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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Your theory works if you have secure housing, not so much if your renting

    The RPZ's incentivise selling up and buying a fresh home that can be rented at current market rates

    The path to ownership is now loaded with taxpayer initiatives through developer grants and waivers on costs and multiple grants for buyers. This deems all new supply as council housing by the back door without the state having any asset and only affordable to a minority. Effectively council housing is only available to the wealthiest.

    The economy has evolved to such an extent that your security of housing not your salary is the key determinant of your quality of life. This is the power that the system has passed onto 1 sector in the economy. It has the power to break us and it will



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Battle lines drawn and the full state apparatus is being gathered to fight any affordable solutions and maintain the bubble whatever the cost



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 310 ✭✭gaming_needs90


    Definite pick up in the Daft ads for Clare this week. I was previously told by an EA in July that they were advising people to wait until September to list houses. Anything has to be better than the dismal summer for houses we have had.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Monaghan tops the table at having the most acute shortage of houses for sale as well:

    Screenshot 2024-08-29 at 16.12.55.png

    Monaghan is at the coal face of the housing shortage, the worst affected county in the country for scarcity in supply of both rental and sales stock.

    That is a surprising discovery, though I doubt there will be lobbying calls to prioritise new builds in Monaghan!

    Obviously 12.2 houses for sale per 10,000 is chronically low, but unfortunately they don't offer an opinion on what level per 10,000 would be acceptable.

    Given Leitrim is at 42.9 per 10,000 is it safe to assume at least that it is an acceptable volume for sale?

    https://www.savills.ie/research-and-news/savills-news/365792/which-counties-have-the-highest-and-lowest-number-of-homes-for-sale-and-to-rent-



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I’m not really sure what this has to do with my post. I do wholeheartedly agree with your comment that your housing situation is more important than your salary in terms of your quality of life though.

    All I was saying is. Net wages are up almost 30% in 5 years. If cost of living (excluding housing) had gone up 30%, then peoples remaining income to spend on housing would also go up 30%….in reality cost of living has only gone up 20%….ideally this would improve living standards for people…but for those without permanent housing, their extra income is being soaked by housing costs which have gone up 35-40%.

    The maths seems sensible. House price & rent growth since 2018 are predominantly underpinned by increasing salaries and pushed a bit more by a lower cost of living burden (I agree this is a bad thing by the way. Real wage growth should be spent on fun stuff, innovation, or saving…not ploughed into housing which is just a further wealth transfer to the best off)



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Minister O'Brien seems to be trying to suggest there are security issues over mortgages for Sinn Fein's affordable housing plans. He's worried about who has first charge over the property - is it the bank or the state?

    Surely the exact same concerns could be raised about mortgages on FHS properties.

    I reckon the banks are on much shakier ground with the govt's shared equity scheme than they would be with the proposed SF scheme.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Houses are expensive, but they are not that expensive.

    Single Median income to average house price ratio is approx 7.5

    HTB will give you 10% or up to €30k, so that would bring it down to approx 6.8.

    Not great, but not terrible, considering other parts of the world.

    A dual-income couple on an average salary can easily afford an 'average' house.

    The issue is that there are too few houses on average to buy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    unfortunately many buyers are not dual-income buyers and not everyone is buying new homes to avail of the HTB either - maybe houses are affordable if one is younger getting a 35-40 year mortgage but many FTBs are now getting on in age with smaller mortgage terms and far higher payments it aint cheap out there or easy for many at present



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,144 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    I wonder how many of those 615 properties are just flats above boarded-up shops.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I do recall an interview on primetime with Eoin where he said he was trying to attract pension funds looking for secure stable income closely linked to inflation. Your talking about people at pension age looking for income that tracks inflation. This scheme closely matches that customer requirement so if it were a rental solution maybe you could bypass the banks for funding. Said pension funds were completely put off by the speculative nature of the Irish market.

    FFG are wedded to developers and speculative finance. These people will run rings around FFG and take taxpayers to the cleaners and FFG buddies will be minted in the process.

    FFG's sole skill in this process is creating the illusion that they are the taxpayers and first time buyers friend. Amazingly they are getting away with it while most ftb are shopping in the uninterfered market of used homes.

    This morning it was announced that they are increasing the funding for the first home scheme with the liklihood of more rate cuts in the short term. We could well be entering the phase equivilant to 100% mortgages in the noughties.

    The next election is the last chance to avert another disaster and it will be missed just like the multiple opportunities that have been missed over the last decade



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    7.5 x income certainly looks terrible compared to apparently 4.5 x in the US.

    And that figure of 4.5 is triggering some bears to call their market an extreme bubble, saying it has only ever been that high twice in history

    Mad when you think about, in Ireland 4.5 times income is the stuff of SF wet dreams of affordability, in the US it's a red flag of a housing bubble!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭DataDude


    This is a very poor use of ‘data’ to draw a really poor conclusion!

