The Great Big Weather Warning General Debate/Discussion Thread

DOCARCH · 21-01-2024 10:22AM #1

This (new) thread is for general debate of the merits and demerits of Met E weather warnings and discussion in relation to same, like, Met E got it right, Met E got it wrong, I have Yellow Warning...should be Red, I have a Red Warning...should be Yellow, etc., etc.

M.T. Cranium · 21-01-2024 02:03PM

I think it will unfold about as their warnings suggested it would. You can never expect a county-wide warning to verify 100% because of the size of counties and different exposures or even different weather conditions, but people should understand a county being included in red, for example, indicates that criteria for red alert will be expected to verify somewhere in said county during the period of validity.

I am trying to issue alerts and warnings based on specific target areas when feasible but even so, the county by county approach generally works if people blend that with what they can see on a radar screen or satellite image, larger counties like Galway should perhaps be divided into two or even 3-4 sectors, smaller counties work better.

Before anyone suggests forecasts too extreme, keep in mind (posting at 2 pm) worst of storm is expected to be 4 to 9 pm. So it's too early to say if orange or red alerts were justified. Orange already validated in a few places.

Anyway, now we have a post in this thread.

dsmythy · 21-01-2024 02:53PM

They have been experimenting with adding north west east south into the warning text. If you live in the county the warning should trigger you to read the text and judge how close the action might be to you. Even adding the word coastal before the county should help. Especially for counties like Meath with their little bits of coasts.

aidanodr · 22-01-2024 02:04PM

Pee'ed off people from SLIGO on NewsTalk / Andrea Gilligan there discussing Storm Isha BUT also flagging Storm Jocelyn .. asking the Q WHY Sligo was not red last night and is not orange tomorrow evening/night. All saying Isha was worst storm they ever experienced in Sligo and with the damage there should have been red and that Joyelyn for Sligo should be orange .. esecially seeming they are between donegal and galway/mayo which again are orange tomorrow evening

.Donegal. · 22-01-2024 02:29PM

I think the way the met office in the UK do it is better instead of just issuing it on county alone metric. Others will disagree fair enough.

My biggest whinge about M.E is them not including gust speeds any more. For instance, yesterday just about eclipsed red level for gusts. But if another Darwin or 1998 storm came along which far exceeds yesterday’s total you wouldn’t be able to tell that it’s another level extreme storm compared to yesterday. The difference between 130km/h to 170/180km/h is massive but with the current set up you’re none the wiser unless you’re a weather freak.

It’s mind boggling to me why they stopped including that. They did it for as long as I can remember.

Robwindstorm · 22-01-2024 10:20PM

Brilliant thread for debate Docarch.

I believe there is a new super computer from Iceland coming into action soon which will greatly help met eireann. There is also going to be a new flood forecast division in the coming months so that should improve any rainfall warnings. Despite all these computer models forecasting, it has been noted that they all have been preforming poorly these past few months in a review, maybe its due to abnormal sea temperatures lately.

Anyway, for me , I find the main problem is the wind warnings. I would scrap the land yellow warnings completely and only use them for marine forecasts . Issue orange and red warnings during a named storm using similar boundaries to that of the met office . Give approximate mean and gust speeds but these would not define colour, as a 110km gust in August in the height of tourism season Could be orange, while in winter termed a very windy day. I would utilise the weather Advisory much better by giving advanced notice of possible severe weather and then upgrade or downgrade them as appropriate. Replace these yellow wind warnings with 'very windy' and there might be no cry Wolf situations. That's just my opinion.

Akrasia · 23-01-2024 06:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121656896#Comment_121656896

Yellow warnings are handy too for people responsible for planning events. For example, if you're arranging a camping event for a troop of beaver scouts, you might not want to do that in a yellow wind warning, while older scouts could relsh the challenge but would need to do some extra prep

spookwoman · 23-01-2024 02:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121654404#Comment_121654404

The flood map is very good for the UK, they could do the same with map alerter here. Hope they do the same here when they get it up and running rather than just the randon ico on a big a map that doesn't really defines area's that are at risk

Robwindstorm · 23-01-2024 11:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121657660#Comment_121657660

I agree with the situation re camping scouts etc but that's where there's a problem with the yellow land warnings. Met eireann are proposing to up the criteria for wind by 5kph to cut down on the number of yellow warnings in particular. However the actual windspeeds in our storms are lower than storms of the 80s and 90s and even these recent storms struggle to hit their forecasted targets as syran's charts show. That's why I think 100kph gusts in August in the middle of camping or other outdoor events, would merit an orange storm warning or at least a weather advisory. The same windspeeds in midwinter with bare trees and less outdoor activities could be considered a very windy day and no need for warnings .

