A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

…we re actually still in a credit fueled property bubble, the difference this time is we ve moved further into institutionalised/corporatised debt, this is different than more individualised debt, as was the case prior to 08, the dysfunctions of the financial system have more than likely moved with this into these institutions and corporations, but if serious issues do arise, its very likely most of these would probably be bailed out, as they would be deemed too big to fail. the fallout of such could be tricky though, as you d have to wonder, how would the general public react to this, people are far better informed about such things, particularly since the 08 bailouts, and public anger is far greater, there more than likely would be serious public and political backlash.

we re probably playing with fire here, this is probably gonna get messy at some stage, but our current situation could go on for years, even decades, without a 08 like situation, we simply dont know…

this is an interesting, somewhat related chat….

https://player.fm/series/the-rhodes-center-podcast-with-mark-blyth/how-asset-managers-came-to-own-everything-and-you-failed-to-notice

Fed member says only rate cut to come in Q4

How much of a correction do you think there might be as a result of AI enthusiasm and exuberance running amok?

They are on about possibly hiking now. Could be 90 cents to the dollar come Christmas.

The US directly spent $14 trillion this century on wars and conflicts which gained absolutely nothing apart from creating the rise of terrorism, millions of dead, countries blown to pieces and millions of people fleeing to safety ( mainly Europe )

The only winners were the defense industry who received half of it.

$14 trillion invested for $0 return and to make matters worse they ****ing borrowed the money to do it.

Great post

I’d say you’re great craic at a party!

Iran could close the Hormuz Strait but will keep it open for now. Pushbike prices will be through the roof.

It's complicated (legally and politically) and like everything seems to be going step by step. The Ukrainians can now access interest from a certain date. Getting their hands on part or all of the 5 billion buffer may also happen. Eventually they may even get access to the original assets themselves, aka sell it to pay for reparations. Unfortunately (for them) we aren't there yet.

Some people think a recession is coming to the USA:

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/04/steve-hanke-says-the-recession-cometh

Others who think there’s still a high likelihood of recession:

• Jamie Dimon
• Gary Shilling
• David Rosenberg
• Peter Schiff
• Lakshman Achuthan (maybe)

In a perfect world maybe, but back in reality what they are doing is highly complex and has large legal ramifications.

This is international, there isn't some all encompassing framework with black/white rules that every country has signed up to. Hence they have to take it step by step. It's complex, legal and lengthy involving a myriad of factors, justifications, ramifications and multiple countries (including unprecedented actions). Then there's the entire political layer.

Russian oligarchs are already winning some legal cases, it would a nightmare if the West managed to seize the assets for rebuilding Ukraine only to have screwed up legally and lose cases after the fact.

Immunity of states and their property is international law. It is for the benefit of all states and individual property rights is for all people, one must be found guilty first not suspected of a crime before assets are seized.

Obviously if one jurisdiction breaks this, then other sovereigns and investors will move assets somewhere else because the same could happen to them. You could end up with a bank run on steroids who knows.

Article 21 ( c ) is quite clear.

Cool. Ukraine was invaded, what about it's immunity?

Exactly. Russia has completely flouted international law, however it's still expected that those nations allied against it's actions (pretty much most of the civilized world) to act with some legal backing, which is complex considering the nature of what's happened.

There isn't some manual that exists for this situation. Hence it's complex, lengthy and legal to eventually seize Ru assets and sell them to rebuild Ukraine.

» Obviously if one jurisdiction breaks this, then other sovereigns and investors will move assets somewhere else because the same could happen to them. You could end up with a bank run on steroids who knows.

Meh. If a country is choosing to invade another, sure, that country can move it's assets somewhere else.

Germany has a policy of being an economic etc basket case.