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Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    All polling since the election has them up - significantly - since the last election; but the last poll is three months ago now, pre strike and pre other impacts of a bad Winter exacerbated by no Stormont.

    That comes at the expense of the UUP and TUV. SF are also up, at the expense of the SDLP who also seem to be losing support to Alliance.

    The DUP could do vastly better and still come second.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    He has already said that about public pay. As for joint authority, even Alloance are very clear it cannot happen. Roi involvement is clearly outlined in Belfast agreement.

    anyhow it is looking like we are heading back to Stormont next week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    If the rumours tonight are true then the bartering may have paid of handsomely for every single person in ni.

    if the dup have got what is being rumoured then it is truly remarkable. More than I expected. But the rumours may well not be true



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Oh please downcow.

    Stop trying to turn an absolute rout into a victory. It is ridiculous.

    Unionism/Loyalism now turning on and devouring itself is the final ignominy and there is more to come as the sellout happens.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I was not even discussing the issues within political unionism. It’s is inevitable there will be a very open mini war in the coming days.

    I was simply saying that IF the rumours are true then Donaldson has achieved stuff none of us really thought he had a chance of.

    IF true the uk gov has made an enormous move for Northern Ireland - I honestly didn’t think they would - and still doubt it until I see it laid out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    the OP, Brexit impact on ni. If (and I don’t know) this is true then it has a big stabilising effect on NI and definitely reduces the Brexit impact on ni.

    if true then this was certainly worth the 2 years out of Stormont. Never mind the £3b etc etc.

    tbh the biggest concern was the out of control nature of increasing gb divergence creating a more significant trade border This would be reassuring, if true

    It will be strange if true as most have been disagreeing with Donaldson that the talks were ongoing.

    rumour has it that something is coming from EU as well.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,937 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Go on ahead, wee son. Stick the predictions down now so you can't make post-hoc claims.

    What exactly do you think the DUP will have achieved that make 2 years without Stormont worthwhile that isn't immediately more than counteracted by the damage causes by Brexit they campaigned for?

    What have the DUP achieved that is better for your precious Union than the situation that existed before they blew their load trying to put a hard border back on this island? A goal they spectacularly failed at.

    Take your fig leaf and paint it as a victory all you want, but at least have the spuds to come out and say it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,109 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    They may not. And, not to be offensive, but you have a bit of a track record in this thread of hailing rumours as heralding a great victory, and the rumours turn out to be not entirely true.

    You need to bear in mind that somebody is circulating this rumour for a purpose. The newspaper article is paywalled to me, but I note that it's in the Telegraph, which tells me that this rumour most likely comes from someone high up on the Tory right. The "sacrifice Brexit freedoms" language tends to reinforce this suspicion. So, you ask yourself, why would someone high up on the Tory right be circulating this rumour?

    I see two possibilities. One, this is someone who is opposed to Sunak and wishes to undermine him, so they promote a rumour that he is about to sell out Brexit freedoms. On social media we've already got the usual suspects saying that this proves that the WF was, all along, a sinister EU plot to ensnare the UK and subjugate it to the EUSSR jackboot, etc, etc, so this is a well-trodden path.

    The other is that this is from someone close to Sunak who is trying to create space for the DUP to go back into the assembly by "bigging up" whatever measures Heaton-Harris has offered the DUP.

    On either of these views, GB's impending tilt towards closer alignment with the EU may in fact be quite modest, but is being sold for political reasons as major. I'd wait for the details of the governments intentions to be made public before either hailing this as a victory or dismissing it as a marginal tweak. You can assume that the leak is an attempt to manipulate you, and in general you should resist such attempts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,304 ✭✭✭tomhammer..


    How many billions are we talking

    The original 3bn isn't big money to the UK



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    play the ball not the man.

    Brexit is bad for ni. On that we agree.

    I wish Brexit had not happened and I remain angry with the DUP (and others) for sleeping at the wheel and supporting this.

    I am though very glad that the unionist people have held their feet to the fire, against the advice of apparently everyone.

    you seem angry in your post, but just to be clear, I repeatedly said IF in my post, as I believe this is too good to be true. The report says that many in Rishis party are very angry about this move. That’s quite an achievement. Better late than never.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I don’t disagree with anything in your post. I thought my post was very clear about my doubts that this is fully true. If true, then the dup have certainly found a big ladder to assist them out of the hole they dug themselves into.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    It’s big money to ni. That’s like somebody giving the island a £12billion bonus on top of the annual £50billion+.

    but you are right that it’s not that much to the uk - exactly why there remains few who would vote to leave the uk.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,937 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Not angry at all, Downcow. Amused at yet another one of your vague, 'in the know' predictions that you refuse to expand upon.

