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Will the good times ever return?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,665 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Sorry, that was my point. You said a property benefits from public works.

    Surely public works are for the public, the people living in property. How does an unoccupied property benefit?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    If renting is exploitation, then all goods and services are exploitation.

    exploitation - "the act of using someone or something unfairly for your own advantage"

    A mortgage is cheaper than rent, but a large amount people are locked into rent, that would prefer to buy.

    It's not like buying food (another thing we need), food is available from many vendors across the country at fair and reasonable prices.

    If you want to move somewhere for 6 months, and leave the property vacant in a rent pressure zone, that's fine with me. I don't even think you should be taxed so long as it's your main family home.

    Any additional properties you have that are empty however should be taxed heavily if left empty.

    I've already explained the issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    If you think private rentals are unfair. Ban them completely.

    LL's have nothing to do with housing supply, or the shortage thereof. It's baffling why you think they do.

    You'll still not explained WHY Private Rental its exploration or why it's unfair. If there was surplus of supply OR surplus public housing. Would a private rental still be exploitative?

    Renting is capitalism. If you want housing run under a marxist ideology then you'll need a change of pollical system.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Regional North West Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 13,059 Mod ✭✭✭✭miamee


    Fun fact - for young people and children, now is their 'good times' and they will look back on it fondly with their same rose tinted glasses we all have as we get older.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    You'll still not explained WHY Private Rental its exploration or why it's unfair. If there was surplus of supply OR surplus public housing. Would a private rental still be exploitative?

    But there is a huge surplus, I've already shown you the census figures.

    People are sitting on them empty or AirBnB'ing them.

    It's unfair because the average rent in Dublin is €2,344 and the average Mortgage in Dublin is €1,340. No one in their right mind would pay that unless they locked in. Like how can a bank NOT give someone a mortgage when they've demonstrated an ability to pay nearly twice that over X years? "Oh well you've got no savings... so... tough". or "We don't think you're job is very stable" or "Well you're a only a one income household". It's bulls!t And on top of that, the market itself has SFA regulation.

    If you don't see how that's completely unfair then, I dunno, maybe you should take a course in ethics or something?

    Renting is capitalism. If you want housing run under a marxist ideology then you'll need a change of pollical system.

    If you only see red and blue economics then you're a lost cause.... The red scare ended in 1957.

    Post edited by Beta Ray Bill on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




    What your describing is not fairness (whatever that means) its affordability. Where does it say there you want to live should be affordable for you?

    Just because somewhere was unoccupied during the census doesn't mean someone is sitting on it empty. Even if was empty, so what? Is there a rule that your house has to be occupied 100% of the time.

    As for banks, last time they ignored their rules it nearly took down the whole banking system. You want to do that again? It didn't make the rich poor and the poor rich, if thats what your hoping for.

    You've still not demonstrated how its exploitation to rent something.

    You might want to tell Putin the red scare ended. He doesn't seem to have heard.

    Post edited by Flinty997 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    The market is heavily regulated. There are rules in place to prevent people without savings, with unstable jobs etc from getting a mortgage. This is due to the risk that giving them a loan causes, to them in the case of negative equity and to the banks and wider society in the case of a downturn. We tried what you are suggesting before and it didn't end well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,057 ✭✭✭Glenomra


    Brilliant topic



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    Just because somewhere was unoccupied during the census doesn't mean someone is sitting on it empty.

    Clearly there were some people that were just not home that night... but 166,000??? c'mon now.

    Even if was empty, so what? Is there a rule that your house has to be occupied 100% of the time.

    There isn't one, there needs to be though. (not 100% though). Something along the lines of: "If it's not being full time rented/occupied X months of the year then Y tax is applicable."

    You might want to tell Putin the red scare ended. He doesn't seem to have heard.

    I'm referring to Socialism, and Putin is a more fascist than communist.

    Look, I get the points you making and you make them well. You believe in open market and everyone for themselves type approach/take what you can. I'm more socialist as I get older (although I did think like you when I was younger, so I get your arguments)

    But the reality is this, and it's a cold and harsh reality:

    If the housing situation and "good times" aren't fixed soon: The younger generation are gonna hand the keys over to the RA.

    I do not want that. (I doubt very much you do either)

    So you need to take your pick. A more liberal/sustainable attitude toward housing and making things more attainable, or the RA?

