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Russia-Ukraine War

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,219 ✭✭✭Economics101


    @Lucien_Sarti: You seem to think that 50,000 Russian dead and 500,000 Ukrainian dead is somehow credible. 50,000 Ukrainian and 500,000 Russian deaths is nearer the truth.

    As usual the Russian story is the exact opposite of the truth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,986 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Might come as a surprise to you Cornelious, but in the Russian Republics, and of course the Ex Russian republics, ethnic Russians are not popular….far from it!!! Why did so many leave Mother Russia when they got the chance in 1991? Don't ever make the mistake of calling a non-ethnic Russian a "Russian" by mistake. You might get away with it once, being a foreigner, but not a 2nd time. The Republics all have their own separate cultural identities, in many cases different languages etc. And also, you will not find inter-marriage between two neighbouring republics being very common. In some cases, it's downright forbidden. The much-hyped up Ukronazis is exactly that, hyped up Kremlin Propaganda. The Azov battalion had a very tiny % which hold far right views but deny adhering to Nazi beliefs as a whole. Unlike Putin's Nazi's, who are followers of the real thing…Putin's war in Ukraine is fought on the same principles he copied from his hero, Adolf Hitler, and his propaganda, is page by page, taken from Goebbels hand book



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The far right candidates in the 2014 Ukrainian election got less than 2% of the vote between them, lower than most European countries. I wouldn't use the word "plenty" but I know where it comes from.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,726 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    I was being sarcastic, clearly nobody is getting a look in at Russian POW camps when they're returning people in that state.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,567 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    This is the point a lot of pro Russians often overlook. Even if their crazy theories about US backed coups, bioweapons etc etc were true, which theyre not, but even if they were, Russias response in annexing Crimea and supporting proxy insurgencies in Donbas has meant that such portion of Russia that was formerly pro Russian or Russian leaning is either:

    A) dead;

    B) in Russian occupied territory; or

    C) has fled the war.

    The rest of Ukraine, which had a lot of neutral, weakly anti Russian and a small amount of strongly anti Russian sentiment will now be a majority strongly anti Russian for at least a generation, and possibly several generations.

    Whatever the truth of the nonsense reasons for the invasion, it is undoubtedly one of the finest examples of how not to Geopolitics the world has ever seen.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,507 ✭✭✭keeponhurling


    This is a great post.

    I know it already got plenty of thanks, but bravo !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,507 ✭✭✭keeponhurling


    The penny seems to have dropped around air support.

    Ukraine cannot realistically reclaim territories back to even the pre-2022 borders without air support.

    And if they do not reclaim at least those territories, Putin will have "won" and it only encourages further land grabs and genocides.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    You might want to read this

    I know it’s off topic but it’s important today

    There are also multiple debates in politics forum


    You don’t have to do this and can stop at whatever point you want and your vote will still be valid but to have maximum impact it is best to use all your preferences.”



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,315 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Tbh I don't buy either the Russian or Ukrainian numbers. I personally don't believe anything like half a million Russian dead. Imho you'd have to be smoking the funny ciggies to buy into that. Of course I don't believe the Kremlin numbers either, of what is it now; 6000 dead? That's funny ciggies with a blotter acid chaser.

    I read an article a few weeks ago(I'll try to find it again) where different researchers tried to get a handle on the real numbers involved. It was easier for Ukraine it being far more open than Russia to do such research, but they got clever with trying to peek behind the Russian curtain. Iirc they looked at things like Russian probate applications, names added to town memorials etc.

    Anyhoo, the gist was that these different researchers reckoned they could comfortably speculate a "low end" figure for Ukraine of around 50-60k dead, for Russia around 80-90k dead. They saw spikes in deaths around campaigns like Bakhmut and such spikes were much more biased towards Russian deaths. Interestingly they noted Ukrainian deaths were higher and Russian lower in the early days of the invasion than supposed or spun, but spikes in Russian deaths increased over time and mass deaths have steadily increased. So it seems Russia's "throw meat at the problem" tactics are having the obvious results.

