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Are we excited yet?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    As mentioned, people will take their BTC profits and put into alts, speculative but can be rewarding as higher profits can be obtained.

    Bitcoin, if it ever reaches 130k would take a long time, that’s 100% profit if you buy today. Whereas some alts could do 100% in a much shorter time, so people tend to take their profits made from bitcoin and gamble on alts.

    100% probably isn’t a great example as much less % profits are of course acceptable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,971 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I'm imagining myself selling my BTC because I think the market is topping, paying 33% CGT on the profits and then buying alts because I think BTC is topping.

    Well that was a brief thought experiment. I'll leave that sort of nonsense to others. I'm not sure that the BTC market is the same as the Alt market. Might as well claim money flows out of BTC into AI/Nvidia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    When I say people, I don’t mean like you and I, these are traders, and sometimes they are algorithms on a box. Their only sole purpose is to identify trends and make money, they don’t care what they are trading, if they identify a trend in the market they make a trade with a goal of getting in and out with a profit.

    Most, if not all of us on here simply buy what we believe is a decent crypto, hold for a while and sell for hopefully a profit. I’m not aware if anyone is actually a trader on here, some might do market analysis and trade based on that, but it is a tough job and not easy to make money.

    But even for you and I the information, such as BTC dominance and other trends is very useful to us, I hold alts as well and will be attempting to exit somewhere near the top, so all info can hold great value.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,078 ✭✭✭BKtje


    Retail investors have only recently (according to the graphs that i've seen) started pouring money in so they wouldn't be up by much so maybe not much profit to redirect into alt coins. This means that a lot of the money pouring into Bitcoin in the last 2 months is coming from ETFs which would not be able to pivot into alt coins easily.

    With things being significantly different this time around (ETFs). The fact that we are still very early in the bull market and that Bitcoin isn't halving for another 40ish days means that it is going to be hard to predict how this is going to go. The market top usually arrives months after the Bitcoin halving which would mean 4 months to go but with the way things are going I don't know (😁).

    I understand people don't want to go into alt coins because of CGT but not all countries have CGT. Switzerland, where I live, doesn't, meaning that everything I make (if anything) goes straight into my pocket (apart from being taxable as part of my net wealth). Better than the lottery as that is taxed heavily here after the first million 😅



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Also, in a tax scenario, if you make 100 profit from BTC you owe the taxman 33. Now if you were to put that 100 into an alt and make more profit you owe more tax but have more profit. If you lose 40 then you only owe the taxman on the 60 profit if in the same fiscal year, so there is a small incentive to use some the taxman’s money to speculate.

    Open to correction here, haven’t done the math but seems to make logical sense to me.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,257 ✭✭✭Grumpypants


    Money doesn't really flow out of bitcoin into Alts. What happens is the influx of money that thinks they missed the bitcoin boat look for the next bitcoin and flows into Alts pumping them. That's why there is usually a lag before Alt season starts. And that's anyone's guess what will take off. But the money made there should be moved into bitcoin and most of the Alts fade away to nothing.


    Likely flow will be a top in the next two - three weeks. Then when the halving happens a nice big drop of almost 30%. A summer of growth and an Novemberish top again that likely will be it for another few years.


    Once you hear the taxi driver talking about white papers on a new sure thing Alt sell up. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,652 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    The ETF’s are tied to bitcoin, you might get an alt rally but trading the limited BTC for anything is very risky. You could also get people trying to front run the eth and Sol etf’s. You know retail are already here when the sh*t coins pump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Yea, theres some junk being bought out there, even LUNC is up, not really complaining though as I still hold some, I was down 75%, now only down 50%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Bitcoin wicked at 69k, some amount of sell pressure there



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,078 ✭✭✭BKtje


    Up and down for Bitcoin but it seems to be slowly regaining after the sell pressure. Solana went up as well and seems to be sticking for the moment which is great news for me and people who hold Solana 😁

    ETH also at the races.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,779 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius


    Fitting for crypto to have a lot of 69 action...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭circadian


    Up 150% on Lunc, have loads staked so waiting to sell all my rewards in the first pump. Expecting to see it hit somewhere around half a penny, but I'll skim as it rises. Just need to figure out when to unstake as it takes 21 days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭deadduck


    this is the gist of it, and is how it's played out before, it's just traders working through the opportunities of profit as they see it;


    image.png

    of course the ETF's are a big factor this time, so it's hard to see as much money making it's way downstream as shown in this chart

    but like GrumpyPants says, this'll be offset somewhat by new users coming in, seeing something like Cardano (hopefully 😉) at less than a dollar, and saying "wow, maybe it'll be 70k some day too". how much it'll be offset by, time will tell...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭deadduck


    also, some places are already saying we're in altcoin season! not saying I agree with this, but it's certainly helps explain why users like antimatterx are taking some profits now;

    image.png image.png

    above from https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,533 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    Coinbase fucked up and had BTC/EUR down 20%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,810 ✭✭✭✭mickdw


    Jesus that's market manipulation



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,655 ✭✭✭endainoz


    Decent size correction today, was coming I suppose.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 387 ✭✭El festino


    How soon do we wait before buying again. Asking for a friend :-p



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,533 ✭✭✭antimatterx




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Yea, I just hit the unstake now, what makes you think it will rise? I only bought a good while back because back then the community seemed to become active and wanted to revive it, it’s one of my smaller gambles that I wrote off already, would be happy with just 50% down as I thought it was dead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,533 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    I'm a realist. Will Crypto be higher in 12 months, almost absolutely. Will it be higher within 3 months or so, I think there's good chance we see a huge flush out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Yea you could say we got screwed today, will probably take another couple of weeks before we have a shot at ath again.

    Rte radio actually mentioned bitcoin earlier, that’s one of the things about ath, it reaches a lot of mainstream media, it’s like free advertisement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Pullbacks are usually circa 30%, expecting greater than 50% seems a bit excessive



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,533 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    I think it will be on the back of the US entering recession. Aggressive pullback, but short lived.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,779 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius


    Still holding



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,614 ✭✭✭circadian


    The rising tide theory. It's not a small community and with increasing volume results in increasing burns from Bianance, driving hype etc. There's also NFTs and a few other things on that chain so there's a certain level of utility, regardless of how useless. More than what a lot of other meme coins have. $0.01 would be about a 60BN market cap on a coin like that, I don't think that's too crazy in a bull market.

    Like I said, I'll be skimming on the way up, I'll set targets to pull out when I feel it might be hitting a top. I'm sitting on about 75 million Lunc now after staking for ages. I've already sold off to cover my initial so I'm happy to ride the wave. It's not my only bag but as is typical with some of the alt coins there's potential for parabolic runs.

    What I do find interesting is how it behaves, it pumped before BTC in December, doesn't pump when BTC does. It could easily just dump and crash but with Binance holding such a large bag I don't see it happening.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    Btc did hit 60 in may 2021, then back sub30 a month later before going onto its ATH of 64 end of the year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    The price is irrelevant to me for the moment as I won’t be selling, however, if BTC reaches 30k again this side of the cycle ill buy both you and merix a bitcoin each.



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  • Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Everything back to being uncertain and FetchAI goes to new ATH

    Damn it for me not buying at 0.08 last year



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