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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

1808809811813814943

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    There us no such thing as an exact same houses. Actually I had not completely read your orginal post, I actually taught it was actual data from actual house prices. However it hypothetical prices of hypothetical houses.

    I presume these are Chartered Quantity Surveyors. Take the Northwest region how many 3 bed semi's are actually build there over the last 5 years I doubt if there was any substantial housing developments in the region. So the prices for there are a probably a guesstimate of the actual cost.

    There Is a certain amount of development outside major cities like Limerick Cork and Galway. Did the CQS just look up there own cost figures and take averages. For instance in area like the NW the CQS may never be asked to cost a significant amount of site work, the developer may do that directly himself.

    In Louth I woukd definitely say the level and quality of finish is to attract buyers from Dublin.

    And after all that it goes back to what an Irish teacher once said about grammer rules

    "the exception proves the rule"

    because if you have different prices in different regions is often due to regional discrepancies.

    After all my contributions maybe you can give your opinion as to why there are differences because I woukd like to hear your conspiracy theory

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It's the SCSI. And prior to reading the post you replied "everything is more expensive In Dublin". In differing ways Dav010 and PeadarCo did the same. That's because it is intutive to assume that everything is more expensive in Dublin. That's the whole point - the SCSI are reporting somehting totally counterintuitive and nobody is even asking why.

    I don't think it is some great conspiracy - they're a lobby group for vested interests trying to influence government policy, specifically keeping the taxpayers funds to bridge the affordability gap flowing.

    I think the most plausible explanation is that the market is setting average house prices and developers will price them at the market will pay for them - that seems totally reasonable.

    However in order to keep the taxpayers funds bridging the gap between what the average buyer can afford and the selling price the SCSI need to show the gap is caused by the build cost rather than market forces.

    You can make a plausible argument for this in Dublin and much can be explained by increased land and labour costs. That's intuitive as you've shown.

    But if you were to use the similiar fittings and finishes costs for Dublin in other markets eg Louth, Galway, Leitrim etc the build costs including developers margine would show no affordability gap - this would be lower than market value.

    SO the obvious answer is to simply massage some of the costs to inflate the price confident that nobody will question them.

    It's not a conspiracy, just the most intuitive and plausible explanation of figures that are counterintuitive and implausible.

    Lobbyists will lobby, that's not a crime or a conspiracy. But when they're talking bull it should be called out for what it is.

    I am open to hearing any more intuitive or plausible explanation, but to date I've yet to hear one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    You are not interested in a more intuitive explanation. You either don't like or understand the figures and have decided it's a conspiracy to keep prices high/get money from the government. Saying a lobby group is trying to deceive the government with it's report and you have no evidence (you haven't indicated that you have any specialist knowledge that would add any credibility to your vague feelings) to suggest otherwise is the definition of a conspiracy.

    It's not intuitive to think things costs more in Dublin. In Dublin you have large economies of scale, you have a large workforce that have access to relatively cheap public transport(IE no need for a car). In rural areas you don't. Certain utilities are so expensive to provide in rural areas the government has to step in. It's the same for all urban areas there are large efficiencies. Living in rural areas can in many ways be more expensive than an urban area require a car etc. You also have a lower pool of labour and if you want to get stuff delivered from far away or people to come to work from far away all that will add costs. And again this is just skimming the surface of the complexity of cost of living in urban v rural areas



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    it also applied in the private sector…and did so long after it changed in public sector in some cases



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    As I have said before developers margin can be easily adjusted up or down by the price the developer pays his investment company that owns the land.

    As for costs some materials etc will be cheaper in Dublin if large scale developments and can benefit from economies of scale.

    Labour generally will be more expensive due to higher rents or travel costs etc. and a builder that had local work will settle for a lower price (if they have to) rather than spend 3 or 4 hours travelling everyday and paying for fuel etc.

    security costs whether it’s insurance/stolen materials or cctv linked to Garda stations in Dublin and security guards present or just paying some gangsters protection money.

    Cost of specialists equipment, traffic management systems, cranes, etc and health and safety where site access is tight and involves public roads and footpaths and needs staff directing traffic or working unusual hours.

    I’m sure there are other costs where prices will differ but generally these will be on the finished spec of property and ensuring it fits in with existing developments etc.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Sure, I am not disputing there will be cost variances in different locations for exactly the reasons you mention - that's just common sense and totally to be expected.

    But do you have a view on the specific question I asked about loos and gutters in Galway - three times more expensive than Dublin - and finishes in Louth - twice the price of the Dublin?

    I know you're not suggesting traffic management or health and safety is behind this variance.

