A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

brickster69 · 04-12-2023 05:02PM

Largest fall since the start of lockdowns.

herbalplants · 05-12-2023 05:33PM

Phantom exports are down.

‘Phantom exports’ plummet amid contraction in multinational trade

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/phantom-exports-plummet-amid-contraction-in-multinational-trade/

New figures show phantom exports reduced by half in the year to Q3, clouding Ireland’s economic outlook

enricoh · 05-12-2023 05:43PM

Corporation tax got a good bump for the critical month of November, had dropped for 3 previous months. I'd say a few in government were sweating!

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/1205/1420133-exchequer-returns/

brickster69 · 06-12-2023 09:31AM

Hopefully just a one off.

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1732293982976159933

brickster69 · 06-12-2023 09:46AM

Construction in depression territory.

timmyntc · 06-12-2023 10:06AM

brickster69

Dec 6, 2023

Construction in depression territory.
https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/DKRH8USS73WW/cons.png

Is this due to affordability pressures (higher rates on mortgages) impacting demand, or?

brickster69 · 06-12-2023 10:13AM

timmyntc

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121460516#Comment_121460516
Is this due to affordability pressures (higher rates on mortgages) impacting demand, or?

It seems specific to Germany, everyone has the same interest rates and construction is not too bad in other places. Something has certainly gone wrong there for some reason .

herbalplants · 06-12-2023 02:23PM

brickster69

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121460585#Comment_121460585
It seems specific to Germany, everyone has the same interest rates and construction is not too bad in other places. Something has certainly gone wrong there for some reason .

German housebuilding is on the brink of collapse as construction projects are being canceled and orders are slowing.Higher interest rates and increased materials costs are among the reasons for the issues.

Gussoe · 06-12-2023 02:31PM

Why do we believe it's a "Global Recession"?

It looks like it's a bit more localized to me.

Danzy · 06-12-2023 02:32PM

brickster69

Dec 6, 2023

Hopefully just a one off.
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1732293982976159933

Whatever about the doom and gloom for the global economy or even Europe, can go either way and a year long mild recession isn't actually a bad thing and may be badly needed In fact .

But Germanys economy is fucked for a good few years to come. They are turning in to a real long stagnation story.

Danzy · 06-12-2023 02:36PM

brickster69

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121460585#Comment_121460585
It seems specific to Germany, everyone has the same interest rates and construction is not too bad in other places. Something has certainly gone wrong there for some reason .

Energy costs is the trigger, over reliance on cheap Russian energy for their manufacturing. That sector being ground down via cost increases and relocation to cheaper energy countries.

Add in a lot of German infrastructure and business practices being unchanged from the 90s.

Germany largely stopped innovating 30 years ago and let the, for them, undervalued Euro drive sales.

It was always going to catch up.

Germany is very strange place.

Timing belt · 06-12-2023 06:02PM

herbalplants

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121460603#Comment_121460603
German housebuilding is on the brink of collapse as construction projects are being canceled and orders are slowing.Higher interest rates and increased materials costs are among the reasons for the issues.

I think you will find that rising interest rates have a bigger impact on the German housing market because of the lack of strict limits based on income which helped fuel strong rises in house prices during the boom years of low interest rates and now is having the opposite effect. The lack of limits means that people borrowed to the max (100% mortgages + second loans to cover costs) and now a larger portion of that max is being used to repay interest which means smaller mortgages and lower house prices.

duck.duck.go · 06-12-2023 08:31PM

Gussoe

Dec 6, 2023

Why do we believe it's a "Global Recession"?
It looks like it's a bit more localized to me.

The US stocks and bitcoin and gold have been absolutely flying up to the moon in the last few weeks

Usually a very steep and sustained drop in stocks is followed by a recession and unemployment about a year later, it’s the opposite now with full employment

As for Germany they willingly got into bed with Russia and let China rob their tech and replace them as an industrial powerhouse, it’s hard to have sympathy especially when one remembers how they treated Greece and even some of the smug schandefrudean comments directed at Ireland back in day

Ozark707 · 07-12-2023 12:23AM

Timing belt

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121461554#Comment_121461554
I think you will find that rising interest rates have a bigger impact on the German housing market because of the lack of strict limits based on income which helped fuel strong rises in house prices during the boom years of low interest rates and now is having the opposite effect. The lack of limits means that people borrowed to the max (100% mortgages + second loans to cover costs) and now a larger portion of that max is being used to repay interest which means smaller mortgages and lower house prices.

An interesting correlation here...from late September, so would be interesting to see if this trend continued

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/09/22/german-home-prices-follow-ecb-balance-sheet-spiked-during-qe-swoon-now-during-qt/

eightieschewbaccy · 07-12-2023 08:58AM

duck.duck.go

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121461580#Comment_121461580
The US stocks and bitcoin and gold have been absolutely flying up to the moon in the last few weeks
Usually a very steep and sustained drop in stocks is followed by a recession and unemployment about a year later, it’s the opposite now with full employment
As for Germany they willingly got into bed with Russia and let China rob their tech and replace them as an industrial powerhouse, it’s hard to have sympathy especially when one remembers how they treated Greece and even some of the smug schandefrudean comments directed at Ireland back in day

I do think this thread is one of those ones that will be going for years until a recession inevitably happens. Then somebody will declare they called it... 🤣

duck.duck.go · 07-12-2023 09:43AM

eightieschewbaccy

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121463337#Comment_121463337
I do think this thread is one of those ones that will be going for years until a recession inevitably happens. Then somebody will declare they called it... 🤣

The David Mc Williams manoeuvre 😂

brickster69 · 07-12-2023 09:55AM

eightieschewbaccy

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121463337#Comment_121463337
I do think this thread is one of those ones that will be going for years until a recession inevitably happens. Then somebody will declare they called it... 🤣

It will go on for years for a global recession or some major disaster to hit.

galwaytt · 07-12-2023 09:59AM

eightieschewbaccy

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121463337#Comment_121463337
I do think this thread is one of those ones that will be going for years until a recession inevitably happens. Then somebody will declare they called it... 🤣

indeed: even a broken clock is right twice a day theory.

brickster69 · 07-12-2023 10:10AM

Danzy

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121460476#Comment_121460476
Whatever about the doom and gloom for the global economy or even Europe, can go either way and a year long mild recession isn't actually a bad thing and may be badly needed In fact .
But Germanys economy is fucked for a good few years to come. They are turning in to a real long stagnation story.