    I agree with you both that Subprime lending played a part in the financial crisis, but CDO's played a far bigger part (IMHO). People and Orgs took on BB (and below) risk that they were told was AAA. And when it did go bang everything was lost.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Theres only about 48k of that figure are long term vacant and could be in the middle of nowhere and not fit for habitation. Who knows.

    Sub prime lending? Ireland's Financial crisis was created at home by banks over borrowing and a govt that allowed them to to do it. The same govt fuelled the economy by pumping primary the property market and credit bubble. That was all home grown. So when the sub prime crisis happened, Ireland economy was a house of cards. You've already suggested going down the same route of letting the leash off the banks again. Madness.

    I'm not advocating an open market for all housing. The only way to fix this is stop boom and bust economic policies. Build a % housing that can't be commoditized. Stop overheating the economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    Subprime lending in Ireland was the entire reason for our financial collapse. Added to the fact that revenue from the bubble was used to increase spending (welfare and PS salaries) and reduce taxation, it meant when things collapsed we were in a really bad state. The free availability of credit for banks to lend was an international issue, but ultimately we had all the tools needed to make sure we didn't have a credit fueled property bubble. Lots of other European countries had bubbles, but nothing like as catastrophic as ours.

    The government at the time could have taken away the Koolaid, but that would have meant doing something unpopular (which irish governments generally try to avoid at all cost, there would be a Kitty Holland article about a widowed father of 9 disabled children who is €50 below the lending requirements for his dream home and we would change the mortgage policy). The central bank rules prevent our moronic school teacher and solicitor politicians from being influenced by the media to make daft decisions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    The German regulator warned Ireland about Irish Banks borrowing in German well before the subprime crisis. The authorities, here basically stuck their fingers in their ears. Indeed the Govt here in my opinion seemed to deliberately distanced themselves from the Irish regulator, to keep the party going. Apart from the issues with the Irish regulator and the Central bank.

    It's the rules that are now in place, but weren't back then, which restrict Irish Banks now. Which certain posters wants dropped now so they can buy a gaff and join the party now.

    We've are still overheating the economy (just differently) which we can see in the issue with housing. It's not going to change until a Govt, decides to commit to a painful different approach to housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    If we learned anything the last time it is that banks, politicians and borrowers cannot accurately assess risk. The mortgage limits are the one thing keeping it somewhat sane, at least if there is another crash we won't 100% loans under water. Hopefully banks have also realised that mortgages in Ireland are at best semi-secured loans, but probably best to think of them as unsecured loans.



  • Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's probably for the accommodation and property thread but what are your extreme ideas on how to fix the shortage of property problem?

    Extreme problems require extreme solutions.

    Mine would be to CPO church land and build 1 or 2 bedroom accommodations only for elderly, and heavily encourage (with tax incentives if necessary) downsizing to free up family accommodation. There are far too many 3 and 4 bedroom homes occupied by 1 OAP in this country, who then complain they can't afford the heating bills which is a direct result of living in accommodation that is far bigger than they require. The sentimentality of hoarding keepsakes and calling over on Christmas Day will have to be foregone, in favour of living in more suitable accommodation for their needs. Doing this on church land can keep these elderly people in their community, rather than asking them to move to a new area where they know nobody.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    I wouldn't be throwing anyone out of their homes because they live in a big home. The whole idea is to fix the housing in a sustainable way.

    House's/properties that are not being rented long term should be taxed. There should also be a limit on the number of properties you can own as an individual. If you want to have more than two for example, you really need to set up a company, as you're effectively running a business.

    Subprime lending was the main contributor to our exposure to the financial crisis but it was not the cause. The whole idea of sub prime lending is that the bank accepts risk at a higher interest rate to mitigate that risk. CDO's were supposed to be made of AAA, AA and maybe a very small amount of below that. There was more junk put in than should have been (no regulation).

    It's like tripping (realization and default of CDO junk) and falling down some stairs (exposure to mislabeled subprime loans), if you fall down 2 stairs you'll be hurt but ok, if you fall down 20 stairs, you're gonna be very badly hurt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Sub prime is quite different the US where in some states you can give the key back. In Ireland you still (or did) keep the debt. Its so a small pool of banks and places to run from it.



  • Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Not throwing anyone out, just incentivising them. 1 elderly person struggling to heat a 4 bed semi d and unable to get up the stairs, effectively making half of the house redundant, is not a great use of housing stock. Anyway its a discussion for another forum.

