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General Irish politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,838 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    So, Nov GE highly likely? No Govn't will have multiple byelections.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    They don't need to have any byelections, I think the TDs gone to Europe only had to resign as of the EU term starting, so they have til middle of Jan to move the writs for the byelections, so a Feb election would still be fine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Ivan Yeats reckons it'll be Nov 15th.

    All of the parties appear to be trying to have their final selections done by the end of September

    Bit of a disaster for us political junkies since it'll be on right around the same time as the American election. Ah well. At least the UK election wasn't on at the same time as well!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,838 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Joe Carey has announced he won't be contesting the next GE, but is not resigning now, is that correct?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,678 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I think we'll be seeing a lot of this sort of thing.

    Female candidate added to ticket.

    I've actually never heard of her myself she has her own wiki page and seems to have worked for a lot of different organisations as a journalist. I wonder does this count as a celebrity candidate.

    image.png

    FF didn't even win a seat at the last election so interesting that they're running 2 candidates this time out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,865 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Definitely a celebrity candidate. They must be trying to overtake FG as the celeb candidate party!

    In Kildare North, FF selected the sitting TD and also "selected pending approval" another male candidate, who is clearly not going to be let run and they'll add a female second at some point - probably their Naas councillor.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    One suspects several parties will try and game the quota system in such a manner. Which, to be fair, I don't really blame them for. Realpolitik will realpolitik.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,838 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Nothing wrong with celebrity candidates. They run the full range, from Vladimir Zeleemsky to Donald Trump. Picking the right ones is the point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,517 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    If you've never heard of her, it's kind of hard to argue that she's a "celebrity candidate".



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,336 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    Derek Blighe is trying to get all the nationalist parties to agree to only run the most popular candidate in each constituency

    Will it get a few of them over the line if they come to agreement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,517 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There's a slew of tiny fascist/nationalist parties for a reason; they're not very good at agreeing things.

    Plus, it shouldn't make that much difference; in a PR system the fascist/nationalist vote, initially split between several equally revolting candidates, will accrue to the least unpopular candidate as the more unpopular ones are eliminated. If there's a fascist/nationalist quota, then a fascist/nationalist candidate will be elected, regardless of how many fascist/nationalist candidates run.

    Tl;dr: If people who give their no. 1 preference to some other fascist/nationalist candidate weren't prepared to give their no. 2 preference to Blighe, then they won't give their no. 1 preference to Blighe even if he is the only fascist/nationalist candidate on the ballot.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Will it get a few of them over the line if they come to agreement.

    Seems unlikely tbh - maybe one if they're incredibly lucky. It's hard to overstate just how poor their vote share is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,865 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Won't be enough. There's very, very few cases where they lost a council seat due to the fragmentation; because of transfers.

    It also won't work at a fundamental level. Irexit party selected someone in one of the Dublin constituencies this week and within minutes his son had declared himself as an independent candidate for the constituency. If one party can't agree one candidate; multiple can't.

    Many constituencies where they have any level of support already have multiple declared candidates, likely fundraising already too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Well the reason I was unsure is because I'm from the other end of the country. She might be well known in Louth and if so then I think that would count since that's going to be the entire electorate for this election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The problem here is that Derek Blighe assumes that he'll get the nod for his own constituency. So in other words he's trying to engineer a system that maximises his own chances while eliminating those of his rivals.

    If the shoe were on the othe foot then he would be unlikely to step aside.

    Well that's how all of those other candidates feel too. That's why this is doomed to fail.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,517 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I don't know that it's all that meaningful to use the term "celebrity candidate" for a candidate who has a profile in the community where they will be standing. Having some kind of a profile locally is pretty much a prerequisite for getting elected, especially under PRSTV where you are competing with other candidates from the same party, and therefore can't rely on voters' party loyalty or policy preferences to distinguish you. The major political parties have always looked for candidates with an existing profile, and indeed they will make a point of looking for candidates who have recognition in different parts of the constituency. This has long been a bread-and-butter aspect of Irish electoral politics.

    I think the term "celebrity candidate" is only meaning ful when applied to someone who is an actual celebrity, as opposed to a name constituents would recognise, and where their fame is largely or wholly unrelated to politics, administration or public affairs. Dana, for example, was a celebrity candidate, as was Lord Henry Mouncharles. You probably could have called Dick Spring a celebrity candidate too, had his family connection to politics not exceeded his sporting fame.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Very unlikely in a General, their best bet was the locals and they just squeeked 2-3 in. Boylan had recognition which explained his popularity for Europe, but in a General they will meet the uncomfortable truth they don't like to mention which is the vast majority of their "supporters" ie those out messing in coolock etc don't actually vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I'd counter that argument by saying that the whole point of a celebrity candidate is to surmount the first and largest hurdle any new candidate has - which is name recognition. A celebrity candidate just has to be a known quantity to low information voters in the constituency. If this lady is known to the people of Louth then she's a celebrity candidate in the way that some local councillor, who might only be known within their LEA or to political anoraks, is not.

    If I had heard of her then she'd definitely qualify. Since I haven't though I can't rule out that she isn't well known up there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    not the party of 50 years ago fair enough, but doesn’t seem much different to the sf of 10 or 15 years ago to me….



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,865 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Don't think many will miss him inside the party even.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,517 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    If SF were the party of 50 years ago, they wouldn't be getting 20%+ in the polls.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,678 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Imagine where we'd be if any party was still like they were 50 years ago? 1975 ish? No thanks. Good to see SF resisting the calls to turn to the right from within even if he is only a councillor.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Interesting that that guy is choosing to leave now when it seems the party has been lurching toward the right on immigration. Not enough for him I guess.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,838 ✭✭✭✭Water John




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,678 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not sure this lad went because he fancies going back to conflict/war. SF are on the same trajectory as the established parties. The folk who killed and fought for their beliefs and even carried munitions into the Dáil eventually disappeared out of FF and FG etc as normality returned. Same thing has been happening in SF.
    Not sure what you were expecting to happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,956 ✭✭✭pureza


    I simply don't get this comparing stuff that went on in the 1920's with the 2020's

    A 100 years ago,what next,lauding the fact we don't burn witches anymore ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,678 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I simply don't get how people are so insular and myopic that they cannot look around them and see that this is what happens in 99.9% of post conflict/war societies. Once democracy is embraced political parties move on and evolve, just as the men and women of the civil war parties moved on and evolved.

    Seems some people would rather hold on to paranoia and scaremongering(I'd wager for their own party political ends) in order to take cheap potshots.

    Truth is, this 'lad' did not leave because he wants a return to a war/conflict footing but because his former party won't turn far enough right for him on entirely separate issues.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,956 ✭✭✭pureza


    Where are the posts about paranoia and scaremongering? All I see are observations

    I actually get what happened in the North

    What I don't get is comparing it to something a 100 years or more ago,a time with no mass media,no votes for women under 30 and several other standards different to today

    It was also obviously a much more widely,almost universally supported campaign of independence/civil war meaning everyone had connections to or knew someone involved

    It created a free country ,albeit with a bit missing

    The NI war had none of that and didn't create a free country

    Not to mention,vicims and immediate families including Gardaì (Guardians of the peace) are still alive having to watch commemorations by SF people

    This is the chief reason now why FF and FG will avoid SF if elected numbers mean they can and isn't it time SF changed that by revisiting how they commemorate,it didn'matter before as they'd no hope of government,it does now and heavens they've pirrouetted on every other aspect of their being



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Augme


    The level of corruption and financial mismanagement that FFG have overseen has been quite shocking. It just doesn't stop.



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