How long until we see €2 a litre and will it push more to EV's faster?

07-09-2023 01:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080337#Comment_121080337

than have to scrap them all when they're banned from urban areas etc before end of life.

Thats not a thing and whoever is saying it is very misinformed

Sales of new ICE will be banned from 2035 across the EU but existing vehicles will not be banned.

They may face access restrictions due to LEZ's etc but thats it

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 01:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080337#Comment_121080337

There is no financial incentive to buy a new EV vs a debt free second hand ICE.

The second hand ICE that can be picked up for 5k or so can do about 700km on one tank of fuel.

The second hand EV that can be picked up for 5k (if you are “lucky”) or so can do about 80km on one charge.

Some people don’t seem to understand this fact- they also don’t seem to understand, not everyone wants to get a 50k loan for a new or newish car (EV).

liamog · 07-09-2023 02:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080516#Comment_121080516

It may surprise you how much EV's have developed since 2010. The 10 year old used EVs people will be buying in 2033 will have much better capabilities than the 10 year old car's you can buy today. Leaf's available from that time had a realistic range of 125km.

Any ICEV ban going in to 2030, or hybrid ban from 2035 means we'll have a functioning used ICEV market well into 2050. The fear mongering of those who are resistant to change is unreal.

starlit · 07-09-2023 02:05PM

I would say it reach €2 before or by Christmas the way things are going despite proposals to reduce electricity charges in November. I still don’t know how feasible EV’s are for long motorway driving and driving in traffic.

Short journeys on country drives and quick trips into towns are ok as there is better access to EV chargers in towns but you are going no where without your own charger at home.

I would not consider an EV yet until the batteries and charging network improves regardless of what EV I would consider.

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 02:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080597#Comment_121080597

And what about now?

Which is exactly what I’m talking about.

liamog · 07-09-2023 02:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080626#Comment_121080626

In 2013 there were 49 new EVs sold in Ireland. So long as the market for 10 year old EVs meets the supply of 49 cars we're good. The only way to increase the supply of 10 year old cars is to sell them today and then wait 10 years for them to be available as 10 year old ones. This is why I think it's disingenuous for people to argue that EV's don't work today because the 10 year old used models aren't yet available.

I agree 10 years ago that the EVs available on the market were not ready for the mainstream, but could fit into some very specific niches. 2019 was the first year that EVs hit >1% of new sales. Since then it's only increased as the suitability for the majority is now there. The 10 year old used market is obviously going to lag behind.

josip · 07-09-2023 02:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080621#Comment_121080621

Whatever about the other considerations, I think everyone would agree that a one-pedal EV is way more pleasant in stop-go driving than a manual ICE.

Miscreant · 07-09-2023 02:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080621#Comment_121080621

Long motorway driving in an EV is a doddle with the newer models (post 2018) and larger battery sizes. The longest motorway in Ireland is the M7 at 166kms. Dublin to Galway is about 200kms (I do this regularly in my EV), Dublin Airport to Killarney is 310kms or thereabouts and all can be done in one shot with an EV as long as you have charging at your destination (and a reasonably light foot). An example of long distance driving I can see a modern EV not making it in one go would be somewhere like Clonakilty to Carndonagh or elsewhere in Donegal (500kms or more) but I doubt many make that trip without stopping for a break anyway.

I do believe that fuel prices will hit close to or at the €2 mark by Christmas though. They are already tipping €1.80 and above near me and there is another price increase coming in October. Chances are that the budget will also include another hit so the €2 by Christmas looks like a very real possibility. With these prices, people may start to curtail their driving. It is very difficult for people to afford the current prices to fill a tank, not even thinking about any increases further down the line. Couple all of this with the increases in grocery prices and mortgage interest rates, a lot more people are going to be in difficulty over the coming year! I don't know what the solution to all of this will be.

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 02:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080753#Comment_121080753

Ok but would you agree with my previous statement that AT THE MOMENT:

There is no financial incentive to buy a new EV vs a debt free second hand ICE.

The second hand ICE that can be picked up for 5k or so can do about 700km on one tank of fuel.

The second hand EV that can be picked up for 5k (if you are “lucky”) or so can do about 80km on one charge.

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 02:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080768#Comment_121080768

IMO that benefit does not outweigh getting myself into massive debt to purchase an EV that suits my driving habits.

