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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Economics are different for investment funds than an individual BTL landlord. Only for funds does it make sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Even for funds it would not make sense. There management costs are away higher, again they would want a 10% ROI

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Pension funds do not get 10% ROI on residential property. That is nonsense. And yet they still do regularly invest in REITs or property ownership themselves.

    The risk is managed by having a large portfolio of units. Costs like legal, furnishing etc (most are barely furnished) are reduced per unit due to buying in bulk.

    And even with RPZ and 2% max increase, there is still capital appreciation too. Rates are only going one way from here and that is down, cost of borrowing will drop and asset prices will continue to climb.

    And large funds do not have financing arrangements anything similar to a BTL mortgage. Not comparable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    First home scheme (shared ownership) ramping up into election year.

    The report shows continued strong interest in the Scheme, with 3,196 buyers approved and 1,255 homes already bought using the Scheme. Of the 1,255 homes bought, 1,118 were bought in 2023 and 137 were bought in 2022 (the Scheme having commenced operations in July 2022




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    No they fo not have financing arrangements line BTL, but they need to generate pension returns of 5% to people investing.

    No new house goes Upminster value innthe first 2 years. There is usually a reduction in value. That was shielded the last 10 years by increasing house prices.

    Houses are like new cars they reduce in value the day you buy them. They no longer can avail of HTB schemes and an element of wear and tear enters the scenario as well. Finally pension funds now can really only sell the houses to other pension funds so this will have an effect on value as well.

    To generate a 4-5% return to a pension holder funds will need to cover all costs from the plumber and painter to fund management fees and everything in between.

    A first day investment by an individual through a broker will cost 1-4%, this is often no longer paid by the individual but paid for by pension funds, the pension fund provider will take there 1-2% a year on the total value of the fund. If this house is totally owned by the pension fund that is 5600/ year or nearly two months paid rent by your calculations.

    If its 75% leveraged it's 1400 euro probably less. Leveraging interest rates are as high as BTL to rates

    . At present with positive interest rates funds can access decent bond rates from AAA rated companies and banks. Do not always think big is beautiful

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Yet the funds are still investing in Irish property in large numbers. Which would suggest either you know better than them and they're wasting hundreds of millions of euros, or they disagree fundamentally with your analysis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Not an uncommon scenario in today's world that Bass et al would have more business acumen than the financial industry

    Post edited by Villa05 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Are they ? They slowed down alot of apartment block developments they were at last year. The government and housing organisations took over some of them. They definitely not buying one off houses being build to any great extent unless they have LA or Corporate contracts in place.

    Why would the buy a house costing 560k and rent it for 3k, when they walked away from apartment developments where 2 beds were going to cost them less than 300k with rents of 2.5k++ and a yield of 10%

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    It's a devil's bargain, if you ask me. Take his shilling, and he'll want his pound.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Is the first home scheme still simple interest? I thought it was a great deal if you could get it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Apartments lost a big chunk of value when rates rose. The capital depreciation in this case hurt a lot of funds and REITs. Just look at the valuation writedowns for IRES last year.

    Also the cost to build apartment blocks has risen significantly, which impacts viability. That's the cause of slowdown, funds do not want to pay over the odds for apartments at a time of high rates, building costs can't come down much, so projects get shelved.

    Houses hold value better and appreciate better also. The new builds in D17 will only go up in value for the next few decades, because individual buyers still see houses as attractive, apartments less so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Reinflating the property bubble was a deliberate effort so it is a lot more than just an I'm Alright Jack.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    True, but they're not mutually exclusive either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Half of the of the discussion on the last two pages of this thread has been about one particular development being bought in bulk this week. So yes, they certainly still are purchasing large blocks of units. So their accountants must disagree with you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    One wonders why nothing has been done on these measures over the last 5 to 10 years while every measure implemented drove up prices and rents.

    Government who list housing and inflation as there top priorities can't be taken seriously

    One possible solution offered by the ESRI is directing construction activity towards housing and away from other activities such as office space, hotels and car parks


    The report also suggests that “certain construction skills be added to the Critical Skills Employment Permit (CSEP) to facilitate certain types of inward migration”.