    So, if it is not massaging the figures by vested interests, what is the cause of such a large variance?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Like an apprentice TD program over the last couple of pages with the dodging of the actual questions asked

    Well done @hometruths great observations



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Honestly don't know. I don't know enough about the industry and to be fair by your own admission neither do you. You've don't have any evidence that's it's the falsification of figures. Leaping to conclusions because you don't understand something is text book conspiracy theory.

    Common sense is a meaningless phrase. Remember a few hundred years ago it was common sense that the sun went around the earth, it was common sense that the 4 humors were accurate when it comes to medicine. I could keep going with examples of how often common sense can be completely wrong. So common sense is evidence of nothing.

    Again to talk about Galway are we talking about a house out in the middle of no where in Connemara or Galway city, or is it a rough average. Connemara is going to be more expensive due to less labour competition and higher travel and delivery costs. The point about finishes has been explained numerous times but you keep dismissing it. Again remember this Hypothetical house doesn't exist and if the report uses historical data from an area it will use the costs of a typical finish in this area.

    You've made the assumption in one of your posts that everything in Dublin should cost more because it was common sense. Any decent knowledge of utilities/infrastructure/ construction/manufacturing would tell you urban areas provide large economies of scale that helps in a lot of ways versus more rural areas. Obviously it's not black and white but you are trying to apply "common sense" to a complex area. You need to be very careful of the Dunning Kruger effect.

    Realistically to properly understand the differences you would need to review the details of the data, it's assumptions, where the figures that make up the data, limitations (no data set is perfect)etc etc,. You will also need a degree of knowledge about the industry.

    You've made a huge leap to make an accusation that the figures have been falsified/massaged when some of your questions can be explained without even back of envelope calculations or any remote investigation of the data.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    variance has to be down to mainly labour costs and land and house specs. As local markets will have different standards used.

    Guttering should be same cost as long as work not required on drains and using like for like. Realistically the only difference should be that you may require more fixings on account of weather etc….. but suspect the example your using is using different materials e.g. more solid anti rust metal v cheap plastic guttering which would account for a price differential and one may be preferred/standard in a local market over another.

    Loos as a product yet again should be the same if no work on drains required. But if work is required it will differ depending on the soil, access and etc and whether additional considerations are needed due to a flooding or old drainage etc….

    The massaging of figures is mainly done on the profit on the land



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    When did it actually properly end in Ireland? Was still just about a thing with my grandparents (married 1940) over in the UK.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    1973 (I think) but continued into 80’s in practice just like the way equal pay for women didn’t happen the second the law was passed.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Should be the same - at least we're in agreement on that it would appear.

    But clearly not the same as they are over three times more expensive in one region compared to another.

    Still no clearer as to why that might be.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yep, it's quite stunning the straws that some posters will clutch at, as well as the dodging and deflecting. I wish I understood the motivation.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You've made a huge leap to make an accusation that the figures have been falsified/massaged when some of your questions can be explained without even back of envelope calculations or any remote investigation of the data.

    You keep saying this and that I've dismissed it, can you run those explanations past me again? I must have missed them.

    Edit to add: Is it the finishes in Louth cost twice as much in Dublin because the average house in Louth needs a far higher standard of finish than the average house in Dublin in order to entice Dublin buyers?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    are they identical specs and products used? Probably not that’s a small cost….main costs differences will be labour and land



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    So what if something costs 3 times, 100 times more so what? It's an observation fair enough but you have provided no evidence that's it's wrong. Your prejudices IE common sense are not evidence

    All you done made a few observations which you don't understand fair enough and then jump straight to this is some big conspiracy about the figures being massaged. Again you have no evidence that the figures are wrong. Your only evidence is that they don't match your prejudices(IE common sense). Anyone who actually calls you out on this suddenly has malign motives. This approach is text book conspiracy theory. Look at vaccines denial, flat earthers etc you have the same approach. Find something they don't understand, don't make an effort to find/listen to boring if complicated explanation, jump to conspiracy, and then accuse anyone who calls them out as being part of the conspiracy. Your posts on the report follow that same process.

    You have made some interesting observations. But all they are is observations. It would be interesting to see some of the reasons behind the actual figures. Particularly from someone with hard evidence or knowledge of the industry.

    Building houses of any size and amount is complicated and requires specialist knowledge. It's no different from any occupation. A person may as well tell a doctor how to do their job because their "common sense" overrides years of training and experience.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Again don't know I don't have any specialist knowledge in the area and I'm not going to say the figures in the report are wrong because I don't understand them.

    Or put it another way if you think the report is wrong can you provide a breakdown of what you think the costs should be in Louth versus Dublin? Provide what you think the Dublin cost should be and what you think the costs should be in Louth. Be as specific as you can and the reasons behind any differences.