    Your ideas are interesting. Somebody will be along to say you're communist looking to limit the number of properties a person can own in their own name.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,985 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    I actually know a stack of people that handed back the keys and left Ireland and never came back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Lot cheaper and less effort to get a stair lift on a grant and stay in the community you've lived in for decades. Families and carers staying over use the space.

    It's not like there's anything locally they can downsize to usually. Very little you'd be able to incentivise them with.

    It's not simply about occupancy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




  • Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    As I said in my first post, build community and accessible living on church grounds in every local area, so as to keep people in their community and not displace them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    By Sub prime in Ireland I mean lending 100% mortgages at 8-9x income, especially for those with relatively unstable jobs. It wasn't quite at the level of the US of course. Construction and related was making up more than 20% of the economy at the time. We were building 90k houses a year at one point. Many of those buying the properties were working in the industry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,676 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...thank god regulations in the shadow banking sectors are far more robust nowadays! nothing to see here!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,904 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Kids have alot more available to them than we had in the 80's. We had alot more than our parents had in 50's, and 60's



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,676 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...they certainly have access to more stuff, a lot of which is largely irrelevant to their most critical of needs, but on the other hand, theyre largely fcuked in trying to meet some of their most critical of needs, primarily related to property, so.....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,502 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    I'm not sure if he was implying Irish Mortgage holders (and that generation) were the cause of the crisis. Whereas it was down to the banks and the regulation of same. Out of curiosity looking at a recent article from 2019.

    Irish-resident securitisation vehicles are a significant part of the European CLO market. As of March 2019, the outstanding issuance of CLOs by Irish domiciled vehicles stood at €68bn. The total value of outstanding European CLOs was privately estimated at around €100bn in the same period. We think this underestimates the market’s size but, even if the true size of the market was double this figure, Ireland would still account for a large share of the European market. In line with global trends, the assets of Irish CLOs have grown rapidly in recent years, from just €15bn at the start of 2014 to €78bn by March 2019 (see chart 1). While the Central Bank of Ireland collects data from these entities, they are not prudentially regulated by the Bank.


    Irish borrowers constitute only a minor part of the portfolio (approximately €1.0bn), consisting solely of non-financial corporates. In comparison, Irish banks had approximately €41bn in loans outstanding with Irish NFCs in the same period.


    Will the good times return?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,904 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    You are talking about a minority here. Kids in the 80's had tougher issues that weren't protected against like these days.

    They are cater better for on the sports side, education side is better, food supply and variation is better.

    If the kids of now had to survive in the 80's they would struggle massively


    There will always be a minority but in general kids are way better off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,743 ✭✭✭boardise


    Unclear to me why you interject the nonsense term 'World Shite Centre' into your narrative. Assuming you intend to refer to the World Trade Centre, I would maintain that while many areas of the world suffer heavy consequences from international trade -we in Ireland are generally beneficiaries in regard to the access it grants us to a whole array of technological and other material goods.

    The WTC would have been part of the machinery that managed the plethora od negotiations , agreements and supply chains etc. from which we ultimately derive benefit. The attack on these buildings was a dastardly act which condemned thousands of innocent workers from all backgrounds to a grisly death. I don't think the destruction of the WTC should be subjected to such verbal vilification notwithstanding any legitimate of globalisation that could be advanced.

    We live in a menacing international climate with many contending blocs. We must choose sides. I stand with Europe . the US and more broadly the 'West. For better or worse -it's the civilisational complex where I was formed and where I belong.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,676 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...go again there! that 'minority' are starting to shout and scream, and theyre gonna stand up and express their 'minority' in the coming ge's! we have clearly completely fcuked up our property markets, to the point, a now rapidly growing 'minority' can no longer fulfill this critical need, its time for us older generations to take our heads out of our arses and except, we fcuked up!

    ...im a kid of the 80's, that grew up in an an under privileged neighborhood, a rapidly growing amount of the grandkids, i.e. the younger generations, are now in deep sh1t in regards their housing needs, we moved the requirement of the state to provide many with housing towards more market based approaches, which his now catastrophically failed, but lets keep pretending that this isnt happening, im sure this will work!

    ...everything is fine, we currently not experiencing a growth in radical outcomes such as voting outcomes, due to the above, everything is fine!



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