Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

705k for a new build 4 bed in Clay Farm. Assuming you can save up say 75k you’re borrowing 630k there between a mortgage and the first home scheme.

There’s no reality in which prices like these are sustainable in the current interest rate environment. Between this and the mad prices for new builds out in Cherrywood, who is paying these prices? I think I read something about the Indian government subsidising their own citizens relocation to here and they are largely the ones buying at these prices, surely not??

On a 35 year mortgage at 4% (fixed for life with Avant). That works out roughly as €2,800 a month. €1,400 a month each for a couple. €2,650 if you fixed on the 5 year AIB green rate, and hope rates come down 5 years from now.

Slightly more than the rent on a 2 bed apartment in South Dublin/ North Wicklow these days…but for a 4 bed house.

And unlike the rent, in 20 years time the mortgage will still be €2,800 whereas your rent is going to go up 2% year on year, and that’s if you don’t get evicted. Your salary should also be rising year on year quickly making the mortgage much more affordable.

It’s a no brainer financially if you’re currently exposed to the rental market without government support and can get the required mortgage approval

There is no such scheme

Also monthly mortgage would still be lower than renting a standard 2-3Bed apartment in south Dublin today even at those high mortgage rates

Those 4 beds in Clay Farm actually represent quite good value at €705K I think when it comes to €/square foot, definitely compared to many 2nd hand properties in Dublin! €404 per square foot. I sold a small 3-bed just up the road from there last year, which 2nd hand of course needed a bit of work and was not A-rated BER, for €500/square foot, and on my house tracker from back then loads of houses in Dublin 18 sold for €500+/square foot according to the PPR.

I'd assume your fictional tech couple would just brazen it out and stay in the house while paying a tiny monthly sum off the interest.

Just like every the holders of every other failed mortgage that should have been evicted but wasn't.

Of course FTBs buying 700k mortgages are relatively small as percentage of total, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty. The average country wide doesn’t tell you the full picture and unfortunately the lending stats don’t give a full distribution that I can see.

Average property value country wide for an FTB - €340k

Average property value bought by FTB in Dublin - c€410k

Average FTB in South County Dublin not available but certainly higher than €410k. Call it €450k.

If the average in SCD is €450k, there is certainly a chunk at €700k and well beyond. Anecdotes are rarely useful and are naturally skewed by an individuals own social circles but I know a significant number of FTBs who’ve bought houses for €700k and (much) more.

Easier said than done. In a normal market you could sell up, move in to a rental for 6-12 months to allow you time to purchase a new house.

But with no rentals available, people are choosing to sit this out rather than sell up, so less houses for sale and round it goes.

Before things went bonkers you could rent a decent house for 6 months at €1200/m which would cost €7,200. I know plenty folks who did exactly this and it took the stress out of moving if they hadnt found the right house when they went to exchange contracts.

Now same house now would be 3 times that to rent, assuming you could find one, so this is no longer an option. Ive had several agents all say that this is a contributing factor to the lack of second houses for sale.

I don't think I know of a single person who has ever done this in reality while sizing up. Even family members back in the late 90s/early 2000s when things were different.

It was always sell your house and buy at the same time in a chain.

So what you're saying is, it isn't normal to have rental properties available for rent. ahh...I see where I'm going wrong now 🤪

I just sold and bought (contracts signed both sides) chained. Nearly all properties I looked at were in a chain or investors selling.

These will all sell out on private sales appointments I would guess. Far too cheap in current market.

There's always probate, ex-rentals, and new builds hitting the market. Probate in particular makes a big chunk of non-chain sales.