    Again personally and very speculatively of course I'd reckon the truer figures of combatants taken out of the equation, dead and injured, would be more like 150,000 Ukrainian and 250,000 Russian.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    UK Defence intelligence put it at half a million casualties last week

    French also had similar numbers recently and these intelligence guys did correctly call the impending invasion at start of war

    BBC also had a piece a year ago from what I remember where Ukrainians have multiple teams whose job is nothing more than collecting DNA samples from dead and captured, bbc also keeping a count and of obituaries but in a country where no one cares about people (and there is a window shaped incentive to not count the dead) that’s the absolute minimum point

    I would not be surprised that at end of war they release a number backed by DNA which will shock everyone, keep in mind judging by videos they can’t get to everyone especially when in retreat or deaths are result of long range strike or submarine conversion

    The Ukrainians have been very methodical in measuring everything about this war as data is important for good decision making



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,516 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    To reconcile some of the above posts - it could well be 250,000 Russian casualties and another 250,000 casualties from the annexed regions, Wagner etc etc who have been used as cannon fodder. The way those from the annexed regions were used puts the lie to Putin's claims to be doing this to protect those so-called ethnic Russians or merely to annex those regions.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    Or why it's leaders liked to decorate themselves in such a manner as this…..

    Russians-utkin-wagner - Copy.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,219 ✭✭✭Economics101


    My point about the 50k v 500k Russian/Ukrainian dead was not that the true figure was 500k/50k but that is was closer to the truth than the original absurd assertion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,996 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    This is great. Around 18:30 there's a question posed that is relevant to Ireland. Unfortunately we don't have leaders, or a public I suppose, who get it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 206 ✭✭randomuser02125


    It was the evil F-UK-USers that fooled the weak minded Russians (who are superior in every other respect) into attacking. Or something.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,146 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    Ah, the infamous Azov Battalion,foundation of so many Ruzzian fantasy narratives. From scrutinising Kremlin propaganda over the last couple of years, a number of facts become clear. The Azov ''battalion''is much more like a division than a mere battalion, or even an army, such are it's numbers and it's astonishing capacity for regeneration. It was supposedly destroyed, most of its members killed or captured at Mariupol, yet it reconstituted itself, doubtless in some amoeba-like manner, or like zombies to fight again. It also had enough spare manpower to murder the slain civilians at Bucha, whilst blaming the Ruzzian army for this heinous act and to maintain a permanent corps of fiendish nazis, whose main function is to both protect, yet threaten and intimidate Zelensky and force him to do their bidding. They are the real power behind the Zelensky administration, the Ukrainian government only puppets dangling from their strings, rather like a terrifying mixture of the Praetorian Guard, the SS and the Janissaries. They are yet nebulous yet ubiquitous, dreaded yet invisible and like Xerxes' 'immortals' no matter how many of these bogeymen are killed, their nefarious power and influence remains.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,035 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If Putin had the intention of protecting ethnic Russians in the Donbass, the 2022 invasion would have been concentrated squarely on that region instead of the three pronged mode of attack they went with.

    We may say it's 500,000 casualties for Russia, but Putin probably doesn't see it that way. All the convicts who got enlisted and died don't really count as actual people in Putin's world. To him, the best case would be that those dead prisoners paid their debt to Russian society through their blood sacrifice and can essentially be scrubbed from the ledger. With those from the Republics, they don't really have the political capital to start a movement that would topple Putin. So long as Putin can keep the majority of the particularly bad casualties to prisoners, ethniks and possibly even foreign mercs, he'll try to see the conflict out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,640 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Ha, a higher calibre of Putinbot turning up there. (By that I mean volume of content smeared onto the thread, not nessisarily quality). Given the pro-China stance seen in post history, I guess we're looking at a commited anti-West "tankie" as opposed to an actual Russian asset.

    I guess it's worth reflecting on why even after 2 years of a war that is clearly about conquest (which Russia don't even keep secret in their propiganda) that you'll have people in western democracies willfully ignore the actions of a clearly facist state, simply because they are opponents to the Hated West™.

    Full disclousure, I think I remember being like this myself in my teenage years. Very much anti-US. But even then, I don't think I remember gleefully cheerleading the attempted destruction of a demrocatic state or the innocent civilians therein.

    As I aged, and studied the history of facism through my interest in WWII, I began to gain perspective on my dislike of the US & her allies. As much as I disliked their foriegn policy, these countries had at least in principle the notion of being able to publically disagree with the sitting government, and to vote out its members if they failed to do their jobs. Without this, the whims and egos of a small group of people can impact the lives of countless ordinary people.

