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Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,034 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    do you really think that trump would stick to any such agreement?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,478 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, I think the threat of jailtime might be a factor.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,413 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Biden is never offering a pardon, this is silly. He would definitely not offer one in return for what is essentially a political favour.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,558 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody



    Don't really see it honestly; he'd be 84 for next run as president and if he fails this time around (second loss in a row) I simply don't see the Republican party to row in behind him for a third attempt (and none of the other Trump family are worth to even consider; any normal candidate would rip them to pieces). That's already a theme now that "next generation" should take over and if Trump gets another 4 years of ranting (and swerving more extreme) + court cases completed against him I simply don't see him being in a stronger position and the party knows it. The only deal that can be struck is for this year; and the only thing Trump would care for is all the state cases (as he believes he'll win the president being the narcissist he is; what ever he thinks is true etc.) and that's not something that's likely (or possible) to agree to. I think he'll run into the wall in another failure and either way keep the grifting going to pay for the lawsuits even after the election is over to line his pockets and he'll go to his grave claiming fraud (with Jared trying to claim he was assassinated, ask for money for a state funeral/investigation and fail completely to become Trump 2.0 in his attempt to get into congress/senate).



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,478 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Neither do I, but Trump is unlikely to be willing to face the ignominy of a USSC ban on him standing. So if it is apparent as a possibility, then he may see that another option will be less unacceptable - like Biden also dropping his candidature.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,034 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Oh i am sure he would accept an agreement. He wouldn't stick to it though and I dont think they can put such conditions on a pardon anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,034 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    to answer my own question a pardon cannot be revoked once completed so such conditions on a pardon are not possible.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,333 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Hopefully academic but does double jeopardy apply to presidential pardons ?

    Because Trump will continue offending even after he is pardoned I would imagine.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 30,413 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    If you continue to offend it is not double jeopardy to try you again. You can not pardon future offences.

    If he is pardoned it is impossible to try him for the offences for which he was pardoned.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    A lot of the recent media statements about Trump seem to centre on a pardon for him. Given how the two other GOP members who've tossed their names into the candidacy pot have posited giving Trump clemency for prior offences, is there any chance that the proposition could split other GOP factions even further apart? They have to be aware of that risk for the GOP. I assume that Trump will probably publicly label them as RINO's.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,004 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    lads, no one is pardoning Trump. Definitely not Biden and there’s even less chance Hailey or de Santis get the chance.


    Trump is going to take the GOP nomination and the general is a coin flip. It’s terrifying, but it’s the reality.


    The only thing that stops it is a major health event for Trump and I don’t believe we’ll be that lucky.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    That has to be the most important fact facing the Democrat voters. Either they turn out in force at state level to prevent local state GOP party members from cooking the electorate voting books and the electorate voting systems before and after the vote days AND turn out in record numbers on the days where voting is allowed. Take full advantage of the GOP splits, and check for "fake" splits set up by the GOP candidates to fool the Democrats into thinking the GOP will do themselves to death over Trump.

    The local state GOP parties have form for electoral fraud attempts: rigging electoral areas to disenfranchise voters, fiddling around with the proofs required by electors to prove they can vote on the day, closing ballot stations and altering closure times, preventing voters from being driven to the ballot stations. If Trump wins after all he's done, The Democrats will have done as much dis-service to the US as the GOP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    The autopsy of polls taken of GOP voters in the days after the CNN debate between DeSantis and Haley in Iowa on the 10th [tenth] Jan next and the appearance by Trump at the Foxnews event on the same day in Iowa [as he declined to join in the debate with them] should be good, maybe even useful as a guide to how genuine GOP party voters [not faction members] see Trump and those other two candidates standing against him when it comes the future casting of their ballots.

    Unfortunately I don't have CNN available to me to watch DeSantis and Haley together to see how much energy they spend on each other and how they get past one obvious question from the host: are they serious about engaging with Trump to get him take a pardon while stepping aside from his third bid for office! I haven't got a clue whom Fox has pencilled for its event in Iowa but suspect Trump [and his lawyers] will have gotten guarantees for a trouble-free Q&A session from the network.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭breatheme


    Is he going to skip all the debates, or just the Iowa one?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,558 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I don't think he'd dare to skip the presidential debates but he's skipping all republican debates because he's so far ahead it's a waste of his time to open him up to look like a fool (and he can get more money that way from other engagements).