    Edit - just to clarify I don't doubt there are errors in the report particularly as it uses basically an imaginary house that doesn't actually exist. But in trying to cost this "average house" you have to make a lot of assumptions some which will better than others. You also have the normal statistical issues that come with using any average.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Exactly same size and spec 3 bed semi.

    I think we can definitely agree the land cost is not influencing the cost of the loos.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    This is getting quite absurd.

    I think that finishes to the same size and spec house in Louth should not cost over double that in Dublin.

    You disagree. Fair enough, it makes no difference to me.

    I also think guttering and sanitary ware on the same size and spec house in Galway should not cost over three times of that in Dublin.

    You also disagree with this.

    I have made my point. We can agree to disagree.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    are you just ignoring everything I say repeatedly….for about the 10 time the price variance will mainly come down to labour and land…. You have fixated on some erroneous data that you’ve picked up on…great but it’s small change and not the main reason for price differential. Which was your original question.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Now my initial questions were about the variances listed regionally for specific aspects of the build cost of an average 3 bed semi, nothing to do with land costs or the variance in entire cost of build

    To remind you:

    • Why are site works and site development costs more expensive in Cork than in Dublin?
    • Why are fittings - kitchens, wardrobes etc - almost 100% more expensive in Leitrim than in Dublin?
    • Why are the siteworks in Leitrim almost 50% higher than in Dublin?
    • Why are finishes - painting etc - over €50k in Louth vs €26k in Dublin?
    • Why do loos and gutters cost over three times as much in Galway as in Dublin?

    Absolutely nothing to do with land costs. In OP on the subject I expressly said of course you'd expect higher land and labour costs in some regions eg Dublin.

    Kind of ironic you're accusing me of ignoring everything you say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Your question specifically to me

    Can @Timing belt , @Bass Reeves , @Dav010 or anybody else who is convinced that there is no room for construction costs to fall without builders downing tools explain the regional discrepancies in the SCSI figures?

    majority of construction cost is labour and land… and as we know labour costs feed into all costs and the higher the hard costs mainly labour and land the higher the soft costs as they are normally a variable based on hard costs…. But rather than look at this let’s talk about loos and guttering 2 things that are not mentioned anywhere in the report specifically.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    And the very next paragraph of the same post that you didn't quote:

    Sure obviously land costs in Greater Dublin will be higher than everywhere else, and labour would be expected to be a little higher too. But materials, and fixtures and fittings ought to be broadly similiar.

    And the rest of post listed the breakdown of the costs on fittings, finishes etc regionally and I asked could you explain the variances.

    Are you being deliberately disingenuous? It certainly appears so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    not being disingenuous just not going down some rabbit hole (which is where most of your posts end up) and sticking to the topic that was being discussed regarding a 30% drop in construction costs and the fact that it’s not realistically achievable without trades people taking a pay cut or something happens to lower land costs.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Fair enough, if you don't want to engage with the questions, just say so, or ignore me, but don't try and pretend you're discussing it in good faith by avoiding what I asked and making out I asked a different question.

    As Villa05 says its like trying to talk to have a discussion with trainee TDs.

    You and Bass Reeves are clearly smart enough to see the problems with these figures.

    What I find both fascinating and unfathomable is why you're so reluctant to admit it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Might be an idea for your New Year’s resolution….rather than trade insults which it looks like you may have already started but I will put that down to your inability to control it and move on.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The only possible reason you could think I have insulted you is that you misread the post you quoted.

    Read it again, if you still feel I have insulted you, then not much I can do about that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I like to know the methodology and how the pricing took place. I say the Dulin pricing could be accurate. Pricing woukd have been carried out by larger CQS firms in Dublin. Probably similar in Louth.

    In the rest of the country you have a mixture of QS firms and individual QS's. In the NW it was probably all sole trader CQS as there would be few enough firms in place up there. None woukd be pricing the small building sites even if there were any 3 bed semiD build up there.

    To price such an estate is probably a weeks plus work if you did not have the data at hand like QS firms Dublin would have from pricing such jobs In the NW and non city area will a CQS spend a week pricing such a job for a survey. As Bailey said to Gogarty "will he f@@k"

    In the rest of the country QS firms in cities would have the data, QS's operating by themselves would not.

    There is no way that everyone of the reports were prices like for like.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Yes there is a problem the problem is no QS firms or Individual is going to spend a 30-40 hours pricing such a hypothetical housing estate unless they are paid 5k+++ for the work. To get a sample size of 50+ price comparisons for the whole country would cost a quarter of a million++. This was not like for like pricing. It was data pulled together from from existing jobs they had priced.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Well at least we can agree there is a problem.

    And thankfully we've moved on from the it's probably very high standards of finish in Louth to entice the Dublin buyers idea.

    I think we agree on the nub of the issue - the variances don't make sense.

    We can agree to disagree on why they don't make sense. I've made my point.



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