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What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I can't imagine many US Presidents have been voted in our out based on foreign policy; if you know of any I'd be curious to know. While the reports suggest Trump is begging senators to block Biden's border bill because he doesn't want to give Biden the win. Supposedly manufacturing stats are in the pink and AFAIK the economy's doing OK at the moment? As to the approval ratings, well all sitting Presidents struggle to maintain popularity; I think only Bush II immediately post-911 ever managed significant numbers in the modern age? Open to correction there. And as has been said before, Clinton lead the polls throughout 2016. Yeah.

    Biden isn't the perfect candidate - but he doesn't have to be when the other guy's a howling antagonistic malcontent, one who already had 4 years in the job and achieved nothing ... and is now talking up his strategy of revenge & a sprinkle of dictatorship? Even if you buy into the "cognitive decline" angle, then sauce for the goose there 'cos you may find Americans would prefer a bog standard centrist corporate democrat losing his mind than Donald Trump doing the same in real time.

    Conversely if the GOP had the nerve to ignore the MAGA cult and give the nod to a stable centrist, Biden himself wouldn't stand a chance. Biden v. Haley would be a walk-in for the latter.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Also , "His policies on Immigration" - which are almost identical to the policies of the previous administration (absent the unnecessary cruelty), but the GOP never said a word about the border when they controlled all three branches , but the second the Democrats have any control over anything they start screaming about the "INVASION!!!!!!!"

    This is a chart showing "Apprehensions and Expulsions" by year for the last ~30 years

    image.png

    So - Biden has "Apprehended and Expelled" significantly more people at the border than Trump ever did , yet apparently it's a "disaster"

    The GOP use this increase in "interactions" to suggest that the "Brown Hoard" are invading the country, stealing jobs and raping women.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    He has had a similar border policy to previous administrations.


    He has effectively crippled one of the US's main rivals with no loss of American life.


    Yes whatever democrat is up is always the worst candidate and they would vote for any other candidate and we haven't heard this 100 times already.

    However the Republicans are getting better at theatre. Keying in on the word invasion for a group of unarmed people was a stroke of genius, sure any reasonable person would immediately realise they are being lied to as soon as the word invasion got brought up for immigration but it seems to have worked and gotten into people's heads.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,296 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I watched him for longer than that when he was here in Ireland, across multiple events - and I can honestly say I saw nothing to make me think he had any such issues. That was less than 12 months ago.

    I watched him give a speech from the White House lawn last summer, again more than 10 minutes, he was grand.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,328 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Russia were never a rival though. They were more a pain in the side. Either way, it's damned impressive that Biden has done so much damage to them with nothing more than hand-me-downs.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Haley might also have the advantage of being untried with the job. People know what a Trump presidency is like, and now a Biden presidency, so if they're not into either option then Haley might be worth giving a chance in some voters eyes.

    However, regardless of what a Haley / Biden competition would look like on it's own merits, I can't help but imagine what a Haley victory in the GOP primaries would unleash within the GOP itself and among Trump's cultists. Let's assume for the sake of disscussion that we have a situation where enough moderate GOP voters are sick enough with Trump to give their vote to Haley and thus the nomination. What would happen next?

    We know Trump doesn't just conceed defeat or do any of the normal stuff people are supposed to do when they lose a vote. I wonder if he'll do the same as he did for the 2020 vote, drag his heels, bring court cases against the RNC, or even pull a Jan.6 onto the registration of delegates at the end of this? Send a load of MAGA sicofants to try to derail the process? And *then what?* If Trump's gambit fails, the GOP vote is still likely split to the point that they can't hope to beat the Dems. If he succeeded in getting the GOP nomination by clearly facist means, then it would surely be clear to even the most policitally ignorant moderate voter that Trump cannot be the person they vote for.

    I wonder if this is a "damned if they do, and damned if they don't" situation, where a good showing by Biden may beat a Trump campaign, where-as any Haley campaign will likely be torpedoed by copious amounts of MAGA/Trump stupidity.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,328 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I don't think so. China is a rival but they've not been crippled.

    But yeah, the Trumpster narrative is weird. Biden is senile and yet runs rings around their rapist and initiates an economic boom for American industry. How bad must their rapist be to not be surging ahead in the polls?

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    If the GOP are the ones to squeeze Trump out then all hell breaks loose - I think he does all the things you suggest and either runs officially as a 3rd party candidate or just tells the MAGA core to not vote (or vote for him anyway) which screws whoever might be the actual GOP candidate because even if it only syphoned off 5-10% of the GOP vote that's enough to kill them in the swing states.

    I think if he's blocked via the 14th amendment (unlikely) then a lot of the same happens except maybe without the J6 redux happening at the GOP Party conference.

    Basically if Trump is not on the Ballot and is still alive I think the GOP are goosed because the true hard-core MAGAs are enough to lose them any election if they refuse to shift to whoever the new candidate is.

    Even if the new candidate promised that they would pardon Trump instantly on taking office to make the MAGAs happy (if he's been convicted) then that is enough to syphon off sufficient moderates and independents to lose them those swings States as well.

    There really is no scenario where the GOP have a real pathway here and it is entirely their own fault.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    Why are his approval ratings so low If he's doing a fantastic job?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    Also why does every criticism of Biden get countered with, but Trump.. I already said I don't think Trump is a good option. They're both terrible choices is my point. Trump still having a decent chance at winning is also due to Bidens failures.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Also why does every criticism of Biden get countered with, but Trump

    Well a) because it's the Donald Trump thread, the focus tends to be on him;

    and b) it's literally gonna come down to Biden v. Trump - so of course listing one man's aspects is gonna invite a contrary opinion.

    Trump indeed has a decent chance, but Biden's not a lame duck either & perceived "failures" are easily countered by things wot Biden has done, or just things Trump has not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭ronjo


    I am guessing 2 main things.

