Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

aloyisious · 05-10-2023 08:34AM

I'm reading that McCarthy agreed to a "one person can submit a Vacate motion against the Speaker" deal in order to get the Speakers job. I've seen mention elsewhere that there was a suggestion that the figure of five [5] persons would be required for such a motion to advance to a vote but McCarthy caved in and agreed to just one person proposing a motion. Are both those reports correct?

If he agreed to the "one person can propose" idea, it looks like McCarthy may have assisted in his own sacking. Now the question is, can that "one person" vacate motion be overturned by another bringing back the status quo ante or increase the figure of proposers to five [5] or larger to stop a renegade member from bringing a "Gaetz" motion against a Speaker in the future? The motion by Gaetz was a move by him against a fellow GOP party member and not a Speaker from the opposition party so it wasn't even a partisan motion, just an internal GOP wrangle being made on the national political stage of no benefit to the GOP, just a move based on personal spite. It probably didn't even benefit Trump, just muddied the GOP waters.

VinLieger · 05-10-2023 08:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121196313#Comment_121196313

Yup McCarthy agreed to it as a demand from Gaetz for his wing to give McCarthy Speaker, i dont know if things default back with a new speaker though.

pixelburp · 05-10-2023 08:42AM

It's also worth pointing out that the Democrats had their own hand in all this. They could have sided with McCarthy for the sake of continuity of governance but chose to let the GOP blow itself up. It's a risky enough strategy cos if a MAGA cultist gets the nod instead, they just swapped about as a good a moderate as you can get ATM, for a wing-nut.

odyssey06 · 05-10-2023 08:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121196338#Comment_121196338

Was abstaining an option? The Republicans are so unpredictable at this point I'm not sure how this plays out.

Leroy42 · 05-10-2023 08:51AM

McConnell said yesterday that the new speaker should get rid of the vote altogether. So it certainly can be changed.

McCarthy agreed to it as all he was interested in was getting the speaker role. He knew, everyone knew, he inly had it at the gift of Gatez and the other headbangers.

This is the outcome that was always going to happen, unless McCarthy completely caved on everything to them.

He is now reaping his own reward. The only speaker to ever be removed. That is his legacy.

After all his brown nosing of Trump, his refusal to stand up for democracy or the rule of law for Jan 6th. His driving the political division deeper.

This us what he gets. A sad footnote on the Trump years.

aloyisious · 05-10-2023 08:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121191982#Comment_121191982

Work: possibly the only reason he would decline the honour, though if the Pres was to slip on the way down the aircraft steps and something were to happen to the V/P, hey presto: the job without any election stress or hassle....

I suppose the GOP might try to prevent their one-time elected president legally getting back into office but..........

Quin_Dub · 05-10-2023 09:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121196338#Comment_121196338

Fair points - But let's say Jordan gets in.

Yes , it will be a year of painful performative nonsense but to what end?

He'll bluster and wail and do all the things he usually does , but how can he actually damage the Democrats ?

What can he actually do that hurts the Democrats and benefits the GOP at the ballot over the next 12 months (if he lasted that long) ?

All it takes to kick him out is 6 GOP people not happy with his crap - There are many more that 6 GOP reps sitting in very very swing districts that won't want to have to try to defend the worst excesses of a MAGA speaker.

If a Jordan type wins there'll be another Speaker election in the New Year (unless he can change the rules back to make bringing the vote harder).

At this stage it's almost certainly going to be Scalise.

aloyisious · 05-10-2023 02:28PM

Quotes from a "The Guardian" article one day ago reference frontrunner GOP members replacing McCarthy in office. The title of the article is - Republicans Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise launch House speakership bids.

1. Ukraine could become a central focus of House Republicans’ speaker candidate forum, which is scheduled for next Tuesday. Asked about his stance on approving more funding for Ukraine, Jordan said: “I’m against that … The most pressing issue on Americans’ mind is not Ukraine. It is the border situation, and it is crime on the streets.

2. Scalise’s hard-right views – which have even seen him linked to the former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke – and his personal health could pose challenges as he seeks the gavel. Scalise, 57, walks with a cane, having survived a shooting at congressional baseball practice in 2017. He is also in treatment for multiple myeloma, an aggressive form of cancer. He has said the treatment is going well.

3. “The ability for one person to vacate the speaker of the House will keep a chokehold on this body through 2024,” the Republican Main Street caucus, representing the centrist House Republicans, said in a statement. “Personal politics should never again be used to trump the will of 96% of House conservatives. Any candidate for speaker must explain to us how what happened on Tuesday will never happen again. Another sticking point for Republicans involves the mechanism that Matt Gaetz used to oust McCarthy, the motion to vacate. Under current House rules, any single member can force a vote on removing the speaker, and some of the more moderate House Republicans want to raise that threshold to avoid a repeat of Tuesday’s spectacle.

4. Jordan and Scalise are both hardline conservatives who may struggle to attract support from moderates – a fact not lost on observers after Gaetz and seven other hard-right Republicans chose to make McCarthy the first speaker ever removed by his own party.

On the Trump front, the THIRD sentence in the next paragraph from the article might be seen as a reason for hope against the ultimate horror for the party, despite the Trumpers persisting with their version of reality.

