Russia-Ukraine War

Here are them Chechens robbing shops in Kursk and getting caught on camera

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianCircus/s/MDPBxGU4WD

No surprises here

Hmm just a daft thought but ain’t Putin using doubles so liberally has great potential to backfire if that double is captured or dies (last leader of 💩 hole country of Iran to visited Azerbaijan crashed into a mountain)

Then the real Putin ends up in a situation where he has to explain to his people that no it’s all lies he is the real Putin 😃

Hey Budanov if you reading there’s an inception of an idea for you there

Seems appropriate about now

If russia get an off ramp in land seized in Ukraine. Then Putin will have considered the 500k dead russians and all the dead ukrainians and all the cities destroyed in Ukraine as worth it. He'll have his kremlin teach the future children of the Russian empire that it pays to give two fingers to all forms of civility and what we in the west consider abhorant in life that disregard all that and do whatever it takes for the fatherland.

To end all that. All those fatherland songs must stop being promoted and all talk of going back to Berlin and all talk of greatness must end. The kremlin will need be humble. That won't happen if they gain ground. It'll embolden the suits in the Kremlin to get those children birthrates up, ratchet up the nationalism and keep those ww2 songs being sung, keep the pressure on the west with their online winding up of west born activists. It'll be gearing up a second and a third crack again at expanding the empire.

The only way this truly stops is the whole Kremlin are rooted out and finished. But they can not be finished by anyone only their own people.

If there's a positive. It's that Putin is increasingly getting paranoid for his own safety and is surrounding himself with an increasingly smaller and smaller cohort of people in positions he can trust. So the circle to take out is getting smaller and smaller. This is for the russian people.

Don’t be wary of a desperate Russia.

They are bluffing.

Now more than ever we need our Western leaders to step up and give Ukraine whatever it needs to finish Putin and his cronies off.

There is a small window of opportunity with what Ukraine has so bravely achieved on Kursk, please don’t let it pass as nothing.

The tide is turning but the West needs to really take it over the line. Our leaders need to step up.

Speaking of leaders. Macron proving to be useless after all his talk.

The west seems to be stepping back, lot of this push in to Kursk may be as much about trying to shore up fading eastern support as much as any other reason .

The Russians choose to engage in an unnessisary war of annihilation against its neighbour in a desperate gambit to prevent it from choosing to leave their sphere of influence. The driving factor of the war is essentially a single man and his cohort power-brokers in Russia who likely realise that time and the creep of transparent democracy around their borders is putting their own power at severe risk.

The “off-ramp” for the Russian Federation is for them to withdraw fully from Ukraine’s international borders and seek a method to reintegrate with the wider world. That’s likely going to involve reparations to Ukraine and the surrender of war criminals to the ICC, including Putin.

How, might I ask, would you pander to the Russians, egos? Give them Donbas? We’ve discussed this adnausium here, but since you’re new it’s forgivable, but ceeding any land to the Russians will simply embolden them. Also, any treaty signed on the basis of such a deal would not be worth the paper it is written on. The current war is in direct violation of a treaty Ukraine signed to give up their ex-Soviet nuclear weapons, Russia were to guarantee Ukrainian sovereignty. Loe and behold we’re here in a situation where the Russians are years into ignoring their previous promise, and any subsequent promise is likely doomed.

Russia needs to be defeated on the battlefield and in the State’s pocketbook. The Russians must be forced into a position where they cannot wage war and have no choice but to respect Ukraine’s borders. Trying to appease them belongs to the mindset that misled Chamberlain when he went and claimed “Peace in our time”. We all know who well that went.

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin has an incident with a faulty balconyor bridge any time soon.

His cabal of 'yes men' can only do so much to protect him from the consequence of how much damage he has done to Russia.

Russia is still dealing with the damage World War 1 did to its Demographics, never mind World War 2. This conflict is just further adding to those woes, the idiocy of sending young lads to die in a meat grinder, steals the future from your country.

Then we look at the military equivalent loss, and we have to ask, what does Russia have left? Begging North Korea for the munitions is not a projection of strength.

This War like all war, is an absolute horrid blight on Humanity, however I think it could get worse, not because Putin may/will eventually leave himself no option to use some of his nuclear stock piles (but we have to ask... will they even work?), but this could be the thing that fragments Russia.

Russia has a lot of ethnic tension, the fall out from rhe heavy losses could just fuel the various movements that want to break away from Russia/Moscow to finally do so, as Rissia/Moscow will have decapitated itself.

Then we could see numerous rouge nations spring up, which have nuclear weapons. Which will come with many issues to deal with on the diplomatic stage.

The Russia we know today, has come at the expense of the slow, drawn out death of the old USSR, and I doubt that process is complete. This could be a further part of that process, one which I think will present a bigger worry to contend with.

It wouldnt play out like that.

It would start with a little green man operation in the Baltics... coupled with either a passive / pacifist German government or a Le Pen presidency in France. And Trump type figure in White House.

Long game.

Undermine NATO.

Bring Ukraines resources back into Russian orbit.

EIther threaten nuclear attack and / or else wait until the West has defanged itself.

Sure.Would you say the same if you lived in Latvia?

I will leave the military capabilities of Russia to others to assess but the future is a long time and this war is still ongoing.

The Democracies seem to be in permanent conflict with dictatorships.