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General Irish politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,414 ✭✭✭✭L1011




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,087 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Check twitter for indivual county council feeds?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 344 ✭✭Greengrass53


    . Would you like to live there? Lots of these unfortunates are living and working here. Don't come up with the usual tropes about social welfare etc.Have a bit of humanity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,156 ✭✭✭yagan


    Now ffg feel emboldened again after those results I reckon they'll actually tear strips off each other in a GE in belief that either party would be the main party with a third party as mudguard.

    It could backfire on them if they voters towards a centre left coalition that excludes ffg.

    Leo varadkar was actually sf best asset for a while.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,282 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Are you referring to the two who had a go at their Green party coalition colleagues, Lisa Chamber and Regina Doherty? It's a competition between the two as to which is, the Liz Truss of Irish politics.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,565 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It will be interesting to see if there is any repercussions in the Greens after losing their two MEPs which now looks likely and a bit of a pasting in the LE's. I know Ryan has talked up their performance but it was pretty dismal.
    Will internal recriminations kick off again and destabilise the coalition?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,293 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The party with the biggest questions to answer is Sinn Fein, of that there is no doubt.

    The Greens have outperformed expectations. Not so long ago, the "experts" on here were predicting zero Green seats after the general election. They look certain to hold three or four, that maybe enough to go back into government, on the back of the improved performances of FF and FG. If you look at the government parties, they had nearly 50% between them, which would be enough to win another term. Furthermore, the influence the Greens have had on this government has been huge, and a lot of that progress can't be reversed.

    For Sinn Fein, it is looking like another five years in the wilderness with a distinct lack of talent in the ranks. Already, the likes of Labour and the SDs appear to have recruited some excellent councillors and are ready to challenge SF more closely.

    Dark days ahead for Sinn Fein unless they can come up with some bright ideas that convince the electorate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,565 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The Greens have outperformed expectations.

    Maybe their own expectations. But losing their MEP's and halving their LE vote is a pretty poor performance.
    SF already have faced up to it being a bad day for them and they are not coalition junior partners.

    I'm specifically interested in the Greens internal workings here. As we know internal wrangling was simmering fairly hotly at the outset of the coalition, could it return now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,293 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    They far exceeded your expectations for them - you saw them being wiped out. It was a great performance by your expectations.

    Now you are desperate for some internal disruption to cause trouble for the coalition. Dream on.

    As for Sinn Fein, they have faced up to nothing, all their spokespersons talking about "change" again. Change was the issue of the 2020 election, things have moved on, we have seen Brexit, we have seen Covid, the issue in the next election will be who will you trust to manage the country, "change" as a mantra is dead in the water, but Sinn Fein are still flogging that dead duck. Spinning that they have faced up to it being a bad day for them is foolish at best.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,565 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    you saw them being wiped out

    In a GE I said they would be decimated like many many junior partners before them I made no prediction about the Green performance in this election. If I did, link to it.

    Plenty of threads discussing SF.
    I asked a question of others here about the Greens.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,466 ✭✭✭Bredabe


    This has begged for since I first heard it, I feel I must be missing something but can't see what.

    Local FG cllr signed to revoke the anti-eviction order saying they were doing it as, not signing it would make more not fewer ppl homeless.

    Now we are at an all-time high in homelessness, it seems not to have worked, but I can't see what the logic was in saying it at all is?

    "Have you ever wagged your tail so hard you fell over"?-Brod Higgins.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,521 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The greens are happy to ebb and flow and be in government whenever possible. The greens have no (realistic) plans to be a major party in government, if they're successful, their policies are adopted by others.

    Europe is backing away from green policies at the moment so Ireland is a bit of an outlier there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,070 ✭✭✭Dickie10


    you would imagine SF best tactic over these days is to own the mess of an election and tell their supporters and general public that they wil spend some time navel gazing and rooting through the dbris and come out stronger etc etc. instead Boylan got peevish and kept repeating that they had got more seats than last time. they look and sound for all intents and purposes like an aged sportsperson thats haggered and worn out, same faces , same aul passive agrression at being called out. they sund tired, id say pearse and mary lou will get hard to resurrect themselves for GE. MLMD i think will start looking for the exit package after GE. They also seem to be stuck now for a cause to fight against, the watery reposnse to a united ireland by the general public in the south dosent help them either, Brexit done, stormont back and a good chance housing begins to flow more as well now, also FG going in hard on immigration with simon harris is taking that thunder off them even though they werent sure what way their wind was blowing on that. Next government FG/FF/GR/INds , i predict a mid october election maybe 3rd friday. it gives 3 weeks of usually decent weather in early to mid october and still bright til 7-7:30pm. any later then id leave til mid march



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,565 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You obviously missed the bit where she said it wasn’t the day SF would have wanted and a review will be held. If yoy are just going to cherrypick what suits you it is pointless listening to anyone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,156 ✭✭✭yagan


    How is the greens losing seat defying expectations?