    Given your track record on these predictions, I'm not surprised that you keep vague to be honest.

    I'd happily play the ball, except your usual tactic is to leave the ball at home but tell us what a great goal you're going to score.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Listening to the chatter I think if this deal was any good it would already be public.

    I suspect it is so weak that Unionists might yet again be the first to reject it.

    We are about to see which faction is strongest in Unionism I suppose.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,937 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    The mouthy end of Unionism will reject absolutely anything because there's nothing short of a border on the island and no SF First Minister that would be acceptable to them.

    Fortunately, despite the noise they make, I don't believe for a second they make up the majority of Unionists. I think the numbers are substantially smaller than the noise level would imply; boasting about 50 old people signing their latest petition is a far cry from the numbers Paisley et al used to get out on the street.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I absolutely believe that Foster was happy with both a deal on the Irish Language and on Theresa May's deal.

    That was enough to end her political career.

    That is what I mean by 'which faction will win out?'

    Will Jeffrey be another Arlene or will he have the cojones to defeat the hardened bigots within his party - then there is the twisting of those outside the DUP, can they derail the train?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,970 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Have a read of this, funnily enough the analysis reminds me of old-style Fianna Fail, under CJH and Bertie. All else could fall apart but as long as the party faithful vote were behind you, you would get away with it and possibly thrive.

    There are a lot of political parties - old FF, PBP, Solidarity, SF and the DUP - who are not in politics for what they can achieve for the people, but what they can achieve for themselves or for some unattainable fantasy goal. Remember, also, in the domestic context in Northern Ireland, they haven't collapsed Stormont yet for as long as Sinn Fein did, it might appeal to some of their voters that they beat Sinn Fein at that too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    who are not in politics for what they can achieve for the people, but what they can achieve for themselves

    😁😁 The Dáil stuffed with millionaires and landlords and you come out with this - hilarious.


    Fine Gael is by far the richest political party with all 50 TDs having a combined wealth of €80m.

    To paraphrase Mrs Merton, 'So what attracted you to the party of millionaires?' 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I posted the newspaper article. I know no more



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    That’s the TUV you are referring to. No one else believes that, and they are tiny



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,937 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    A bit of a puff piece all round that does more to highlight the balls that is NI politics as a whole than any grand master plan of aul Jeffrey.

    I'd love to know when you think FF moved out of the, 'what they can achieve for themselves' crowd, I've yet to see it. I'd firmly agree with having both SF and DUP in that camp; division in the North is a tremendous vote winner for both to keep snouts in troughs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,937 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    If that's all you've got, then you're massively overselling things as usual.

    Them and the usual crowd of online mouthpieces; empty jugs like Bryson's multiple accounts, Moore Holmes et al.

    For the record, the post you're quoting here was defending more mainstream Unionism, not criticising it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,101 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I am not overselling anything. I was simply quoting the rumours that appeared in the newspaper, and I said they were probably too good to be true.

    no idea why I am irking you



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You were practically salivating and organsing the Triumphant Arrival Of Jeff Into Belfast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,503 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Any word on if the new deal passes the tests which the DUP had previously set out or have they been quietly set aside?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    For that to happen there would have had to have been a renegotiation with the EU which includes us.

    Unless the government have been accommodating the DUP in secret and in cahoots with every other member of the EU that hasn’t happened. So the tests are not a factor if a deal has been done.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I guess it's politics, the British Gov will have to find something to give Jeffrey to help save some face but how it will be squared against the 7 tests remains to be seen. Not sure how much patience the British Gov have left at this stage though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,503 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    The question was mostly rhetorical but I was genuinely wondering if the test had been mentioned recently by the likes of Sammy. It's amazing how they were so important not so long ago but seem to have disappeared.

    It just proves that the idea that Donaldson has achieved something in this is extremely misguided, he missed all his original targets but a new set of goalposts are being set up so he can say he scored.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,113 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You’ve hit the back of the net yourself.

    An abysmal few years for the Unionist body politic and I fancy it ain’t over yet.



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