Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

All irrelevant if you can't satisfy the 2nd rung of Maslovs hierarchy of needs. Accumulating wealth and worrying about your pension is far from the mind of the person that can't put a roof over their head or wondering where the money is going to come from to meet ever increasing rents.

Older people need to understand that their wealth is heavily based on the next generation being able to afford there assets when the need arises. Constant subsidies means all generations are taxed more to keep the mirage going

If you have most of nearly 2 generations locked out of housing, ecpect change whether we like it or not

I expect change. A material reduction in housing output as the private market totally loses confidence and a predictably inefficient public sector fails to pick up the slack. An associated increase in prices and rents follow.

An increase in taxes on younger people and a reduction in taxes on older people as wealth taxes are phased out. Property becomes an even more attractive store of wealth as it’s declared ‘not an asset’ and therefore exempt from taxation.

Young people will be scratching their heads wondering why voting for ‘change’ meant there were now fewer houses to buy, their rent went up and their net pay went down. Change can be change for the worse.

Time will tell!

Mad, because I wasn't aware they'd fallen!

I'd say that SF will be in power next time around. By 2030, the Irish electorate may finally understand that voting in globalist / neo-liberal lunatics and compradores is not going to change anything, even with a sprinkling of socialism and fake nationalism.

Back to the days of the local employer providing lodgings

We've come full circle

This happened in a number of the previous housing crises - the railways, Guinness, the DUTC (trams) etc built housing in the Victorian and Edwardian period; Bord na Mona in the 40s; I believe Liebherr down in Kerry did in the 50s, and even Semperit tyres built a block of flats in Ballyfermot in the 70s.

Well, those all built rather than bought; but still resulted in employer provided housing.

Welcome aboard the affordable rental model for workers lobby group train Dave

I’d love to see companies outbidding the state. Better to provide housing for the working than the non-working.

The middle class as we know it today it historically an anomaly. For most of human history across nearly all cultures, there was a ruling/martial class, some sort of clerical class and then everyone else. As globalism continues to erode the wealth of what we call the middle class, those at the top will gather up more and more. I've said it before, if something dramatic doesn't alter the direct of things in a fundamental way, living in modern tenements will be normalised here within a few decades. Maybe there's a reason why so many Science-Fiction stories envisaged future cities as dystopian, over-crowded nightmares...

It's sad. So much effort was made in the latter half of the 20th century to provide decent housing for the Irish people, and it's all be sold up a river for the sake of short-term profit.

It's a bit abstract. I would class someone as "middle class" if they are able to own their own home, support a family and have a reasonably comfortable life. Obviously, there are going to be variations within that group, and there's no clear line that can be said to divide upper and middle classes neatly.

In the European middle ages, most property was owned by a very small number of people. Those who worked the land almost never owned their land. Rather, they held it and worked it for the sake of their lord. This is an aspect of feudalism, though the system itself is fiendishly more complicated.

"would they now be above your typical middle class"

There's no "my" about it. I'm talking about something that is a recognised part of the social hierarchy. We can talk about things such the hypothetical that you mention and the article that you quote, but broadly speaking the rate of home ownership is declining here:

It actually went up in 2022, but the overall pattern is moving down. What's also worth mentioning is that many people classed as home-owners hold huge mortgages, so can they really be said to own their house? Well I'll leave that open.

I don't know if this was ever posted before but I thought you guys would find it interesting, seeing as it goes against most of the arguments on here.

The article - https://positivemoney.org/2019/09/bank-of-england-confirms-positive-money-analysis-of-house-prices/

The more detailed research - https://bankunderground.co.uk/2019/09/06/houses-are-assets-not-goods-taking-the-theory-to-the-uk-data/#more-5400

Interesting article but flawed analysis

It's correct that low rates are causing the rise in prices, incorrect to state this is not due to supply and demand. Cheap credit is a demand multiplier of sorts - that is house prices could be described simplisticly as:

Price = (demand/supply) * credit

More demand less supply and prices go up, equally more credit and regardless of supply-demand balance prices also go up.

But what were interest rates in the 1930s? Or 1997?

In the 30s UK rates were between 4 and 6%. 97 was around 6% also. The lifetime cost of a mortgage (and therefore the house) depends on interest rate also, not just the headline price. Unless you think a 300k house in Dublin is a steal even when interest rates are 10%?

Very very Simplified lifetime cost of mortgage would be:

Cost = principal * rate * duration

3 main factors then impacting actual price to acquire a house, with principal (advertised selling price) being just 1 of those. For BoE analysis to not look at lifetime cost of loans and instead only ratio of principal:income, is incredibly amateurish for what should be their bread and butter.

My ex used to work for Ryanair in Spain and lived in Ryanair provided accommodation. They move you to a different house every few months so you cant ever get any rights. Then after a year they ask you to get your own accomodation or you can move to yet another Ryanair house and pay even more rent. Not sure what rights you would get in Spain, but Ryanair are definitely ahead of it.

The study attempts to claim that shortage of houses plays no part in affordability crisis or price inflation - which is nonsense. There are multiple factors at play, interest rates are just one. Supply/demand is still true here - the article claims otherwise.

In UK sealed bids are less than 25% of sales.

Majority of sales are open bidding similar to ourselves.