Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

DataDude · 12-12-2023 10:20AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485861#Comment_121485861

Initial 3bed semi’s there went for either €540k or €570k. Can you get new build 3bed in North Wicklow/All of Dublin for much less than that? I don’t think there are many/any left under the HTB threshold.

The initial comparison was on a new build in Artane I think - I doubt you can buy much cheaper there.

OEP · 12-12-2023 10:36AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485832#Comment_121485832

I have essentially all of that in my house except for the quartz worktop, because that's outrageously expensive (6k was my quote). And it was 20k for kitchen and appliances. That's integrated appliances, all top brands (NEFF, AEG, Samsung, Bosch) and higher end of their models.

awec · 12-12-2023 11:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485988#Comment_121485988

I doubt you have the same type of cabinets that @DataDude is talking about if you only paid 20k.

Most people go for the kitchens where you are basically buying chipboard carcasses and then they stick a door of your choice on the front. These are a lot cheaper.

You can get the in-frame kitchens which are significantly more expensive, where the door closes into the frame rather than covering it. Lower tolerances and the frame itself being on show ramps the price way up. Or you can get cabinets made by cabinet makers which again are a higher quality kitchen but much more expensive.

The cabinets alone would be far above 20k in this sort of kitchen for a "normal" sized kitchen.

We wanted to put an in-frame into our new build but the developer wouldn't allow it, even though we'd have paid for it. The value of the kitchen was too high for them to risk damage during ongoing works. Can't remember the exact figure though.

Villa05 · 12-12-2023 11:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485861#Comment_121485861

At least if your buying a Mercedes your likely to use it. I've seen people buying neff appliances and being the loyalist customers of just eat and uber eats. The plastic dust film still on some of the appliances

Trophies rather than appliances. Each to there own

Villa05 · 12-12-2023 11:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121485725#Comment_121485725

Mr Noonan revealed NAMA would join forces with developers to build more than 22,000 homes over the next five years.

How many homes did NAMA build, nowhere near 22k I suspect. Two years later he pushed NAMA to speed up asset disposal amidst a number of controversial deals

RichardAnd · 12-12-2023 12:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486175#Comment_121486175

The number is probably buried in statistics somewhere, but even it were 22k, Mr Noonan also presided over policy that increased the population to the order of hundreds of thousands. Can't have your cake and eat it.

L1011 · 12-12-2023 12:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486376#Comment_121486376

And you can't continue trying to breach the thread rules - you have been warned repeatedly and trying to be sneaky like this doesn't work

This is a final warning before a threadban.

12-12-2023 12:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486376#Comment_121486376

Not that I’m a FG supporter, but you have to give them some credit, even though the population increased, our economy has made a remarkable recovery and there is full employment. So that eating cake must also apply to their critics.

RichardAnd · 12-12-2023 12:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486391#Comment_121486391

I think I voted for them in 2016, and I even remember having a friendly chat with Richard Bruton when he called around canvasing. Don't I feel dirty...

Of course how much of the post-crash recovery in jobs can be said to be the work of FG is open to debate. It was likely as much due to a general uptick in global economic activity as anything else.

12-12-2023 01:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486416#Comment_121486416

It is easy to say that, particularly if it suits your narrative, but the facts are there to see, despite a population which hasn’t been as high since the famine, a starting point of deep recession, a pandemic etc, we have full employment and lots and lots of high paying jobs. There is no doubt that house building hasn’t kept pace, and lots of mistakes have been made, but it would be ignorant not to acknowledge that there has been a lot of good done, and a lot of people have benefited.

12-12-2023 01:52PM

There's a weird online narrative that nobody is doing well. I was in Dublin city center all day Saturday, it was insanely busy, as in genuinely difficult to walk the paths busy.

Cyrus · 12-12-2023 02:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486745#Comment_121486745

yes me too, BT was so busy it was like they were giving stuff away.

Villa05 · 12-12-2023 02:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486391#Comment_121486391

Ireland's growth is predominantly down to 2 decisions

'Free" third level education

Favourable corporation tax

Neither were implemented by FG

Broney points for not screwing it up, however housing has been ours and the economys achilles heel. FG had a significant part in bringing us here despite having multiple golden opportunities to fix it.

Cyrus · 12-12-2023 02:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487075#Comment_121487075

whats not looking good?

RichardAnd · 12-12-2023 02:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486532#Comment_121486532

I don't have a narrative beyond my own appraisal of things. I don't think that things here would have been any different had FF, Labor, SF or anyone else been in power. All that they seem to do is follow whatever is the international trend.

A lot of people have benefited, yes. However can it objectively be said that people are better off now than they were ten years ago ON AVERAGE. I'm unsure of that.

timmyntc · 12-12-2023 03:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487099#Comment_121487099

Irish economy is doing so well due to an aggressive policy toward attracting FDI into this country.

It has much more to do than just corporation tax- the work of the department and enterprise ireland behind the scenes is massive. It is not as simple as cutting a tax rate - if it were, companies would be moving all their factories and R&D to the virgin islands, or Luxembourg, Malta etc.