    The Russians represent something that the Nazies very nearly brought back to the world had they succeeded during WWII. They represent the removal of the idea of personal agency and protection of personal freedoms under the law. In both cases you live for the pleasure of The Party or The Leader and if they deem that you are to be enslaved for their enrichment, then that is what they'll make happen.

    Russian control of Europe pretty much means a return of Serfdom for those they would choose to spare. As we have seen with the Nazies, (and possibly also with the Russians in some cases with the Ukrainians they have taken under their control) that once the freedoms we take for granted are gone, then slavery comes soon after. They might call it something else, but that's what it usually amounts to.

    Defeating Russia is also about defending the lawful freedoms we now take for granted. The same applies to defending Taiwan from Chinese invasion or the potential take over of America by MAGA christian nationalist fasists.

    I'm not sure how to get though to a commited Tankie who has willfully ignored what a Russian success would potentially mean to their own freedom. Even in a facist state…the facists themselves are only safe while those in charge find them useful enough to keep around. Very quickly, that safefy may be gone, and they will find that they had gleefully helped remove the safeguards that would have protected them, from the ire of one man's ego.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,161 ✭✭✭zerosquared


    I dunno, volume can be easily created with ChatGPT

    It’s very important for the firehose of slurry to not only be smelly but voluminous, and consistency and historical facts are entirely optional when it comes to 💩 spreading



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 206 ✭✭randomuser02125


    So easily disproven. There was a total of around 3 to 4000 civilians killed. Of which the greatest individual atrocity was flight MH17. So all the rest were committed by Ukrainian forces? While the fascist Russians were committing the atrocities in the attached report? You're just pulling numbers out of your arse at this stage.

    https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2016/07/un-report-2014-16-killings-ukraine-highlights-rampant-impunity



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Last year or so, highlighted that Latvia was going to send cars seized from drunk drivers over to Ukraine for use by the armed forces. Someone in the thread attacked the plan as pointless.

    To date Latvia has delivered over 1,500 cars to Ukraine armed forces (cars are desperately needed to ferry wounded, minor logistics, etc)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,218 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    What's your point? They're culturally and geographically closer to Russia therefore we shouldn't be so hard on the Russians for invading them? I guess we should set a cap on the list of nations who should enjoy the right of self-determination so. If you're unfortunate enough to have been born next to an imperialist/ autocratic power who doesn't believe in basic civil liberties, then tough luck?

    People's narrow mindedness and short sightedness really depresses me sometimes. Its easy to see how countries slip so easily into chaos. Just look at the success the populists like Trump, BoJo, Farage and their armies of right wing independent candidates have had. And they irony is that they're the sort who look down their noses at others for being 'sheeple', all the while oblivious to how they're being played by elites for the benefit of elites.

    Post edited by Paddigol on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,734 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    seeing as your bringing up Italy 1948 why don’t you tell us about the democratic elections in Czechoslovakia, Hungary , Poland , which all rejected communism in the late 1940’s only to be crushed by the Iron Stalinist fist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,218 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    I had to push a number of times here on the huge figures that were being bandied about, the helpful responses I got seem to clarify that the 500,000 figure is not 500,000 dead but 500,000 casualties. I think the Russian deaths stood at something like 150,000 on the last detailed figures. Those figures seemed to have tallied with estimates published by other UK/ US sources, so seem realistic enough.

    But no, despite how the media spin it for maximum clicks and effect, its not 500,000 Russian deaths. Still a shockingly huge number for a 2 year war, planned in advance, against an underprepared opponent. Just compare it to the figures from Chechnya for example - and I can remember the sense of Russia having been handed its ass there… it just seems that Putin has kept much tighter control of the media this time around. There'll surely be a reckoning when the real figures ultimately come out, and I wouldn't want to associated with Putin when it does.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,457 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    I very much doubt the Russians count their dead, into the mobile furnace, wood chipper or just left to rot.

    If they don't confirm the deaths they save a fortune on bags of onions.

    What are families going to do, take the state to court?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭ToweringPerformance


    Nobody with a brain believes the 500k dead figure, it's pure rubbish and that's fine and dandy if it makes people feel better about the war but just don't expect serious people to think it's real. It's impossible to get accurate figures of course but from some of the figures from respected analysts iv'e read the number of dead is between 150-170k with Ukraine suffering between 70-100k dead in battle.

