Russia-Ukraine War

I'd agree with the good and bad for Ukraine. Whilst the Ukrainian invasion was a great morale booster from their point of view, it heaps pressure on Russia/Putin to respond in a way that will (a) reclaim the lost area and then some, and (b) give Russia a similar morale/propaganda boost. This is worrying as Putin would have to do something overly drastic to ensure the win and ensure that it has the necessary panache to dissuade future Ukrainian invasion and quell any potential concern for his leadership. Chemical weapons & leaning more on Lukashenko to get Belarus directly involved are potentially on the table. Best course of action in my (completely militarily unqualified) view would be to mine the pockets they invade and pull back to their borders creating buffer zones - Only one side could sustain the invasion(s) long term.

NATO missed this memo...

It's a distraction as it has yet to be seen whether or not Ukraine will be able to sustain any territory in Russia. If they can then it could be a game changer. The difference in a tangible move and a distraction will ultimately depend on the outcome. Right now, I would suspect this is short term. Ukraine won't be able to supply troops if they try and cut deeper into Russia. In my opinion it's not sustainable other than creating a distraction and moving men and weapons away from the front on both sides.

Even if it is short term, should Ukraine use this as a means to push Russia back at the front then it would obviously be a massive success but I suspect we would need to see more territory along the border taken for Russia to have to massively recalibrate in a way that gives Ukraine the initiative at the front.

As for the war of attrition, when I say one side can win, that is Russia as they have more weapons and more men.

A distraction would have been Ukraine going there and being pushed back within few hours. I mean, we are talking about a country that claimed to have a strong and unlimited soldiers.

How come after 4 days, Ukraine is still going?

Not sure. Alot could depend on this US election in November. Harris and in particular Walz have shown much support for Ukraine and will continue to support them. It would be fantastic if they gave more support than Biden, the country easily has the capacity to do so. Congress will be the deciding factor again. Most suspect Trump will pull support but im not 100% convinced. More than likely yes, but he is a wildcard. The brass of the military might convince him how its in Americas interest to continue support. The US is getting incredible value for money in funding Ukraine in taking down a competing world power. If Trump does pull support, the EU might pick up some of the slack. If Trump wanted to be a super dick about it he could limit the EU owned US weaponry that they want to forward on to Ukraine. If that happens Ukraine will be in a very very difficult situation. It also depends on Germany and France wanting to give support, which is no guarantee either.

Then again, the Russian economy could collapse tomorrow, who knows.

Maybe thousands of troops.

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As for the war of attrition, when I say one side can win, that is Russia as they have more weapons and more men.

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Spoken like a true putin fanboy. You have taken note that the invasion of Ukraine by putin's terrorists has not been going very well for them and they have lost huge quantities of their trained military forces and equipment?

Well it's a great distraction isn't it?

Yesterday's equipment losses -

Then there's also the abandoned Russian equipment from fleeing forces that Ukraine have managed to get. I've not seen as much detail in terms of munitions acquired but stuff like this

Ukrainian Forces Capture Valuable Russian T-72B3 Tanks (msn.com)

One particularly notable find is an abandoned T-72B3 tank near the town of Sudzha. This model, equipped with advanced thermal imaging cameras, represents a significant loss for the Russian military.

you would think only an actual sociopath could do that but russian society seems to breed large numbers of people with sociopathic behaviour. Sociopaths is considered genetic but russian society makes me think it might not be the case considering the high numbers.

Also heard about another KA-52 shot down

Oh yes, that too. I think fighterbomber or whatever its called confirmed that

Not exactly a 1:1 analogy though, as Russia isn't Ukraine, invaders probably equally unwelcome in both countries