Russia-Ukraine War

It's not so much Russian general population "panic" ,as russian logistics, rail in particular, the Ukrainians have one of the major supply lines under artillery fire , and while it's far from the only line ,it'll putting serious extra pressure on an already creaking Russian rail system…

UAF managed to take out another supply column

How may are in this 810th murder gang? They may slow things up, but they will hopefully also be dealt with comprehensively along the way.

It will be difficult on an individual level for Ukrainians not to respond in kind, but ultimately they will need to to not let themselves - as they have peerlessly done up to now - sink to the levels of deviant, degenerate depravity of the Russians. This is of course the correct course of action,no matter how satisfying retaliation may be at the time. Those who joyously commit these type of atrocities, and are additionally hailed as heroes by their regime, will have will have to be suffered by wider society in the future. These brutes will go on to inflict harm on anyone that crosses their path if they emerge out the other side of this war.

I think that is way off. Fundamentally the Russian view in that post does not express their reality (dont at me) but the Russians see this war as existential not one of choice , their people see this conflict as a NATO proxy war with the goal of breaking up Russia, they aint turning and fleeing, the Russians are playing this as an attrition strategy their logic is you attrit the other side until they crack. All wars end right? at the end of this Ukraine will still exist but it will have smaller borders , they will lose some section of the east of the country, the rest is just horse trading

A mix of good and bad news on BBC: hundreds of Russian soldiers captured, airbases hit, but progress is slowing in Kursk and more territory slipping away in Ukraine...

Another Russian column swatted out of existence near Koronevo by HIMARs according to Russians

source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/LvlQjUzDEg

Another mass surrender of Russians

I think their government believes it and their people are with them, Im sure there is always dissenting opinion but it makes no odds. Im not falling for anything, the point is I dont see Russia collapsing or somehow doing a coup against Putin, that's fantasy land.

What does Ukraine's incursion into Russia really mean? | Responsible Statecraft

Fill your boots.

Yes, you can see that in any recent Russian vox pop. They talk about the war as if it is something happening in Peru or Tibet…something that doesn't involve them and over which they have no agency. The idea that their opinion could in any way influence the outcome of the war seems beyond alien to them. The fact that their own country has been invaded barely even seems to register with them.

What's dumb about it? Let's see..

It has already diverted Russian forces from the frontlines elsewhere. It's been a huge boost to morale for Ukraine. If they hold any of it, the land can be used as a vital bargaining chip. They have captured hundreds of Russian POWs which can be exchanged. It's once again embarrassed and exposed the Russian leadership and military. It has created world headlines, which is critical for Ukraine to keep the war in the public's eye. It's also created a tactical headache for the Russians who have to expend resources reinforcing that entire border line. It's shown how dynamic the Ukrainian military can be.

If the Russians push them back, the Ukrainians will be in advantageous defensive positions, the Russians will be obliterating their own country to do so, and for what? Best case scenario they reclaim some of their own territory.

The risks? That plus some weakness on the Eastern front which is being ground away anyway inch by inch.

Who do you mean when you say the 'Russians' - the current members of the Russian army? The population of the entire of Russia? Or just the population of Moscow, St. Petersburg etc? Or just the provincial Russians? Because for the size of the country, I don't see the massive queues of Russians lining up to volunteer that you'd expect in an existential war. I do hear a lot of talk of conscripts. And before you mention Ukrainian conscripts, there is a vast difference in population size as well as the fact that as the invaded country (i) their volunteers have already been fighting for a couple of years and (ii) many Ukrainians, facing an existential threat, fled from the war with their families in the early weeks/ months.

I don't see any evidence of the Russians seeing this war as an existential threat. There was no threat before Putin ordered the invasion - he was at great pains to tell everyone that. There's been hardly any attacks on Russian territory. And there's been no sign of any popular resistance to the Ukrainians to date.

Which all makes sense - even thinking back to WW2, the only point at which the poorly equipped and unmotivated Russians stopped running from the Germans was when it ultimately did become an existential fight for survival. At that point, for sure, the Russians' ability to endure proved decisive. Right now, I don't see the Russians rushing to fight an enemy who aren't coming for them, in defence of an elite who even they surely can see don't give two f**ks about them.

From your link

"My worry is that in the longer term, Ukraine, which is facing dangerous shortfalls in manpower and equipment, will deplete elite units that would have been needed elsewhere. In a war of attrition, manpower and equipment are essential. 

But in material terms, not much can be expected in terms of lasting impact. Ukraine will be forced to retreat from Russia, and its surviving troops and equipment will be redistributed, after rest and refit, to other critical areas of Ukraine’s front with Russia."

Let's look at this in simple terms: you say that the cost of Ukraine's operation in Kursk is probably high. I say that the price of Ukraine driving at Russian lines in the east would almost certainly be far higher.

I'm no Sun Tzu, but even I know that armies should seek to strike the enemy where they are weak, not where they are strong.

OK, if the land Ukraine is occupying is really just inconsequential, then I'm sure it won't particularly bother Putin to let them have it.

One of the results of Putin closing off Russia to become North Korea II has been the desertion of trained flight crew and pilots from it's national airline Aeroflot to other countries and airlines abroad.

He was never the sharpest tool in the box but somehow the public cowed under his thugs to now see Russia fall apart and become a sister of North Korea.

Words from Кара-Мурза.

Earlier, Kara-Murza expressed the opinion that after the fall of the Putin regime, the Russian people will have a lot of work to do to correct their mistakes, and the most important task will be healing and education regarding the events that took place, as well as accepting public responsibility for what happened.