    It doesn't matter either way the war is a complete tragedy for Ukraine all because of one deluded lunatic in Moscow.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,433 CMod ✭✭✭✭Ten of Swords




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,986 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Well, I guess that his own life might be at stake on the outcome, he'll fight to the last Russian, be they from Moscow and St. Petersburg or the republics.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,315 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Only people who know nothing about socialism as it was in the USSR except the asinine capitalist portrayals of same are codded by the Hitler Stalin alliance BS (this BS was not around during WWII because the USSR was a frenemy to the Western war mongers, the smear only took off after May 45).

    Nope, The "smear" was certainly around during WW2, or rather right before Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union and things got interesting.

    1939-daily-express-front-page-reporting-invasion-of-poland-by-soviet-E5GG74.jpg Adolf-Hitler-and-Stalin-sharing.jpg devils_3006863b copy.jpg 4584336_7.jpg

    It was very much seen as a dubious pact aimed at carving up bits of central Europe between them. In the end Hitler lost and Stalin ended up with even more imperial expansion than he would have dreamed of. The old European imperial powers died after WW2, or were in their death rattles. The old Russian empire under new branding was and remains the last of the old European empires left. An empire that required walls and barbed wire to keep people in. Not a good look.

    As for "Western war mongers"; maybe you've forgotten the US was quite the isolationist entity regarding European politics and war? They favoured the British, but mostly in lip service. Their reaction to France, the Low countries and everywhere else Hitler invaded was even more lip service, when they mentioned them at all.

    It is not possible to disagree more. Aside from the slapstick examples given, it did pretty well from its first ‘novice’ operation when it swung the 1948 elections against a very likely communist win in Italy. It is a secret police force that serves the interests of the real rulers of Empire, so everything we are told about it, a sensible person takes as deception. Its staff numbers, its budget- nope. Treat all such facts’ as three-card-trickery.

    Outside of Hollywood and Soviet/Russian paranoia and propaganda(hell I personally know a couple of Russians who are quite convinced the "CIA" was somehow responsible for Chernobyl) it didn't do very well at all. Just look at the wider results. How many South American nations leaned Left, or went full Socialist and/or sidled up to the Soviets in the Cold War, even with these CIA kingpins of regime change doing their thing? Ditto in Africa and South East Asia. They failed spectacularly in places like Iran too. Indeed one could argue the KGusedtoB was far more effective. Only it wasn't. Both most certainly took and take advantage of swings in their favour, but the swings had to be there in people to start with.

    It was 14-15000 in total. I took off 2000 for the fascist Ukrainian attackers who were killed giving a conservative 12,000 Russian speakers murdered. It had not been stopped despite Zelensky winning the election in 2019 because of a ‘promise’ to end it. You may think this 12000 is ‘tragic but no biggie in the big picture’ but the fact that this insane violence happened at all is the issue, a shell could land at any second eliminating your house, your family and you. That is living under psychological terrorism for 8 years. Things like that don’t happen by chance and murdering 12000 ethnic Russians is not a consequence free thing. And where did this accidental not deliberately-engineered massacre happen, oh it was on the border of the 2nd largest military power. Pull the other one.

    More like 4,500 Ukrainian forces killed, 6,500 Russian Separatist, the rest being civilians. How that breaks down into Pro Moscow/pro Kiev is up in the air. Unless you know of missiles that have one side only seeking capabilities.

    Oh and I never said it wasn't tragic, so that's more leading bollocks on your part. What I did point out is the vast majority of these deaths on both sides occurred between 2014-2016. A point you avoided mentioning. Well Kremlin spin tends to. I also asked you how many people, Ukrainians and Russians died in the year before Putin's invasion? You avoided that point too. I also asked you how many Ukrainians and Russians have been killed, injured, displaced since Putin's invasion? What did cities and towns in Donbas look like after eight years of "nazi Ukrainian shelling and mass murder", what do they look like now? Compare and contrast. And you had the irony free impulse to type "insane over-reaction"?

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,035 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If he starts drawing too heavily upon the denizens of places in Russia which actually matter, then he may only hasten his own downfall. The only way around that would be to convince those people, who live comfortable lives by Russian standards, that the war in Ukraine truly is existential, but I don't think he has so far managed to do this. Sure, he's repressed any open protest against the war for now, but I don't think he can repress the sceptical views that the younger, more cosmopolitan Russians must be harbouring in their hearts.



This discussion has been closed.
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