    Its report also noted that there are close to 84,000 vacant homes across the country according to Geodirectory’s Q4 report in 2022.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Because the people who run the state deliberately reinflated the property market and have no desire whatsoever to see their "progress" reversed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Thats a large part of it. But they're going to suffer for it at election time. 69% of Irish people apparently back SF's goal of reducing the average Dublin house price to €300k, including 63% of people who agree with it even if it means a decline in the value of their own property [1]. Those are huge majorities for what on the face of it is a very radical, extreme policy - deliberately aiming for a 20%+ drop in house prices is not normally a vote winning policy.

    The problem FF & FG seem have to overlooked is that incredibly high rental and housing prices don't just screw renters (ie young people whos votes they don't care too much about), they're screwing hundreds of thousands of older middle class home owners who have their 20something and 30something children now living with them too - and those older people are core FF/FG voters. And lots of the 'young' renters are now entering their late 30s and 40s, when they would traditionally have become home owners and FG/FF voters, but thats no longer happening.

    The goal of restoring house prices somewhat from the depths of the market was probably sound politically for the 2011-2016 government, but from 2016 onwards, ie the duration of our current and last government, aiming for continual house price inflation has been very very bad policy. Damaging for the country, damaging for the people, and even damaging to FF and FG themselves.

    [1]https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/poll-public-backs-mary-lou-mcdonalds-call-for-300000-average-house-price-in-dublin/a1386646140.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,337 ✭✭✭The Student


    I don't agree I think it goes much deeper than that. We have a societal issue that no one wants to address. We have an "entitlement" culture and no one wants to take the tough decisions to address this. If we look specifically at housing (as it relates to this forum).

    The state has left the private sector deal with the housing situation because the State is incapable of dealing with social housing and the issues that come with it. I fall within SDCC and we have I think the figure was either 40% or 60% of social housing tenants under all of the different schemes (HAP, RAS etc) are in rent arrears. So if we just look at this as an example these rental rates are set at the differential rates (which take account of the income people earn, the make up of their family etc) and yet they are in arrears.

    I don't have any breakdown of the figures regarding how long/how much people are in arrears but the fact that there are so many would suggest that the system is not working either people feel no consequences of not paying or underpaying rent or the figs need to be revisited.

    If you privatise any product/service then there is always going to be a profit motive otherwise why do it?

    Why should someone be able to go on the housing list once they reach 18? Should they not make the effort to house themselves and if they can't then they can go on the housing list? By all means there will always be a small number of people at 18 who need support because of family issues etc.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,386 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    How many hoses would have being build if construction costs were/are not covered. there was little or no building in 2013/14 as the price a builder woild get for a house would not cover the cost. You could buy apartments in Limerick for less than 50K could you build apartments for 50k/unit even single bedroom ones ?

    A daughter of a lad I know was renting in Dublin he visited her in 2014 and a house accross the street was for sale for 160K he wanted her to get a mortgage and he give here the balance to buy it. She did not the house increased by 100k in 18-24 months and was probably still below cost of construction

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Every time I've brought it up there is push back here but in light of the decision to take outstanding child maintenance money from sw/wage payments I see little reason for those availing of subsidised housing to have the outstanding payments deducted from SW/wages as a condition of inclusion



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    For many private LLs the question is no longer profitability, it is all about avoiding potentially ruinous liabilities. The way gov't has used tenant-related legislation to force all the problems onto private actors has finally come home to roost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Ze Germans are coming

    Good little Irish renters, got to keep the German pensions funded somehow



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    If the taxpayer never bailed out Anglo, would that bank have gone under also. They were on the list of high risk back in March also

    Wasn't it worth it taxpayers!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its absolutely bonkers that they aren't. If the state is providing your income directly, and the state is providing your housing in addition, and you're behind on your rent... surely it would take very little effort to take any rental arrears (or just the rent in general from the start..) directly out of your income.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Dunno the legal background but docking any sort of benefits in Ireland is basically a no-no. Even court-awarded fines are usually unpaid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 641 ✭✭✭J_1980


    German here:

    Well you Irish left wing losers can leave the EU if you want? It’s not a cherry picking thing. The EU is a free market union explicitly protecting property rights. It wouldn’t work any other way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Is this post supposed to be ironic?

    German property rights and rental rules are some of the most restrictive in the EU.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 641 ✭✭✭J_1980


    German property rights are not “restrictive”

    social housing and housing benefits are far less abundant than in Ireland.



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