Three House Republicans and Fox News host Sean Hannity have pitched a different wildcard option: elect Donald Trump as speaker. The speaker does not have to be a member of Congress, though no speaker has ever filled the role without holding a seat. But House Republican rules say anyone indicted and facing two years or more of prison time cannot hold a leadership role, which would render Trump ineligible. End quotes.....

Brian? · 15-10-2023 07:27PM

If the election was held today, polls have Trump absolutely trouncing Biden. What the hell is wrong with Americans?

beggars_bush · 15-10-2023 07:48PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121242766#Comment_121242766

What polling company?

Leroy42 · 15-10-2023 08:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121242766#Comment_121242766

Trump should hope the election is held today as the longer these court cases go on the worse things get from him.

Not just in terms of public support but his speeches and interviews are getting more bizarre and it's clear the pressure is really getting to him.

Another massive issue is the GOP itself. With the chaos in the party will any independents really vote for a GOP POTUS? And even if he does win,he showed in his last term that he cannot work without complete control in both the house and senate. So while he might win he'll be the ultimate lame duck.

Brian? · 15-10-2023 08:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121242903#Comment_121242903

Aggregated polls. Look at 538

Brian? · 15-10-2023 08:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121242997#Comment_121242997

“The longer these cases go on, the worse things get for him”? No actually it’s the opposite.

the more cases, the better he polls. It’s bizarre

Podge_irl · 17-10-2023 01:54PM

The only sliver of hope I would cling on to is that Trump is getting noticeably more and more deranged. Most people, even those saying they would vote for him, are likely not paying much attention to him at all. As the election nears and he becomes more prominent I would hope people would start to pay more attention to the absolute gibberish he is coming out with.

Quin_Dub · 17-10-2023 02:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121250184#Comment_121250184

No one is listening to him at present other than his MAGA acolytes..

Attention will pivot when we get to the actual primaries and the impact of his court cases running concurrently with the various Primaries will begin to come to bear.

And as the GOP House continues to eat itself the general picture of utter disarray will only become clearer..

Brian? · 17-10-2023 07:03PM

Lads, you need to look at the polling. It’s bad bad news.

He should be losing in a landslide, but isn’t. Something is seriously wrong there.

VinLieger · 17-10-2023 08:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121251471#Comment_121251471

Yes, where have you been? the GOP and MAGA are a cult

ancapailldorcha · 18-10-2023 10:08AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121251471#Comment_121251471

Bear in mind that most people don't follow Politics all that closely if they do at all. They're certainly not posting on message boards about it. They probably just vote for the party they usually vote for and that's the extent of their participation. There's also the fact that the right tends to be reasonably good at holding their noses compared to the left.

Brian? · 18-10-2023 12:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121252125#Comment_121252125

I’m not talking about the MAGA cult. He’s winning swing voters.

Brian? · 18-10-2023 12:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121253676#Comment_121253676

People are missing my point here.

Normal people with no party affiliation prefer Trump to Biden right now. It’s insane.

pixelburp · 18-10-2023 12:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254351#Comment_121254351

Are these polled folk unregistered or registered voters, what's the polling company's own political bias?

Not saying there aren't weird responses coming back in support of Trump, but the devil may be in the detail here.

VinLieger · 18-10-2023 01:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254351#Comment_121254351

Can you link the 538 polls your looking at as I didn't see any evidence of this.

Glencarraig · 18-10-2023 01:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121191783#Comment_121191783

Is it not the case that an indicted person cannot be speaker???

salmocab · 18-10-2023 01:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254351#Comment_121254351

One is running a campaign one is running a country. It’s too far out for this to mean anything

amandstu · 18-10-2023 01:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254794#Comment_121254794

I don't know.Probably academic .If he can't get his quislings elected it is unlikely he could get elected himself.

Quin_Dub · 18-10-2023 02:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254720#Comment_121254720

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Some of the latest polls have it a fairly mixed bag with Trump appearing to be far more competitive than you might expect.

But as others have said , it's a year out , Biden isn't campaigning and most of the polls are with "registered voters" and not "likely voters"

VinLieger · 18-10-2023 02:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255158#Comment_121255158

Ahh that makes sense, registered only this far out is pointless

odyssey06 · 18-10-2023 02:50PM

Plus when you throw a wild card like RFK Jnr into the mix you could have a third party candidate who hurts one or the other of the main candidates - and the indications is that once you look past the surname, he will take more votes from Trump.

A lot of the polls don't factor that in.

I saw this posted elsewhere on Boards:

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/whoa-new-poll-shows-rfk-jr-siphoning-more-votes-from-trump-than-biden/

VinLieger · 18-10-2023 03:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255273#Comment_121255273

Indeed the initial assumption that he was Democrat therefore would siphon more from Biden has been debunked once more people become aware of his policies which far more align with Trumps

Quin_Dub · 18-10-2023 03:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255323#Comment_121255323

If Kennedy actually stays in the race through to the actual Election and Trump is running I think he gives a lot of "Never Trump" types a voting out that they might not have had.

A chunk of the "hold you nose" votes might shift to him instead of Trump.

But I'm not convinced he stays in the race to be honest.

Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

Comments