    1. Concern about his age
    2. Incumbents almost always have poor approval ratings around this time.

    Trumps were brutal, Obamas too.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Which is why the only sensible course of action by the GOP on January 7th 2021 was to have dumped Trump and cut him off. A bit of short term pain then, and possibly conceding 2024 with a bit of a whimper of a campaign, and they would be back quite easily in 2028 just due to the nature of the cycle of how elections everywhere switch between each party every couple of cycles.

    Instead they are stuck with Trump for this cycle and very likely still dealing with ghost of MAGA through 2028 as well as the GOP tears itself apart during the next cycle as Trump screams about fake something or other.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,410 ✭✭✭randd1


    At a guess I'd say it's because 1) you're on the Donald Trump thread, and 2) both men are vying for the same position, so comparisons are inevitable.

    So failures by Biden will always be countered by failure's by Trump. And in that regard, Biden wins on being much less of a disaster than Trump.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,328 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,235 ✭✭✭✭everlast75




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Largely it's the lag between reality and perception.

    It's taken a long while to overcome the dip in Confidence that Covid inflicted.

    The economy is doing well and has been for a good while , but that hasn't quite trickled down to "main street" quite yet but it's starting to.

    Prices had remained stubbornly high for goods and services despite the large drop in inflation and the growth in Industrial outputs etc. but that is beginning to change.

    The Consumer confidence index has begun to swing upwards over the last few months and is expected to continue to increase.

    image.png

    US Elections (like most) are always fundamentally about the money in peoples pockets.

    If the expected trend for the CCI continues though this year , Biden will benefit from that at the ballot box.

    And , as always we shouldn't infer that "I'm not happy with how things are going with the current Government" is equal to "I'm going to vote for the other guy".

    Because it absolutely isn't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    The economy didn't tank under Trump the first time so I don't see why it would now. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/12/14/assessments-of-joe-biden/

    Clearly most Americans don't feel he's doing a good job.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,235 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    A poll from The Hill showed 61% of people don't want Biden to run again while 53% don't want Trump to run. So are the American people all idiots for not noticing the brilliance of Joe Biden? Or could it be that as I said both candidates are terrible and it's a shame that Americans are left with 2 choices they don't want.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,296 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Trump overheated the economy when he got in, pumping in money to an economy that was doing well (after 8 years of Obama stabilising things post crash) and didn't need it. It was always due a correction and one would have happened in 2020 covid or not.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    It didn't "tank" under Trump but he didn't do a whole lot to improve it either - It was the slowest growing economy since Reagan and even before Covid utterly destroyed it the wheels were beginning to come off the growth. He was able to claim "all time highs/lows" for various factors because they were already at all time highs/lows from the previous administration - A touch of "The eagle and the wren" about his claims about the economy.

    The Oil price increases in 2021 can be directly linked to a Trump policy that locked in production levels which artificially held prices down while he was in office but suddenly spiked when his deal kicked in. Also the debt that he loaded on to the US economy from his tax cuts began to bite in 2021 and peoples take home pay got hit as the tax cuts for middle/low income earners that Trump gave in 2017 expired in 2021 - The tax cuts for Corporations and the wealthy were permanent though.

    Like I said earlier, it has taken time for the really growth in the economy to get down to "main street" in the US , but it's finally beginning to, which is going to be good news for Biden and the Democrats come election time.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,328 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    He also removed the pandemic preparedness office and spent the early portion of the pandemic coming up with racist names for the virus, spreading anti-vaxx nonsense (PLoS One id'd his X account as a significant source of anti-vaxx disinformation), and undermining Dr. Fauci.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,020 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Why did you believe the narrative that he was failing despite all the indicators otherwise?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,235 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,410 ✭✭✭randd1


    The economy didn't tank, mostly due his tax cuts which helped keep consumer spending high, and unemployment figures down.

    However, the knock-on effect of that was much less money coming in, which resulted in him expanding the US national debt by 7 trillion just in order to keep the US going, with public services, and by extension the poorest in the US, the worst hit.

    Covid played a role in debt amount as well in fairness to Trump. But again, had the cash been there in the first place it might have mitigated some of the economic problems. Not to mention his disbanding of the pandemic response plan, which also had an economic plan as part of the response. So in the end due to his economic policies, the US economy was hit harder than it should have been by Covid.

    That's on Trump as he was the one who made the decisions.

    And those polls are skewed somewhat. The Pew research company was founded by very strict conservatives and picks mainly form conservative areas, which tend to have negative views of Democrats at the best of times. It's a sad fact that in the US, pretty much every poll is pointless as they're al biased towards their side. A poll by a democrat leaning organisation would likely say Biden is doing a top job, and that Trump is a fundamental danger to the US (which he is).



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Here's the thing.

    I don't think anyone would fight you over the view that it would be much better all round if it was a pair of 50 somethings running for President.

    The US has a real problem with "Gerontocracy" in their politics - There are far far too many septuagenarians and octagenarians holding key positions across the board. It's something they need to fix as a priority.

    However , none of those 50 somethings have stepped up and taken on the challenge of running for those high offices so you have to deal with what's there.

    61% not wanting Biden to run and 51% not wanting Trump to run doesn't mean that those people won't vote for either of them - It just means that , given the choice they'd prefer someone younger/different.

    But when it comes down to a choice between only Biden or Trump there really isn't a choice.

    It's either :-

    Pick the decent guy doing a solid ,if unspectacular job but that's really a bit too old for the job.

    OR

    Pick the Criminal Fraud and Rapist who wants to be a dictator , who's also a bit too old for the job.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,235 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    As Joe says...


    "Don't compare me to the almighty... Compare me to the alternative"

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



This discussion has been closed.
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