Certainly looks as if it is going to get worse before it get's better.

Germany October industrial production -0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expected | Forexlive

https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-october-industrial-production-04-vs-02-mm-expected-20231207/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Latest data released by Destatis - 7 December 2023

Gussoe · 07-12-2023 04:49PM

duck.duck.go

Dec 6, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121461580#Comment_121461580
The US stocks and bitcoin and gold have been absolutely flying up to the moon in the last few weeks
Usually a very steep and sustained drop in stocks is followed by a recession and unemployment about a year later, it’s the opposite now with full employment
As for Germany they willingly got into bed with Russia and let China rob their tech and replace them as an industrial powerhouse, it’s hard to have sympathy especially when one remembers how they treated Greece and even some of the smug schandefrudean comments directed at Ireland back in day

It makes perfect economic sense to acquire energy from an energy-rich neighbour.

It makes zero sense to later, sanction your energy provider.

Gussoe · 07-12-2023 04:53PM

It's odd reading posts of people laughing or gleeful about the current state of the German economy.

They are the "economic engine of Europe", if their economy is in the gutter, the rest of europe will probably follow, at least in one way or another.

duck.duck.go · 07-12-2023 05:00PM

Gussoe

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121463337#Comment_121463337
It makes perfect economic sense to acquire energy from an energy-rich neighbour.
It makes zero sense to later, sanction your energy provider.

That “energy provider” was painting “To Berlin” on their tanks and helicopters and creating millions of refugees flooding Germany from Syria through Africa through Ukraine

The mistake was getting into bed with them in first place

Gussoe · 07-12-2023 05:10PM

duck.duck.go

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121467217#Comment_121467217
That “energy provider” was painting “To Berlin” on their tanks and helicopters and creating millions of refugees flooding Germany from Syria through Africa through Ukraine
The mistake was getting into bed with them in first place

Yeah i really don't like what's happening in Ukraine. But I also don't like what's been going on with Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Yet i'd be happy enough with the opportunity to buy OIL from either one, when it's to my economic advantage to do so.

Podge_irl · 07-12-2023 05:24PM

Gussoe

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121467270#Comment_121467270
Yeah i really don't like what's happening in Ukraine. But I also don't like what's been going on with Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Yet i'd be happy enough with the opportunity to buy OIL from either one, when it's to my economic advantage to do so.

It is to nobody's economic advantage to facilitate Russian aggression and disruption on our border. A rather key difference between this situation and SA and Yemen. Whatever the morals, the "realpolitik" of it doesn't make sense.

brickster69 · 07-12-2023 05:25PM

Gussoe

Dec 7, 2023

It's odd reading posts of people laughing or gleeful about the current state of the German economy.
They are the "economic engine of Europe", if their economy is in the gutter, the rest of europe will probably follow, at least in one way or another.

Some people don't quite grasp that until they understand Europe largest economy stops buying stuff because demand has slowed down at home and then it affects companies at home.

Gussoe · 07-12-2023 05:30PM

Podge_irl

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121467297#Comment_121467297
It is to nobody's economic advantage to facilitate Russian aggression and disruption on our border. A rather key difference between this situation and SA and Yemen. Whatever the morals, the "realpolitik" of it doesn't make sense.

Well we will have to agree to disagree about that. Tending to your relationship with your provider is part of doing business.

Podge_irl · 07-12-2023 05:34PM

Gussoe

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121467353#Comment_121467353
Well we will have to agree to disagree about that. Tending to your relationship with your provider is part of doing business.

You could remove sanctions tomorrow and the vast majority of users of oil and gas would still not source Russian material.

There is a huge reputational damage that comes from doing business with Russia and they have shown themselves to be completely unreliable and willing to use threats of supply disruption for political ends.

De-risking by moving away from Russian sources is economically and politically sound.

duck.duck.go · 07-12-2023 05:38PM

Gussoe

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121467353#Comment_121467353
Well we will have to agree to disagree about that. Tending to your relationship with your provider is part of doing business.

You should have used the word drug dealer instead of “provider” that better describes the Russian criminals

Gussoe · 07-12-2023 05:38PM

Podge_irl

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121467377#Comment_121467377
You could remove sanctions tomorrow and the vast majority of users of oil and gas would still not source Russian material.
There is a huge reputational damage that comes from doing business with Russia and they have shown themselves to be completely unreliable and willing to use threats of supply disruption for political ends.
De-risking by moving away from Russian sources is economically and politically sound.

politically perhaps, but not economically sound.

duck.duck.go · 07-12-2023 05:54PM

Gussoe

Dec 7, 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121467398#Comment_121467398
politically perhaps, but not economically sound.

Germanys problems have little to do with their energy supply which hasn’t been an issue for over a year since Putin lost his energy war, but with a certain building in Frankfurt and a certain country in far east whom copied a lot of their tech and engineering nor is hamstrung by same laws

Anyways they can always try selling an island or two

A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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‘Phantom exports’ plummet amid contraction in multinational trade

Germany October industrial production -0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expected | Forexlive

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