Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Unsustainable is the key characteristic of a bubble

Bubble and bubble bursting (ala 2008) are 2 different phases of the process

Hmm maybe so, but what we're seeing today is rather unique. When in history was any country increasing its population by 1-2% per year whilst using a currency that can essentially be "printed" without limit? I just think that we shouldn't presume what will happen.

The more salubrious parts of London probably provide the best guide for where Dublin will go. It followed the exact same playbook of extremely high immigration and population growth, with limits on housing construction at the same time, that we're now following. Just about 20 years ahead of us.

Expect the working and middle classes to be completely priced out of the market unless they're living in absolute dumps or in roomshares, or doomed to commute in from very far distances from exurbs for work.

With all the negative effects that will have on local businesses and services for even people who already own property locally too - good luck getting young teachers or gardai to work locally who can't afford to rent anywhere within sane commuting distance.

There was definitely economists pointing the possiblilty of a bubble back then.

David McWilliams did a series of documentaries at the time for BBC stating as such.

See below link:

https://inquiries.oireachtas.ie/banking/hearings/david-mcwilliams-early-warnings-divergent-contrarian-views/

Indeed. I think the USA also serves as an example of what will happen, including all of the race politics that will be unavoidable in a heterogenous society. Good times ahead. We may even get our own version of Trump or a hack like Farage will resolve absolutely nothing but pacify native discontent.

Hmm, some did call it before 2007, but I'm reminded of the appalling words of a former Taoiseach advising such people to self-delete. I do agree however that hindsight will be 20/20 as ever. Good old McWilliams probably already has a book in draft to publish if and when we have another disaster to tell us all how we were screwed and how he called it out.

I mean it wouldn't take much to burst that bubble. We are so dependent on few big companies on our corporation that if 1 or 2 of these were to leave Ireland, it would be a double whammy: loss of high paid jobs and a nice chunk of the State budget gone.

I know some people think it is unlikely to happen because these companies have invested so much in the country and they have qualified workforce here. However, these companies wouldn't have any remorse to leave the country if they can save money by moving somewhere else. Workforce will follow like they did in Ireland.

I think currently the housing crisis can stay for another 10 years because most people are homeowners and right now, they can still upgrade or downgrade. It is mainly for first time buyers that it is becoming difficult. Once the population age more and the cohort of wannabe first time owners get bigger and more homeowners see many of their closed ones impacted that things would change.

Which one will happen first? who knows.

Yeah, I also think it is not likely to pop in the next year or two unless the US economy blew up which would hit the few corporate tax behemoths. Betting against the Irish housing market or trying to time it is like trying to time the potential blow up to the Irish corporate tax revenue. In terms of the potential fallout and how much it could fall; people saying the Celtic Tiger was a mad time and yet house prices are above Celtic Tiger levels (while wages have climbed up no where near as high and leverage is much lower) shows that it could be a significant plunge once it gets going. At the same time it is difficult to see how the government could put any backstop in place should it start to unwind given the grotesque money they throw at the market in the good times.

Crazy to see the budget announcement today with more spending, especially with rental tax credits of €1000 available in a year. The government is spending like a drunken sailor and it is a bit scary to watch when that drunken sailor is supposed to be at sea planning for long-term investment and even the potential for having to reduce spending in the near future. That being said, the electorate seem to be happy to see them spend like there is no tomorrow; "we all partied".

What makes you think the long term plan is to move them out of the hotels?

We now get around 25k asylum seekers per year, so those that are in the hotels and are given refugee status will move to housing, but their hotel space will very quickly be taken up with a new refugee.

We dont have an alternative to hosting 25k new asylum seekers every year, without using hotels.

Oops it makes me feel better instantly

Isn't it a common trend to go against what people would vote for?

What other housing capacity do we have available today to accommodate 25k new applicants every year, in addition to those already here?

How does the govt benefit from the AS being housed in hotels?

Those camps do not exist today. So even if they were legal, they are irrelevant because they dont exist.

What does exist today is the govts responsibility to house the Asylum Seekers and hotels are part of that equation.

I am not saying thats the best solution by the way, but i dont see another option currently.

The govt are bringing onstream accommodation camps. Thornton Hall is due to be open soon, but i believe the capacity is only 1000, which would fill up with new arrivals in less than 3 weeks and so wont make an impact.

It's hard to see a solution. I believe the 6 state owned camps that the govt will eventually bring onstream only accommodate about 2500. Open to correction on that capacity.

If it is only 2500, given that the govt planned for only 20k asylum seekers this year but we are likley to see 25k arrive, those 2500 beds still leave 22,500 applicants requiring accommodation. Which is more than the 20k arrivals we planned for in the first place...

Hence my first point, its hotel accommodation for a while yet folks.