    If their expectation is self destruction they could very well do a 2011 again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    It wasn't a great election for the Greens but it was never likely to be given their status as the minor party in government. If we look at some examples from the past:

    • Greens in the 2009 locals: Went from 15 seats → 3 (FPV 3.9% → 2.3%)
    • Labour in the 2014 locals: Went from 132 seats → 51 (FPV 14.7% → 7.1%)

    Greens in this election went from 49 seats → 23 (FPV 5.7% → 3.6%)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,156 ✭✭✭yagan




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Madeoface


    I see one of the bottom feeders on the right said 'the revolution has begun'.

    With 4 out of 949 seats?

    Only issue here is that SF will have to pivot right to reabsorb the gonks that voted these people in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,156 ✭✭✭yagan


    I don't see it playing out that way.

    I think it's FG who's been leading to the charge to meet the far rights demands with border checks and repeated tent removals etc… McEntee is as vacuous and craven to play up security for votes as an English Tory.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Much as their haters would love it to happen I can't see the Greens being wiped out again. Their base of support is higher now than it was back in 2011. They'll lose all of the floating vote that they picked up in 2020 and it will lead to the loss of most of their seats but they'll still be strong in their South Dublin heartland.

    In particular Dublin-Rathdown is increasing from a 3 seater to a 4-seater so Catherin Martin will be nailed on to retain her seat.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Which ultimately, you'd like to hope, is what'll head off any further rise of the Far Right: centrist parties will naturally twist towards stricter migration policies, as they would any other topic floating in the political zeitgeist; even if it's utterly performative it has potential to satisfy the casually antagonistic voters out there, those happy to keep giving the mainstream parties their vote, as long as they're seen to do "something" about the issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,565 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Has to be a massive slap in the face, I'm sure they can explain away their decimation in the LE's with some of their 'we know best' haughtiness but losing their MEPs is a disaster.
    A tetchy exchange between a Green and a FFer (I think) on Claire Byrne this morning doesn't augur well.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The change in Government in the UK means that the nonsense that is the Rwanda policy will go away, which will see the flow of migrants coming in via NI dramatically reduce. So the need for the more aggressive approach around Tent clearing etc. will decline substantially so the "lurch to the right" as some have described it will not really be needed all that much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,156 ✭✭✭yagan


    I have a feeling that the mood in Fianna Fail is election as soon as possible to try to catch SF votes so a scrap with a wounded coalition partner would be an easier pretext than a spat with FG. They'll be saving their real venom for FG



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,712 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Ivan Yates discussed the possibility of the Greens being tossed aside pre GE. Surely if FF+FG did so and got enough for a coalition between the two of them it'd make their lives far easier. Very difficult to govern in the interests of their members and usual voters with the Greens involved.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,967 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I'd say that's the mood all round tbh.

    Like you say, using the Greens as the excuse to go early would suit both FF and FG.

    Having to set out their stall to fight multiple by-elections only to then have to try to freshen it up again a few months later makes no sense.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I would think the by-elections should be held very soon, or not at all - just go for the GE in late October.

    Having the by-elections early, keeps options open for Simon Harris. He has said he will go full term

    He could still go for October, but keep late Feb/early March possible. Of course, St Patrick's day does cramp his options a bit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,156 ✭✭✭yagan


    They'd still have to face each other eventually.

    I reckon it'll will be a cracker of an election because the narrative they've taken from the local elections is that SF is now the third party, which makes no sense considering SF bad local election 2019 followed by knocking fg into third place in the 2020 ge.

    FGGs greatest challenge going into the next election is convincing the greater turnout that they are two distinct offerings.

    If they both use "keep SF out" then that only benefits SF, so the uneasy truce since 2016 between the old duopoly may get ripped up as a matter of long term survival



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,091 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't really understand what this would mean in context. The three government parties are not going to campaign together and are not going to have any kind of pact going into the election.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,565 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They are though going to have to say what their intentions are if there is no overall majority. That’s were potential frictions between parties and within parties may come to the fore.



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