Russia-Ukraine War

The fear should be what happens if Ukrainians lose

I think that there is probably a fear in the US intelligence/analysis community about what happens if Russia is defeated in Ukraine. Could Putin hold on to power post a Russian defeat? Or would power fracture and we end up with a bunch of squabbling states, some of which have nuclear weapons? That, to me, seems the most likely reason for the reticence in giving Ukraine the full go ahead.

The US and UK have been putting pressure on EU

The ball and the blame is very much in EU court

FT had a an article titled “The clash over whether to commandeer Russia’s frozen assets” from 3rd of May, can’t post link to unpaywalled version but here are snippets from very long article

ECB and key EU states holding it back

That’s a fairly sick claim, if Europe has more skin in the game perhaps Europe should do more about this war eh?

The result is a fudge to use interest on these assets but even here Hungary holding up things

They worried more about their own assets in Russia which have already been confiscated and sold for most part

Why the hell would Russians trade Donbass etc for 300bn when they spent 600,000 lives and there’s trillions in resources there

So have the US and UK handed over the billions in seized assets to Ukraine yet?

It's very easy singling out the EU for not doing it, but why not question why the US and UK haven't done it yet either?

If it's such a trivial thing, the US and UK should show the EU how it's done instead of putting pressure on the EU. Could it be not as simple as the US and UK make out? Sure the UK are still sitting on the £2.5 billion sale from Chelsea. That was supposed to go to Ukraine but it's still sitting in a UK bank account and that's a seizure from a private individual and not a sovereign country. Should be a piece of cake right?

You are mixing up Oligarchic assets and Russian State assets

Literally oranges vs watermelons

And yes not only US have been transferring these they even passed the laws needed to for this, something not even started in EU

Look I am extremely supportive of EU as an institution but we have to admit they have seriously dropped the ball here

EU has the funds to end this war, funds that doesn’t require spending a cent of European taxpayers money

Which would also send every shithole regime a strong message of what we stand for

Instead EU are praying each time there’s a missile barrage that a nuclear plant is not hit and half of Europe is not rendered uninhabitable for next few thousand years

The key question to ask is why those assets where in Europe in first place

I am sure Putin knew we’ll months in advance he was going to start the war but he still gambled that EU is too weak and greedy to do anything about these assets

And he has proven to be right

Likes of Saudi etc invest in western economies precisely because there is literally nowhere else for them to stash their loot, everywhere else is either corrupt as hell and assets would disappear or don’t have a fraction of the liquidity of markets and laws to protect assets

They can’t keep the wealth at home as how would they keep it there? There’s no amount for example of gold on this planet to store let’s say Saudi oil earnings in

and that’s before we get to all these places not even wanting to keep their own kids and wives in their own country

What the EU and ECB are doing is what we seen go on and on for years during the Euro crisis when Germany was all high and mighty lecturing (including this country) and sneering at everyone for not being as smart about economics as them , in what turned down to be a sham economy powered by Russian gas, selling out tools and tech to China and protected by US military

Until it got to a point when ECB done exactly what was thought as “unthinkable” and everyone just shrugged and moved on and euro was saved and interest rates for likes of Irish debt fell

This “crisis” of not resolved could lead to terrible consequences for Europe, like I said earlier, we should all fear what will happen if Ukraine falls or worse one of Putin’s missiles hits wrong thing

I wouldnt call Germany a sham economy but they do have issues that will drag it down , they have a stupid energy policy (shunning nuclear), and they manage to have a foreign policy that alienates itsself from major markets, not sure how they turn it around but insert cold sniffle analogy for Europe

I am not mixing up state and oligarch assets.

$300 billion in Russian state assets have been frozen.

The US froze $5bil and have given Ukraine zero. Unless you can point me to where they have transferred some of that $5 to Ukraine as I haven't seen any evidence they have.

The UK froze over £8bil and have given Ukraine zero.

I'm asking why both the UK & US are pressuring the EU to hand over Russian seized assets when both the UK and US have handed over zero?

My point about seized oligarch assets was the UK still have not handed over the proceeds of the sale of Chelsea to Ukraine and that's a far easier endeavor as it's personal assets and not sovereign assets.

I mentioned the sale of Chelsea to show that the UK not only haven't handed over Russian frozen sovereign assets, they haven't even handed over oligarch's frozen assets, which they agreed to. Seizing private citizens assets is far easier than state ones, case in point, even in Ireland, we have laws to seize private citizens ill-gotten assets.

Now can you show me where the US have handed over some of that $5bil state assets they seized?

I've no problem with you pointing out the EU should be handing over those seized funds, but I've an issue with you giving the UK & US a free pass.

That'd make a good satirical drawing.

Netherlands and 7 other EU states want to stop Russian diplomats (aka spies) and their families travelling freely across Schengen borders

Germany, Austria and Italy are opposed of course!

Stealing?

Criminal asset forfeiture has plenty of precedent in both national and international laws

Russia started an illegal criminal war, committed war crimes and their president is even wanted at The Hague

Best of luck to them arguing this war of theirs is not criminal in a court

If anything might set an example that causes future Fuhrers from starting stupid wars in Europe if it makes them stop and consider what might happen to their loot

Russia; we will destroy post WW2 world order and peace institutions while spitting on laws like Geneva conventions

Also Russia: bwhaaaaa they breaking the rules!

You are not the only one, I asked earlier if not western countries then where exactly all these third rate places invest? There is literally nowhere else with rule of law, low corruption and the depths of markets available

Russia stole a quarter of another country

If someone breaks into your house robs it clean and then starts squatting in living room, you sure as hell wouldn’t be calling the CAB as “criminals” for seizing the bank assets of that robber/murderer/squarter in your house and giving it to the victim

Or going on about how this would set bad precedent for other criminals not to keep their loot in the bank