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,004 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    He won’t debate Biden if he gets the nomination. He can only lose popularity that way. He shouldn’t have done it last time either, he looked like a complete tool in every debate.


    He’ll make excuses about the liberal media, including Fox, being biased against him for asking questions.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,558 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I think his ego will not allow it as he'll be called a coward (and that's the nice version) for not daring to discuss policy etc. when it's no longer only sycophant media interest in the game. I agree he'll try to stay out of it but I don't think he'll be able to after the first missed debate; esp. if they let Biden do a solo show with a curator asking him policy questions etc. Keep in mind in his world view he did great in the previous debates he was part of as well; reality has nothing to do with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,050 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    What party would Jewish voters in the US usually support?

    That conflict is going to drag on until election time



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Trump declared his position on Israel by moving the US embassy there to Jerusalem, which should have been a feather in his cap for domestic votes. Take what one wants from Trump's "all over the place" foreign policy decisions. If he thinks there's a chance of a vote in it for him, he'll give it the nod.

    He was a member of the Democratic Party back circa 2012/2014 before becoming a Republican. Presumably there was a reason behind his thinking on which party to tie his future to.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,204 ✭✭✭political analyst


    It's obvious that ordinary Republicans could prevent Trump from getting their party's nomination this year if they wanted to. If they did that and he then ran as a third-party candidate then so what?! It would be an injustice to let Trump run again, let alone re-elect him - and injustice in a democratic country usually causes a public outcry, doesn't it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,204 ✭✭✭political analyst


    In this article, Stephen Collinson wrote that high prices caused by the pandemic have a greater resonance with most voters than the matter of democracy.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    The only response I can give you is that Trump and his allies seem to have scrambled the brains of enough GOP voters to prevent normalcy returning to that party anytime soon, with the willing assistance of enough greedy GOP politicians who now see his way as the best route to the seats of power in the swamp he promised to drain. His way of causing public outcry caused the present situation.

    As I see it, the GOP had a chance to right the wrong Trump did at the time he did it in 2020 and they didn't make him pay for his direct assault on it, on the US and it's Constitution and way of life in the way the writers of it probably would have honourably done if they had been around in 2020.

    It might be possible if those formerly in the OLD GOP who were expelled by Trump's pals were to start afresh with a new GOP and take the title back from the Trump clan and the RINO's and guide it and the US back on track away from Trump's venial version of the GOP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    This might sound unusual but, as it's from Trump's side it's possibly not. Trump's legal team have asked Judge Chutkan to hold Jack Smith in contempt of court after the special prosecutor [in their opinion] took steps to advance the case against Trump after a judge put the case on hold. The steps taken by Smith was the handing over to the defence thousands of pages of evidence and an exhibit list while the case was on pause. They claim Smith also filed a motion a week later after the handover of the evidence to them which “teems with partisan rhetoric" and “false claims.”.

    I don't know whether they had originally asked for the handover of the prosecutors evidence and list from Smith in Judge Chutkan's court [as I understand is normal for the defence and the prosecution sides in cases] or were told by Smith in court conversations that he would do so. If they were aware, smoke is getting in peoples eyes.

    The case involved seems to be the one where Smith was investigating Trump in respect to interference with the real 2020 election result so Trump could falsely claim to be the person elected to the presidency.

    Post edited by aloyisious on


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    You can actually watch the GOP spines disintegrate in real time after the events of January 6th.

    In the immediate aftermath they were all calling him out for his actions and/or inaction and some were doing so quite strenuously. Then as the days past and they realised that the GOP base (and money) weren't shifting away from Trump they all just slithered away and stopped saying anything bad about him. And after another few days the "it was Antifa" etc. disinformation campaign started up as they simply decided that they had to stay with Trump to stay on the gravy train.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Hung by their won petard, and rightfully so.