Robwindstorm · 16-05-2024 02:40PM

Another yellow warning, this time for thunderstorms. Theses warnings are also given in a 'Nowcast' forecast, constantly updating throughout the day, adding counties etc. Most of the population have got their forecast from the previous evening or off erratic phone updates from various weather websites. Surely a forecast including scattered thunderstorms is sufficient and leave the warnings to something more severe. I agree with Alan o Reilly from Carlow Weather, scrap the yellow warnings to alleviate 'weather warning' fatigue. That's just my opinion, what do you guys think?

kksaints · 30-05-2024 08:08PM

Just on the Thunderstorm warnings having seen a Yellow and Orange warnings, I'm just wondering what sort of conditions would warrant a Red weather warning for Thunderstorms?

Supercell · 31-05-2024 12:03PM

My 2c, not that anyone cares in Glasnevin, but if I was King of Met Eireann I'd do away with warnings by county boundaries and let the forecaster draw the impact boundary line that they feel is as accurate as possible in their expert opinion.

I'd also do away with yellow warning, just orange for strong possibility of severe weather and red for batten down the hatches.

ZX7R · 31-05-2024 12:52PM

The colours of the warnings are here to stay, as long as met earann are part of Meteo alarm group.

Change the criteria for each colour which was done recently.

County warning would suffice if a text alert system was brought in given warnings to areas where most destructive weather was heading in thoess areas at a short time notice so to say.

That's what I receive where I live now in Poland.

Jpmarn · 31-05-2024 11:03PM

I would like to see bigger counties split up for warning purposes. Cork should be split 3 ways, North, West and East. Galway and Limerick could be split East and West. Tipperary could be split North and South. Mayo and Donegal could also be split.

sryanbruen · 15-11-2025 10:46AM

Bumping this thread given the relevance of it right now with "Storm" Claudia.

I never usually comment on these warnings as I'm in the "better to be safe than sorry" camp but personally, I never seen Dublin getting the rainfall warranted for an orange warning. The synoptic just didn't suggest that to me with an easterly wind and the shallow placement of the low. I literally said this to a friend a day prior (with evidence). Either needed to be placed further north or deeper with a greater temperature contrast.

I was working in a school yesterday and the number of parents bringing their kids home early out of sheer panic was unbelievable. For a bit of rain? Have we become this much of a nanny state that a bit of rain now warrants going home early? I'd understand if you were in a flood conducive area or there was more severe conditions but there wasn't and there was never going to be for north Dublin. You have localised trees down and usual spot flooding but they come and go with most soft or windy days. It's far from a widespread scale.

The wind was more noteworthy than the rain but even that was only because it's an easterly wind which strong easterly winds are rare to come by and obviously the east coast is more exposed to them than the usual west or southwesterlies.

100% we should have a more localised warning system like the UK do rather than the county by county due to how much variation can occur in one county boundary alone. For instance, the south side of Dublin was expected to receive much greater impact than the north due to heavier orographic rainfall and run off from hills and mountains compared to the north side. This event barely even warranted a yellow rain warning for the north side, never mind orange.

And then the sheer media coverage for this lacklustre event just because the capital was the one being impacted was ridiculous. Seen far less coverage and talk for more severe events.

finlma · 15-11-2025 11:06AM

Maybe there needs to be more clarity but the warning yesterday was clearly because of the risk of flooding and not the actual wind/rain itself. There was certainly no need for panic and taking kids out of school. I still think the warning is important to allow sandbags delivery and preparation for flooding in specific areas. So maybe the warning should have stated the risk was related to flooding only.

Thunder87 · 15-11-2025 11:11AM

The simple reality is we have a very benign and mostly very safe climate yet have increasingly adopted American style dramatised weather coverage more suited to the genuinely dangerous tornado/hurricane/blizzard events they have, so every "event" gets overhyped and built up days beforehand to a ridiculous degree when 99% of the time it just ends up an unpleasant wet or windy day

Hard to know how it fix it now this system is in place though, everyone is used to being wrapped in cotton wool and having the country shut down when it's forecast to maybe get a bit windy so if ME roll back they'll get all sorts of criticism

sryanbruen · 15-11-2025 11:26AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123989821#Comment_123989821

There 100% needs to be better clarity and a revision of the whole system. The warning has rain in the name and if you look at the criteria for "rain":

Rain Amounts can be up to double on windward upper slopes & impacts vary depending on for example soil moisture deficits.	30mm – 50mm in 6 hrs or less 40mm – 60mm in 12 hrs or less 50mm – 80mm in 24 hrs

Nothing about flooding there or impacts in the criteria, solely rainfall amounts in particular time periods. Obviously flooding was mentioned as an impact because well… that will naturally happen with a lot of rain falling. Flood warnings are a separate entity not available in the public domain.

sryanbruen · 15-11-2025 11:42AM

By the way I must stress that I'm trying not to come across as narcissistic. If you were affected negatively by this event, that's unfortunate and hope things improve quick.

magicbastarder · 15-11-2025 02:02PM

I have often thought that carping about weather alerts sometimes comes across like claiming people were stupid for paying house insurance and not actually having had to claim.

From what I've read, rainfall totals over the Dublin mountains have exceeded 100mm and the council are 'monitoring' the Dodder. That's more than yellow territory, yellow basically means 'the weather will be shyte'.

The Great Big Weather Warning General Debate/Discussion Thread

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