    The Irish data is individual income to home price ratio. You’re quoting USA household income to home price ratio. And even the basis of that data is questionable. Median US home prices are $420k. Median household US income is c.$70k.

    The official looking graph is posted by the account of a sensationalist lunatic linking to his own website!

    The median US home price to median individual income ratio is at least as high as Ireland (likely a bit higher) AND they have mortgage interest rates almost double ours.

    House purchasing in Ireland is astronomically more affordable than the US, and indeed more affordable than pretty much all first world countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    I was fairly certain that USA house to income ratio is higher than Ireland are you sure your comparing like with like?

    A quick google brought this up



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    @DataDude and @Timing belt fair enough, I stand corrected, should have thought that one through a bit better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Former FG TD and now MEP seems to have a big issue with an open market pricing system used in rent and housing when it's applied to concert tickets

    Its a shame they can't learn from the dangers of handing over the pricing power to a small number of vested interests



  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Crikey, linking Oasis tickets to the property sector, that’s impressive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    it’s like all your posts have become political broadcasts and you’re using the slightest link to properly in order to post….but his takes the biscuit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,985 ✭✭✭growleaves


    It's an "official looking graph" because the man claims the data is sourced from Zillow, the Case Shiller House Price Index and the US census bureau, which claim is either true or untrue.

    It looks correct to me because if you are familiar with this subject you already know the US price-to-income ratio is normally given as multiples of high 3 to 4 something while Ireland is usually multiples of high 7 to 9, in recent years. Look around then internet and read multiple sources if you doubt this.

    The US has had lower house to price income multiples than most countries in the world for a long time (and even now, though QE is causing multiples to escalate) for a specific reason: because the global reserve status of the dollar helps to create a floor underneath domestic US asset prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭DataDude


    The comparison made was poor because it took individual income to price ratios and compared to household. Apples and oranges.

    The guys data is questionable also because two seconds on his Twitter page or website would show him to be a deranged loon.

    Average US home prices are c.$420k. In order for the comparison to Ireland to be true. Median individual income in the US would need to be c.$95k…it’s nowhere close.

    Home price to income ratios between Ireland and USA are very similar but with US having massively higher interest rates. House purchasing is cheaper in Ireland now than USA (by a distance) which wouldn’t have been case historically



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,313 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Not sure of the number there, are they using dual incomes?

    Median US house price is approx $415000

    Average full-time salary is approx $60,000

    House price to salary ratio of 6.9

    The US is made up of many markets, so houses in places like SF, NY, and Boston could be extremely expensive, and places like Houston or Florida, are much more affordable.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    In what way does it take the biscuit. A supply constrained product is exploited to extract the maximum out of consumers. The only difference is that the consumer can say, "no thanks" without a huge impact on their lives like housing. We have 40% of under 35's living with parents and 10k of our nationals possessing skills in high demand escaping to Oz alone on an annual basis

    I'd be the happiest poster if everything related to housing was removed from politicians, there incompetence is unquestionable



  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    .

    Sinn Fein launched their policy document today to address the issue with shortage of supply, if elected, they commit to having Oasis play 20 concerts per year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    are SF going to build any houses with the 39 billion (plus possible interest) of tax payers money they are going to throw at the problem?

    who are these 300,000 alleged houses really being built for ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,221 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    What is really interesting from.those figures is the net cost per house is 130k. Are they going to reintroduce slave labour

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,673 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Have only really read the headlines so far rather than the detail, but at first glance I like the sound of:

    • Immediately end the policy of long-term leasing for social housing delivery.
    • Support the four Dublin Local Authorities to establish a publicly owned building contractor.
    • Reduce the use of private sector rent subsidies to meet social housing need.
    • Sell homes to eligible purchasers at prices between €250,000 and €300,000 depending on size and location
    • Ensure that residential zoning should be made on a use it or lose it basis.
    • Ending the First Home Scheme
    • Phasing out the Help to Buy Scheme

    I definitely don't like the sound of:

    • Introduce a three-year emergency ban on rent increases for all existing and new tenancies.

    Full details on their website



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    there will be plenty of rent increases before xmas so



  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Life is about timing. If we needed a reminder of why a public building company would be an expensive disaster, it comes in the form of a 300k plus bike shed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,081 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Maybe but I dont think SF or Mary Lou will be in government after the November election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Was it a public or private company that built it?

    The most competent at delivering public infrastructure are the Spanish and Italians who employ the expertise that ensure the taxpayer is not over a barrel



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  • Posts: 14,708 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The OPW oversaw it, there is likely to be some questions asked at committee level so we will get more info in time. But it doesn’t matter whether it was a private/public workers, it shows how costly it is when the State undertakes building projects, either there is no oversight on costs if it is a public company, or the State gets ridden by private companies.

    And you think the Government should plan to spend billions on building houses? The contractors, both private and those employed in a public company will be bringing their wheelbarrows to carry the money away. And like BAM did, they will just tell the Government to like it or lump it if they aren’t happy, the next contractor in will charge even more to finish the job because they will know they hold the cards.



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