Russia-Ukraine War

Interesting

The question which needs to be asked is the makeup of that 50,000. If it was primarily convicts, ethnics and foreign mercs, then Putin couldn't give a fcuk. He'll throw that at the front line all day.

It also seems that punishing, numbers-based attrition warfare is sort of worshipped in Russian culture, given how central the sacrifices of WW2 are in their history. Maybe it plays into the whole 'Russia is big' mythos, despite having a population of 140 million. Lot of people, but far from inexhaustible and doubly so when you consider that only some of this number can go to war.

Even this lad isn't denying Ukraine's presence in certain areas.

What's interesting is the direction of travel (coming from Belaya). Very close to the Kursk/Belgorod border at that stage. And from a doom merchant poster on twitter to a more (perhaps overly) optimistic one.

It turns out that BTR was captured by the Russians so they're well in control of the area around giri.

I've read another report that Russians are finally in control of Sudzha which I hope is true this time. I think Ukraine will dig in here and it'll become the frontline.

As RoyalCelt said. There's another vid that appears to show this is a captured piece of kit.

Ukrainians 😂

But yeah I seen that BTR initially reported as Ukrainian from pro Ukraine telegram sources but later confirmed as Russian captured as a closer video was taken. Who knows it could be Ukrainian soldier's dressed as Russians but I doubt it.

Just read this however.

And even rumours alone about the AFU being spotted here/there will be enough to sow even more panic amongst the locals as well as the defending RU forces… make them suspicious of everyone… There were rumours spreading last week that the AFU were disguising themselves as priests..

AFU special forces even covertly painting a few triangles on Russian equipment could be enough to start RU on RU attacks amid the total confusion & incompetence in which they seem to operate

You'd like to think they have a long term plan here, to maybe try and hold onto some of the Kursk oblast for a few weeks/months, let the Russians expend untold amounts of men/equipment to slowly claw it back, and when it looks like Russia finally have it back, pull out while simultaneously opening a new front somewhere else on the border…. all the while easing some of the pressure on the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine.

Probably better for all concerned for Russians to just die in Russia as opposed to dying in Ukraine… probably spares a bit of paperwork too..

Long article but a decent read -

Russia Has the Resources for a Long War in Ukraine - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The Russian authorities are extremely unlikely to choose to cut military spending in order to maintain previous levels of domestic consumption. The economy is destined to become more and more militarized, even if that results in stagnating or falling real incomes. Still, this is unlikely to cause real problems for the regime. Firstly, standards of living would still remain relatively high: certainly, they have a long way to fall until they reach what they were in the Soviet period, not to mention the destitution of the early 1990s. Secondly, growing repression, the embrace of an avowedly militant and nationalistic state ideology, and attacks on free speech have helped the authorities keep a lid on dissent at home. In an extreme case, they can easily crush any public expressions of opposition. The only real risk is if the salary levels of employees of the security apparatus and military personnel fall below current levels—but the authorities have resources to ensure that this does not happen.

In other words, Russia will be able to maintain military spending for a relatively long time, just like other pariah countries. This is bad news for Ukraine, ordinary Russian citizens, people living in neighboring countries, and the overall global security environment.

This is why when Ukraine started hitting Russian product capacity collective Western voices started piping up. Cheap oil is still a desirable goal for Western economies.

Source, Russian Fossil tracker.

Any source within the ballpark of credibility?

And the cost will go up with the frontline expanding into Russia.

For an offensive that Russians claimed was stopped, things sure just keeps getting worse

lol Putin doesn’t want to hear numbers

Closer to Hitler's not being able to understand the collapse of the German front. Putin's lost his swagger. He must feel very vulnerable right now… from his own side.

In many ways, its another example of the really high levels of tactical nous and ability to adapt to conditions by the UAF. It's been obvious since day 2 of Putin's "special military operation" that the Russian forces are a shambles, poorly led, slow to react and hugely reliant on superiority of numbers and artillery… any time those advantages have been reduced they've been spanked by the Ukrainians. But as long as that fight was taking place on Ukrainian soil, the gains for Ukraine were minimal. So this last week has seen them sidestep Putin's choice of battleground to put on a demonstration elsewhere. It's looking more and more like the Ukrainians are planning to simply lead the Russians on a violent, destructive wild goose chase in their own back yard as the Russians struggle to figure out how to hit back effectively at a mobile, efficient, well equipped, lightweight, fast moving, motivated and disciplined fighting force. The Ukrainians just need to keep moving, ensuring a clear line of retreat available at all times, and hobble the Russians as they try to engage in exactly the same way they have been doing in Ukraine.

Their leading Putin's boys on a merry dance, showing just what an emperor with no clothes he is. Bravo.

A very good point. This is possibly what Ukraine want, it is something Putin avoided, at least publically and has the potential to destabilise his grip on power.

I assume the longer this goes on the more chance Putin falls out a window ?