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080796#Comment_121080796

Again you are not considering the €700pm to service the initial 50k outlay for said EV that can do these trips vs the 5k or so needed for a debt free ICE that can do these trips in a “doddle”.

Clareman · 07-09-2023 02:42PM

For me WFH has meant that the need for 2 ICE isn't needed anymore, range anxiety is still a massive thing, I couldn't imagine having 2 EVs at home, but could have 1 ICE and 1 EV. 1 thing that I can see impacting the increase in EVs is the cost of electricty as well as the cost of a charger, it might be "only" ~€700 but the comment I've heard is "you'll buy a lot of diesel for €700" but as with heat pumps as they become standard more and more this anxiety will drop.

Miscreant · 07-09-2023 02:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080855#Comment_121080855

I am acutely aware of the economics involved here, thank you!

If you read what I quoted, I was addressing the question of not knowing whether long motorway driving or driving in traffic in an EV is practical. The OP made no mention of cost or economics, just practicality.

PokeHerKing · 07-09-2023 02:43PM

Not a chance that 2035 ban will actually come into play. Its lofty political spiel by politicians who may or may not be around when the piper calls.

I'll happily move to EV when it makes sense but I really don't see that being the case in the next 10 years. Happy to be wrong though.

liamog · 07-09-2023 03:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080830#Comment_121080830

No because I don't think the two markets are the same. People who buy new cars are not the same as people who buy 10 year old cars. It's a ridiculous comparison.

The drivetrains of the new and old car are meaningless in your statement.

07-09-2023 03:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080796#Comment_121080796

There is no chance that the budget will add an increase to petrol or diesel. They'll only be fresh off the back of 2 excise duty restorations being heavily publicised. It would be political suicide to announce another increase in October.

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 03:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080889#Comment_121080889

I would imagine the financial implications would play quite a large part.

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 03:33PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121081030#Comment_121081030

I haven’t said people who buy new cars are the same as people who buy old p year old cars.

Im telling you it makes no financial sense to buy a new EV when a debt free 5k ICE can do that job for you.

Obviously it’s not just finances that come into it for some people though.

tom1ie · 07-09-2023 03:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080898#Comment_121080898

Exactly- they’ll have to push out the date.

Clareman · 07-09-2023 03:39PM

Ireland is probably best suited for EV, Cork to Belfast is ~400km, Peugeot are about to come out with a 700km range battery, now I know there are so many variables in place for that kind of range but it should handle the trip from Cork to Belfast without stopping, depending on charging time it could mean that there isn't much of a fundamental difference between ICE and EV in Ireland soon enough.

ELM327 · 07-09-2023 03:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080830#Comment_121080830

I picked up a second hand leaf for 2.5k that can do 80-100km on a charge. Theres no reason not to go EV. For 5k you may get a leaf30 or an early zoe, both of which are much better optiions than my leaf24.

In the days of 2 euro petrol I can see more and more people re-evaluating. I have multiple fossil fuel classics btw (retroshite really) so I'm not anti fossil fuels, just into saving money.

liamog · 07-09-2023 03:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121081164#Comment_121081164

Exactly why it's a ridiculous comparison.

If you change the drivetrain of the new car from an EV to a Diesel your statement doesn't change, and yet every year around 100,000 new cars are sold.

Your issue isn't with the drivetrain, your issue appears to be begrudging people spending money on things they want to.

07-09-2023 03:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121081167#Comment_121081167

I doubt they'll need to. Between more and more EV models coming on the market, the second hand market maturing and ICE manufacturers stopping development on ICE engines, the issue will take care of itself.

Ireland gone from <1% EV share to nearly 20% EV share in a few short years (thats not including hybrids).

Clareman · 07-09-2023 04:12PM

It's a new technology, early adapters are always big advocates for the technology, I know I was when 1 of the smartphones, but people couldn't see the reason for the extra cost, same with tablets when people said you could just use your laptop/phone.

Personally, I WFH and have had to buy a battery booster pack because I'm doing so many short trips in my car that often the battery doesn't have enough charge to start the car, that cost me ~€100, once the car give up the ghost, or it costs too much to get ready for the annual NCT then I'm going to go full EV and get as much bang for my buck as possible, I don't think I'll go brand new though so I'm hoping the second hand market continues to grow.