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Which party will you give your #1 preference to in the upcoming European election

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,129 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Turnout seems comparable at same stage in 2019. Probably not surprising the campaigns were fairly low key, no huge issues or controversy, migration seemed to fade as campaign progressed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    Says the guy moaning about the right in Israel bombing Gaza in parallel thread



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 630 ✭✭✭Ozvaldo


    Interesting the fact that there is not 1 good politician in the entire country to vote for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,012 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The far right underperforming polling is great, yes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,129 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Apparently no exit poll tomorrow which is a pity, always good for some early indications.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,308 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    There will be no meltdown, I despise everything she stands for but if the people vote her in then so be it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,152 ✭✭✭✭elperello




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,308 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Voted number 1 for Ciaran Mullooly, not sure how well he will do but he seems like a decent person.

    Hopefully Hearne will get nothing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,129 ✭✭✭MFPM


    I'd be surprised if Mullooly doesn't get it, Rory H will do OK but no chance of a seat never did.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,396 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    There is more of a chance that she would get in then Wallace I say (probably employee him as an expert). It will depend on transfer.

    But as you say if either or both get elected so be it life goes on



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75 ✭✭Eudaimonia


    Whilst I’m sure it would delight anti NATO crowd in here that Daly supposedly stands up to the west to flout the majority of our country’s population who want global peace and security and adherence to national borders her blatant actions against the west are potentially treasonous and dangerous.

    The rugby dads boring as their middle class law abiding existence might be to people who reject the establishment life, abide by international law. That means they are aware of their greater existence outside of our country’s own parochial existence and borders. To reject this and be edgy streetwise or contrarian is naive and not aware of the impending threat of mentally sick actors on the international stage. In short it is juvenile and anti establishment juvenile.

    Daly’s stance against sanctions can be seen as aligning with a foreign power that is perceived as hostile or aggressive. This could be interpreted as prioritizing foreign interests over national security, which can border on legal violations of loyalty to our country and our European allies. By flouting Europes interests she is endangering a whole continent and the structures keeping that peace which is imbecilic.

    Historical instances, such as the breakdown of international order in the 1930s, show how the absence of strong alliances and international institutions can lead to global conflict. The success of post-WWII international institutions in maintaining peace underscores the importance of these structures.

    Daly’s contrarian and anti-establishment stance may resonate with segments of the population that are disillusioned with traditional politics and do not directly experience the implications of global security policies such as the Irish people who support her who are ignorant.

    This demographic often includes those who seek dramatic change but are not on the front lines of conflict. While this stance can gain short-term popularity, it may hinder her long-term career prospects. Politicians who adopt extreme positions can struggle to build broad coalitions and may be marginalized when pragmatic and nuanced approaches are needed. It is treasonous, a betrayal of Ireland and Europe and traitorous of her to advance her career by such actions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,902 ✭✭✭thomas 123


    feckin hell some tea time rush Clare seeing some big figures up as high as 60% at some stations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,071 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Good news for McNamara might be his local area.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,704 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    My X feed is awash with people I don't follow and don't know going on and on about the far right.

    There isn't an election going on I don't know about is there?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,129 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Niall Boylan apparently poling well in working class areas as anticipated, the issue remains for him is if he can get transfers in sufficient numbers to get elected.

    Seems Andrews , Doherty safe, L Boylan more than likely then 5 for 1...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,012 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    So the figures on the poll as of today, when we finally see the actual European FPV:

    FG 16%
    IndI + Aontu 15%
    Combined Far Right 11%
    Green 10%
    SF 8%
    SD 6%
    FF 5%
    Labour 3%
    Combined Far Left, including Mick Wallace / Clare Daly 1%
    Independents 20%

    Actual FPV:

    FG 21%
    FF 20%
    SF 11%
    IndI + Aontu 10%
    Combined Far Left ~7%
    Combined Far Right ~5%
    Green 5%
    Labour 3%
    SD 3%
    Independents 14%

    So, as unrepresentative as the polls for pretty much every previous election; and does show that there's a very significant bias towards right and far right support on here versus reality.

    Also, what left wing support there is has a disproportionate number of Soc Dems and an underrepresentation of SF and the far left.

    Some people may have voted in this meaning their council vote, which has quite different FPV; but no way to tell how many, if any, did.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Now that the elections are over I was looking for this thread to do a comparison but I see L1011 has already done so.

    I think it's safe to say that the average person on this forum is in the 35-50 age bracket and male. They're probably more middle class than working class.

    That probably accounts for the massive difference in the FF numbers (since they draw support from older people). It probably is also the reason why the Greens and Soc Dems did better in the poll than in reality.

    Not sure why the far-right and far-left numbers are so far off though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,913 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Not sure why the far-right and far-left numbers are so far off though.

    I'd say Mick Wallace attracts a lot of votes from people who would definitely not regard themselves as Far Left and would probably give you a blank look if you said I4C to them…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 169 ✭✭Grey123


    What's the source for those FPV numbers? Wikipedia (I know) has a slightly different set (1-2% off) except it has II at 2.8% and Auntu at 2.1% so 5% combined vs the 15% on here.

    Based on those numbers I have the right (II + Auntu) + far right on here as 26% and actual as 7%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Irish_local_elections



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,705 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    This was for the euro elections, I went through the numbers myself at the time, adding all the votes from the 3 constituencies, and they're spot on



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,012 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    They're European election figures as this is a European election thread



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 169 ✭✭Grey123


    Ah obviously.

    Aontu were understandable the only outlier between the two elections really.

    Anyway the data is clear that boards is far more right wing than general society. Has been pretty clear for a while.

    Post edited by Grey123 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,705 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    The greens and social democrats are just as over represented as the far right...

    If you lump FG and FF together as center-right, they're underrepresented to the same extent



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