Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

It is difficult to say the remarks were unjustified, even if they were undiplomatic. NATO countries letting the US shoulder the military load for them has been a pain point in the US for years, Trump was the first President to be as publicly direct about it.

Apart from his abject nonsensical story about a country leader approaching him and asking him "Sir pretty please protect us if we don't pay up". The problem is that the 2% spending is not a mandatory minimum. It's a guideline.

Nato Guideline

He's equating NATO, as evident from his statement, to a Mafia racket. Where if you don't pay the boss you don't get protection.

Trump's statements on NATO countries is the same populist, grievance filled, isolationist nonsense he's always peddled. Like the way he moans about Zelensky fleecing the US public for 60 billion every time he visits.

He's not some genius who saw the threat in Russia and the problem of countries underspending on defence. It's crowd baiting and nothing more.

A European nation being invaded by Russia is a risk to European security. Then there's the ensuing genocide that would follow if he's allowed to keep what he wants. We also know for a fact that there are other territories that he wants. So leaving him off, that can very well affect prosperity and security at a global level.

Also worth remembering that we handled Putin like that for two decades. Nothing was done when he assassinated Litvinenko in the UK, same for Skripal. That's ignoring the scale of election interference across the globe. The fake peace you want will result in them further testing limits as they have done for decades.

I agree, Putin should withdraw and end the war.

Let’s be clear about one thing, the people who are now anti war all of a sudden are just anti standing up to Putin.

Feel genuinely sorry for Zelensky. US in limbo because of election. France and Germany too far too west to really care about Ukraine. Baltic states and Poland care but not rich enough. Slovakia, Hungary and Austria rather pro- Putin these days. Too many Europeans don’t care. So not enough pressure politically. Feels currently like Ukraine slowly but surely losing the war in incremental losses.

Listen we could get into how European militaries have allowed themselves to depend on the US and let their armies fall into disrepair and I don't disagree with this(and honestly it seems to be your thing so I don't have the depth of knowledge on it nor do I care to) but it's aside from the original point I was responding to.

Which is that Biden is making nonsensical statements about not getting the US involved as some sort of doddery moron and Trump is the savvy warhawk calling out European military atrophy.

He's not. So if that's the not the angle you were getting at and your point amounts to:

Even if a stopped clock is only right twice a day, when it's right, it's still right.

Moronic demented windbag makes sense on an issue for the first time in years for all the wrong reasons. You won't find much opposition from me.

Ukraine summit postponed, not hugely significant but still symptomatic of the waning interest and the sense that if trump gets in Ukraine is probably f*cked big time either way...

I read recently that the US had been negotiating with Japan and South Korea about making ship for the US navy as US contractors were costing too much. These ships can't be built outside the US because of the Jones Act, so the Japanese and Koreans weren't really interesting in having to deal with the existing labour costs and pork barrel bloat culture of US defense contracts.

It's mad to think though that the US needed to consult their former enemy to replenish their navel fleet.

Trump could cut off NATO spending and still have to deal with these cost issues. There's lots of shades of "Leave the EU and give the money to the NHS" about Trump and NATO.

Anyhow interestingly today my youtube feed seems to have had a dump of very negative spins of Ukraines prospects, so we must be close to a Russian implosion.

It is all linked in a way, I think. (May be) harder to justify more drafts (or even encourage people to sign up for military service) when there is no proper plan here (as far as I can see?) from Ukraine's allies.

Most of them (the key wealthy supporters anyway, US, Western Europeans) want to go on helping Ukraine at the current level (no more, no matter how the war changes) and have it all be mostly painless for them.

There is no will to really put the screws onto the Russian economy (that will hurt us and our companies too), weapons supplies are fairly slow (military production for a war costs money, think of the budget and what else we want to spend it on), and they shackle Ukraine's military regarding how they may fight Russia with the weapons they supply (Putin could hold us responsible and escalate [in some way], the war could come to us).

Good sound effects in Krasnodar

Drones away!

Goodness… Ukraine's fate got sealed with Euromaidan. Putin's regime can't afford a democratic Ukraine right next door - might give Russians ideas… Same principle for CCP & Taiwan… Consider this: what if there had been no Corona virus?… What if in 2020 February there had been no pandemic and instead Russia had invaded Ukraine? Keep this in mind: Trump.

Really good summation of why those calling for a "negotiated peace" are morons:

https://www.readthedetox.com/p/a-peace-deal-in-ukraine-is-not-going

The TLDR version: even if Zelensky's government were to concede the currently occupied territory to Russia via a "negotiated settlement" (which is itself unlikely due to the lack of the West's appetite to provide iron-clad security guarantees) and stand idly by while Putin's henchmen continue their genocide in those territories, not only will Russia just use this farcical "peace" to re-build it's shattered military before invading the rest: the Ukrainian people themselves won't stand for it.

Based on polling of support for the resistance to Russian occupation (whether with, or without, foreign support) it's clear that Zelensky's govt would fall in the aftermath of such a decision and to an opposition determined to fight on. Even in the absence of political leadership, a significant cohort of the Ukrainian population (circa 10%, rising to 15% of active duty military) claim they'd continue armed resistance if they disagreed with the terms of such a surrender (which is, rightly, how they'd see such a treaty).

The West can either give Ukraine everything it needs to win this war, or it can watch on as it continues for decades. If the US and EU decide to abandon Ukraine to this fate, they won't like the consequences of those actions either: the admirable restraint being shown by the Ukrainian military to date would evaporate overnight.

To highlight what has been commented for a long time now:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/09/russias-army-recruits-are-increasingly-older-less-capable-men-vyorstka-a86622

"The Russian military is seeing an influx of older contract soldiers who are largely seen as detrimental to its war effort in Ukraine, the investigative news outlet Vyorstka reported Wednesday, citing anonymous military and parliamentary sources.

Volunteer fighters aged 45 and over now make up half of new recruits in Moscow, a senior Mayor’s Office source was cited as saying. The average age of recruits has risen from 40 at the start of the year to about 50, said another Moscow Mayor’s Office source.

“They’re all sick,” a Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine was quoted as saying of these troops. “Their legs hurt, their heads hurt, and they’re slow.”

Strikes me that Putin couldn't care less… keep pumping the criminals and old men into the frontlines and gradually wear down the Ukrainian defences seems to be his game plan. A callous view that nobody will cry too hard for the deaths of that cohort, as opposed to young and urban Russians. His view of measuring success (don't laugh!) is that, at the end of the day its the position of the front lines and territory gained that matters, not how it was achieved. He seems to view Russian lives the same way other people view money.

To think that the US and Europeans are sitting on the solution to how to defeat him is infuriating.