    If Trump does get elected again [supposing that the USSC decides that section 3 of the 14th amendment doesn't apply to election-candidates to the office of the presidency - which in itself leaves the door open to any serving president to rebel directly and forcefully against the constitution and the US itself, knowing they can run again should they behave the way that Trump did], I expect most if not all of those sentenced to jail over their part in the Insurrection bid would expect to be pardoned by Trump.

    It would certainly mean that those freed from prison would be able to seek election themselves to the presidency - something that should be impressed on the USSC [and on those GOP seated in Washington friendly with those on the USSC] - before it decides on the election issue, whether or not the freedom from prison was down to a pardon or completion of prison sentence.

    If he did - on legal advice -pardon those convicted and/or on trial, I would not like to have been on the bench, prosecution or jury panel at any of the insurrectionists trials. If he didn't pardon them, presumably it would rebound on him for declining any clemency requests from those believers. IMO, it would certainly be a major error of judgement to do so to those in/of the GOP who supported him on the hill on 06/01/2020, and at all other times since then. I wouldn't like to be the Trump AG of the day.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,558 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I wonder if they would tell the judges to make sure Trump did not get in simply to get a more compliant candidate instead and then act shocked and in horror over the whole thing. They where of course 110% behind Trump all the time, how dare they do this etc. while sniggering behind the back of it all as they get really what they want. It would be the tea party movement all over again basically.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,333 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    They could take a page from Trump's rulebook and tell the USSC all manner of invented "facts" including what he plans to do with the USSC as a fixture when re-elected.

    Something I had asked myself was the where-abouts of the USSC building in Washington. According to the net, it's located just one block from the Capitol Building in Washington. I don't know what body provides its security. I presume the judges there took due recognition of what actually happened so near their work-building in 2020.

    Post edited by aloyisious on


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,558 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    The US Supreme Court said Friday it will review the Colorado Supreme Court’s unprecedented decision removing former President Donald Trump from that state’s ballot. The court scheduled oral arguments for February 8.

    From CNN; that should give a ruling end of Feb or mid March I'd guess and will for sure make things interesting in the primary if he's ruled against (and depending on what they rule on if he lead or if it was an insurrection could imply other cases as well but I'm guessing they will narrow that part out of scope)...



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    The BBC assessment of possibilities is pretty fair.

    Something to be careful of is if the cure is worse than the ailment.

    There are a number of concerns if the Colorado ruling is allowed stand. That's not that the Colorado ruling was wrong, within the limits of State law there was little wrong with it.

    The biggest and most obvious problem is that if the Feds (Be it Congress or SCOTUS, both have jurisdiction) don't come up with a national overview, then any State can come up with its own justification to deny a candidate eligibility for federal office. Imagine if the Florida legislature under DeSantis arbitrarily declared that Biden committed insurrection by rigging the election which was stolen from Trump. Probably quite legal under Florida state law. Or whatever mechanism would be used. It's only a finding, either in the FL legislature or the CO court. It's not a trial.

    Eligibility for President is defined by the Feds. Must be 35. Must be a citizen. Must not be an insurrectionist. There is a federal definition of insurrection, but notably, even though Trump is under indictment by the Feds for his actions in the 2020 election (and over a hundred state and local charges, I believe), insurrection is not one of the charges. Could it be that the Feds don't think it counts? Should a State be able to make its own declaration of interpretation in such a case? Should a State be able to add additional requirements on top of federal requirements?

    And, of course, there's the whole 'innocent until proven guilty in a court of law' and 'every person is entitled his day in court' bit. Congress may have a way of making a declaration (probably similar to impeachment). Certainly the federal courts may convict him if tried. But until then, is it morally justified to declare someone has committed a crime complete with legal ramifications without a trial?

    It's why I agree with the various legal conclusions in the BBC article. The court will nix the Colorado ruling, but not by saying he didn't commit insurrection, or by saying he had Presidential immunity, or any other such thing, as those would have pretty significant knock-on effects of their own. Instead, simply by saying that Colorado overstepped its bounds, authority gets reserved to the Feds, Trump does not get 'cleared', and the precedential damage done is mitigated.



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