse Road



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I don't think there are rules, but some areas have requested no posters. I think Cobh has that, Passage West definitely has a request in for no posters.

    I don't mind where they go (as long as they are not blocking anything and come down quickly and tidyily) - it's only 3 weeks like.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭corkie


    Anyone into placing bets?

    Here are the odds in a follow up post. (for those not active): -

    image.png

    Note: Lorna Bogue, Rabharta was also added to list, not shared in a previous post.

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Betting odds in 1 specific constituency can be swayed by a very small bet. I wouldn't read too much into them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭corkie


    Thanks @dulpit and it is too early in the process for these. Might be interesting to compare after the 29th.

    Unfortunately the top 2 are probably guaranteed. I like Cllr Padraig Rice as others have mentioned, voted for him in the LE.

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,935 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Everything that I have read and heard seems to indicate that O'Callaghan will be the FG favourite and not Buttimer as those odds indicate.

    I don't think there are 2 FG seats there. Last time out Buttimer was miles off the last seat.

    Surprised by the Mick Finn odds too. I understand that Independents are doing well in the polls but that doesn't necessarily mean that whatever independent is in the running will be getting elected. He topped the poll in his LEA a couple of times so could obviously pull quite a few votes there but I'm not sure how much support he'd get from the rest of city areas or the county parts of the constituency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    I think Mick Finn is well known in his LEA but not outside of it, so that'll be a struggle for him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭Pen Rua


    Douglas St seems to be relatively void of posters (save for one Labour one up by Novecento), which is nice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,935 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Is it just me or have there been a lot more gardai visible on the streets of the city centre in recent weeks? I'm wondering is it anything to do with the election (not officially of course)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,014 ✭✭✭Infoseeker1975


    Have no interest in political parties, more interest in candidates focused on their local community, having never heard of Cllr Rice up to a few months ago, really impressed with him and will get my vote & anyone else's vote that I can convince:)

    Seamus McGrath also really good on local community issues.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    All I'll say is that you need to be aware that while yes, you are voting for a local rep, you need to be aware that a vote for party X is essentially a vote for that party's policies at a national level.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,153 ✭✭✭Pauliedragon


    There has been a lot more visibility for a couple of months now I've noticed. Could be an election trick who knows



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