Corporate tax as the only reason applies to aircraft leasing and eu/intl profits booked in ireland, but the majority of actual jobs from MNCs here are in Ireland for other reasons.

DataDude · 12-12-2023 03:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487122#Comment_121487122

Well in 10 years per CSO

CPI is up 20%

Wages are up 30%

Unemployment has gone from 15% to 4%.

Sure house prices and rents are up but about 65% of Irish people own their own home so they’d have ‘gained’ from this on paper.

So yes, I would confidently state the average person is objectively ‘better off’ in 2023 vs 2013

12-12-2023 04:18PM

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/meath/news/see-inside-spectacular-meath-property-on-market-for-cool-1175m/a829848647.html

I thought these houses were too pricey when they were selling for 935k a year or so ago.

Cyrus · 12-12-2023 04:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487531#Comment_121487531

pricey but they are hoping it looks like value to someone in dublin prepared to move out a little.

Blut2 · 12-12-2023 07:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487327#Comment_121487327

All of the wage gains have been far more than eaten up by increases in housing costs. I don't have a more recent chart to hand, but its only gotten worse since this.

2):

Given housing is the most expensive cost in most people's lives this is why so many people are struggling, and struggling badly, now. Rising wages aren't any use if your rent/mortgage costs are going up by even more.

12-12-2023 07:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488230#Comment_121488230

We’ve had historically low mortgage rates for a decade, less than1%, rates are now reverting back to where they would likely have been had we not had a recession/property crash. These rates are the norm, the low rates were the exception.

L1011 · 12-12-2023 07:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488309#Comment_121488309

Only a certain, un-enterable group of people were getting sub 1%, though.

The just under 2% that was available for some is still historically low.

PommieBast · 12-12-2023 07:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121486175#Comment_121486175

Dunno about numbers but I suspect what was built was in spite of rather than because.

DataDude · 12-12-2023 08:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488230#Comment_121488230

Agreed, there is a cohort undoubtedly getting shafted. But in terms of ‘average’ person.

700k houses owner occupied without mortgage

550k houses occupied with a mortgage

200k rented from LA/AHB/rent free

300k in private rentals.

So the cohort being hammered isn’t the ‘average ’. It’s a minority (albeit sizeable) feeling the pain. Also those who bought recently at high prices may have felt aggrieved by high prices but also have locked in phenomenally low mortgage rates to offset a lot of it. I also accept there is a significant cohort not captured here of ‘living at home through necessity rather than choice’.

Although again comparing to 2013, when the youth unemployment rate was 30%…not sure all of those in private rentals would be wishing for those days again.

Timing belt · 12-12-2023 08:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488230#Comment_121488230

similar graph zoomed out doesn’t paint the exact same picture. What it does show is that once’s banks started lending again wages and property prices started to track each other which suggests that prices would be way higher only for the loan to income caps introduced.

Villa05 · 12-12-2023 08:47PM

Although again comparing to 2013, when the youth unemployment rate was 30%…not sure all of those in private rentals would be wishing for those days again.

The youth unemployment of 2013 are the shafted generation of potential ftb's of today. They have every right to be furious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488479#Comment_121488479

Timing belt · 12-12-2023 08:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488479#Comment_121488479

People are not wishing for 2013 conditions they are wishing for 2013 house prices and today’s wages. It’s highly unlikely to ever happen but for people who were in a position to buy in the early. 2010’s but didn’t they rather stick to this belief rather than accepting reality and admitting they got it wrong.

12-12-2023 09:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488560#Comment_121488560

I suspect a considerable number of those twenty somethings in 2013 are doing ok in IT and trades now, all those people who bought houses have benefited from low rates and have paid down a considerable amount of the capital in their mortgages so rates aren’t biting as much as you might think.

Young people always think they are being shafted.

Blut2 · 12-12-2023 10:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488529#Comment_121488529

Your chart only shows private sector wages, not earnings including the public sector - who make up a very substantial amount of the work force. And who've had less wage growth than the private sector. But even ignoring that it still shows both house prices and rent having increased significantly more than income since 2016, which does rather confirm my point.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121488479#Comment_121488479

A portion of the 550k houses occupied with a mortgage will have only gotten a mortgage in recent years at heavily inflated prices. Or will be exposed soon, or already have been exposed, to large rate increases.

200k low income renters renting from LA/social housing have seen their quality of life in general hit by inflation by more than anyone on higher wages.

300k in private rentals have been absolutely hammered by rental increases over the last decade.

The hundreds of thousands of people under 40 living at home who aren't included in these figures are also suffering, and their parents who have them living at home with them (even if the house is mortgage free) are also suffering as a result.

That adds up to a significant proportion of the population getting shafted. Which is reflected in the large numbers of people now saying they're going to vote for SF purely because of the housing crisis.

12-12-2023 10:16PM

They should ask their SF candidate for specifics on how they are going to make housing affordable, and how they are going to pay for it.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting