Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

WolfeEire · 25-09-2023 11:56PM

My take on it is that the storm will track a little further north than it is currently marked on the ECM and that it will be the sustained nature of the strong winds that will be most notable compared to the gusts. Sustained winds of 55-60kmh plus likely across much of Munster and Leinster, and possibly south Galway. With many trees still fairly leaf laden, disruption to transport and energy is very likely, particularly in coastal parts of west and south Munster and Wexford. An orange wind alert is likely for much of Munster and the southern half of Leinster. You will inevitably see some school closures announced tomorrow evening as the storm will impact during daylight hours. The most damaging winds (gusts and mean) may just peak offshore to our SSW according latest available guidance.

pauldry · 26-09-2023 12:01AM

This thing is going to pack a punch no doubt now. South worst hit but surprising gusts too in the East. I'd expect a lot of felled trees and some structural damage....unless it shifts South again .

But now it's formed in the Atlantic its track is more set. The South track seems less likely now but hopefully it fills a little on approach as its peak winds will hopefully occur before it hits our little island.

amandstu · 26-09-2023 12:11AM

In general ,if we have a low pressure system moving ,as an example eastwards where would we be most likely to have the highest wind speeds?

Just outside the eye of the storm?

And might we expect those areas of high wind speed (again in this general example) to be to the North ,to the South ,to the East or to the West?

I don't imagine there could be a "doppler effect" causing the pressure gradient to tighten in the direction of travel(not that I see that)

I am sure every system is different but are there any characteristics that apply (to an extent) to them all?

.Donegal. · 26-09-2023 01:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157475#Comment_121157475

For us with storms approaching from the Atlantic the strongest winds are to the south of the centre.

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2023 04:39AM

ICON as usual quite strong with wind gusts on 00z run, but note lowest pressures only 975-980 and it does not look as strong as the depicted winds, also those do not spread inland. Current satellite depiction of developing low is not overly dynamic. An interesting few hours of chart viewing ahead, at the present time, not really convinced this has all the required ingredients.

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2023 05:00AM

GFS looks like a strong hit on the southwest and a slowly filling low during the afternoon and evening so that other regions get a less intense result. South Kerry and west Cork could see gusts to 130 km/hr and rainfalls to 35 mm. It would be less disruptive further east and north.

Arpege similar but weakening trend begins almost at first contact and so gust potential is lower.

Dazler97 · 26-09-2023 05:16AM

Mt eirreans forcast this morning, severe and damaging gusts in the east and south, I'm calling for orange warnings there and Cork and the being red warnings

Screenshot_20230926_051414_Met ireann.jpg

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2023 07:48AM

Satellite imagery as Agnes in a very early stage of development north of the Azores. The cluster further west is a trailing feature due in by later Thursday.

(this will likely update so check UTC tag on the image)

maccydoodies · 26-09-2023 08:33AM

Hey guys. What's the likelihood of flights to and from Dublin being affected Wednesday afternoon?

Widdensushi · 26-09-2023 09:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157625#Comment_121157625

What do you mean you are calling for? Contact met eireann or politicians?

Thewife · 26-09-2023 09:15AM

I think he means he’s predicting what will or should happen🤷🏻‍♀️ it’s a figure of speech rather than a statement of fact.

Beechwoodspark · 26-09-2023 09:18AM

When can we expect the storm to hit Dublin tomorrow? And when will it pass?

Much appreciated

er1983 · 26-09-2023 09:42AM

How long will this storm last?

JanuarySnowstor · 26-09-2023 09:59AM

Models are backing away from the worst case this morning. I'd say orange warning for coastal counties of the South/Southwest looks to be it! Hence the lack of posts on here...

Dazler97 · 26-09-2023 10:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157850#Comment_121157850

I'm saying that there will be orange warnings and a possible red warning in my opinion

Cork2021 · 26-09-2023 10:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121158012#Comment_121158012

UKMO is still bullish this morning. Hard to call

adocholiday · 26-09-2023 10:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121158033#Comment_121158033

Yep and ICON 6z just rolled out showing mid-orange level gusts for Cork, Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow (although that model tends to exaggerate the wind speeds) so might still be a sting in it

JanuarySnowstor · 26-09-2023 10:13AM

Let's see what gfs says, rolling soon....

Either way an orange is surely imminent

amandstu · 26-09-2023 10:14AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157548#Comment_121157548

Is that a 90degree clockwise angle from the direction of travel ?

If the system tracks northward through Ireland that would put the strongest winds on its Eastern flank?

Is that fairly true generally speaking?

CirrusBusiness · 26-09-2023 10:19AM

00z for reference.

nacho libre · 26-09-2023 10:25AM

Just a fairly windy day for the north west of the country as opposed to stormy. Rain will be more of an issue possibly here. Stormy further south, which will cause damage, but it's unlikely be a major storm inland in the south and east, barring coastal fringes and offshore. I hope the next storm tracks across off the North West Coast of Ireland so we can get a more widespread storm, preferably at night.

CirrusBusiness · 26-09-2023 10:38AM

Arome has the higher gusts penetrating the SE. Granted it's the 00z. Let's see what the next batch shows.

adocholiday · 26-09-2023 10:39AM

Cork and Kerry gone orange for rain, and GFS roll out looks like MT called it right. The SW gets a bit of an upgrade on immediate landfall, but then downgraded beyond that

Cork2021 · 26-09-2023 10:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121158160#Comment_121158160

Orange rain warning

titan18 · 26-09-2023 10:43AM

Surely we'll get an orange wind warning at least too (wouldn't mind a red)

munsterlegend · 26-09-2023 11:09AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121158182#Comment_121158182

You would think so considering we seem to get a yellow for any bit of wind at all.

pauldry · 26-09-2023 11:13AM

Going in a direct line following the flow arrows etc from the Southwest on windy.com I end up with the centre of the Low landing on the dot in between the plus. Very pointless I know but a guide to where I'd say low centre might end up