Russia-Ukraine War

Definitely something not right here

He is putting the fear into Putin because Putin knows, as we all do, that Trump is unpredictable.

Same with threatening NATO withdrawal, it was an attempt to force Western Europe to defend itself and pay for that, God couldn't make them do that.

Not sure what has changed specifically.

To attempt to change the regime of any country is never an obviously beneficial road to go down and predictions of the consequences are surely incredibly unreliable.

Personally I was initially reassured when Putin took charge from Yeltsin as I sensed he had intelligence and would be competent despite the difficult situation he faced in Russia.

I think I was not alone in that but his actions (whilst I accept that it is Russia's right to fight their corner) have been morally depraved and disastrous for his own country and others'.

I have little idea what will come after him but something surely will.

We still need to treat Russia with respect even if they do not deserve it because one day good people will probably emerge from the straight jacket they are now living under,admittedly not necessarily in the aftermath of Putin's demise (look at Germany)

Probably see Russians staging in Belarus soon, although there not any major cities within range of the border thankfully.

The US hasn't allowed it yet, but the list of countries not allowing it is growing smaller each day. If the US allows it, I doubt they would allow the cluster shells be used, which would be really unfortunate. But as you say, it pushes the staging and supply lines much further back.

Ridiculous situation where Ukraine has to sit there waiting until the Russians cross the border before they can fire on them.

Another domino falling

Part of me worries though that Ukraine are still getting their hands tied. Macrons words are extremely specific.

Just the missile launch sites. But not other military targets? Why not concentrations of troops? What about airfields that bombers are taking off from? Ammo dumps? Radars? AA installations? Command posts.

All of these are completely valid military targets. Why simply missile launch sites? That seems ridiculously narrow.

My hope is theres more going on behind the scene and this is just a tester for western countries to see how Russia reacts. Its understandable but Ukrainians are dying, their cities being bombed while we tip toe the red line.

Yeah I mean the worry is almost certainly either… Will Ukraine get desperate enough in future and bomb something truly escalatory. Or what will Russia do if Ukraine target a troop concentration and end up hitting civilians or something.

But it still doesnt make sense anyway. No matter what Ukraine do the Kremlin will claim that a UK supplied Stormshadow hit 3 million Ukrainian POWs and Russian children. And that the UK are responsible. Then they'll do nothing. As per usual.

I mean I hope you're right and I'm wrong. But he did put in the "not other military targets" in there.Whatever that's supposed to mean. I hope that we're on the verge of a real breakthrough and western leaders showing some real Churchillesque spine. But I'm doubtful they've managed to peel themselves away from the drip drip, non escalation baby steps policy we've seen to date.

I suppose we're going to find out together soon what Ukraine is actually allowed to do. Part of me wishes they just announced nothing and all of a sudden Russian ammo dumps and airfields start exploding.

The bully always threatens

The attack is unlikely to kill putin at the first attempt. It will only drive him underground forever. The only sure way to get rid of the rat is for someone in his entourage to kill him.

You're probably right but it might make him think twice or make it harder for him to control things.