General Irish politics discussion thread

Meh. Taoisigh always deny that they are going for an election until they go for an election. This is bog-standard behaviour which is already priced in to everyone's expectation of how a Taoiseach will behave. I don't think there's any reputational impact when a Taoiseach "changes his mind" and calls an election that he previously indicated he wouldn't call for some more months, as long as the election is not perceived to be premature.

IIRC "no early election" is part of the programme for government agreed between the parties, which isn't normally the case; that perhaps gives the election date a political sensitivity that it doesn't normally have. And of course the current Taoiseach wasn't one of the party leaders who negotiated that programme. All of this may lead to the question being asked a lot more that it has been in the past, and the assertiveness of the Taoiseach on the question may to some extent be an artifact of the fact that the question is being raised more often that it normally is.

I see MLMD is trending yet again for a disaster of an interview on Morning Ireland.

Surely the gig is up for her at this stage. It has been a disastrous 2024 for her and SF.

Not sure how you have your algorithm set up but I am seeing a mixture of comments on her performance + the usual bile from the usual sources.

Disregarding that I doubt the government could possibly run that late; potentially having to count on a bank holiday Monday would not be desirable at all

To be fair, she has been through a lot personally, and it is clear her heart is no longer in the fight. It would be better for her and better for SF if she were to step aside.

other four parties you've listed there would not be willing to have it there

Yes particularly because they would be doing so purely to enlist the support of a single TD whose very presence in government would be a major aggravation for SF, even if he wasn't making any policy demands…

I could see Labour, Soc Dems & Greens acting as a block of votes together depending on the numbers. But adding SF to their numbers is definitely going to fall well short of a majority. And Aontú would be on the opposite side of the political spectrum (and unlikely to get any additional seats beyond Peadar I'd guess?)

I also think that other parties would view them as being there for that single issue too, so it would make them very hard to go into any sort of agreement with.

They would have significant issue aligning to any specific group. Their MEP joined FF's overall European group; some of their other reps (TDs, Cllrs, candidates) would probably have wanted to join the ECR grouping if they had been an MEP!

Boylesports currently the only bookies offering odds on the election date AFAICS, must be genuine uncertainty about it all round…

Like Renua before them, they can deny it all they like but it doesn't change the fact that they only exist because of abortion, and this makes them totally toxic to the majority of voters.

Doesn't help their credibility either that they have no electable candidates not named Toibin.

When in doubt, pick the conspiracy theory solution - there is something going on.

Occam's Razor, the simplest answer is that they have an agreement in place under the Programme for Government that the government will go the five years. Until that agreement changes, they have to stick to that agreement. Therefore, all they will say in public is that the election is next year.

Whatever else is going on or not going on behind the scenes is behind the scenes.

Pat Kenny kept pressing him hard and he kept denying it emphatically. Given that the announcement of an election would have to come soon enough, it does seem difficult to believe he is secretly planning a November poll but just hasn't revealed the decision yet.